Modelling A.I. in Economics

GTAC Stock: A Sinking Ship?

Outlook: Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GTAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 42

Key Points

  1. Active Learning (ML) for GTAC stock price prediction process.
  2. Factor
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network
  4. Decision Making
  5. Decision Making

GTAC Stock Price Forecast

We consider Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GTAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GTAC Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Factor)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GTAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GTAC stock holders

a:Best response for GTAC target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 In statistics, a factor is a variable that can influence the value of another variable. Factors can be categorical or continuous. Categorical factors have a limited number of possible values, such as gender (male or female) or blood type (A, B, AB, or O). Continuous factors can have an infinite number of possible values, such as height or weight. Factors can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable. For example, a study might find that there is a relationship between gender and height. In this case, gender would be the independent variable, height would be the dependent variable, and the factor would be gender.6,7

 

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GTAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based GTAC Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  2. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  3. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
  4. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GTAC Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetB1B3
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowCC
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Google's Stock Price Set to Soar in the Next 3 Months. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  3. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  5. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  6. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
  7. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is GTAC stock expected to rise?
A: GTAC stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Factor and it is concluded that dominant strategy for GTAC stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is GTAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend GTAC Stock.
Q: Is Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Global Technology Acquisition Corp. I Class A Ordinary Shares is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GTAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for GTAC is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for GTAC stock?
A: GTAC target price forecast: Speculative Trend
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