Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is ATER Stock Buy or Sell?

Outlook: Aterian Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Aterian Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ATER stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 2

Key Points

  1. Statistical Inference (ML) for ATER stock price prediction process.
  2. Pearson Correlation
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  4. Trading Interaction
  5. What is statistical models in machine learning?

ATER Stock Price Forecast

We consider Aterian Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ATER stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ATER Aterian Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Pearson Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATER stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ATER stock holders

a:Best response for ATER target price


Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 Pearson correlation, also known as Pearson's product-moment correlation, is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables. It is a statistical measure that assesses the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The sign of the correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship, while the magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0.9 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a correlation coefficient of 0.2 indicates a weak positive correlation.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

ATER Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based ATER Stock Prediction Model

  1. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  2. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  3. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
  4. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ATER Aterian Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Income StatementCBa1
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  3. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  4. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  5. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  6. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  7. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ATER stock expected to rise?
A: ATER stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Pearson Correlation and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ATER stock is Hold
Q: Is ATER stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATER Stock.
Q: Is Aterian Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Aterian Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ATER stock?
A: The consensus rating for ATER is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for ATER stock?
A: ATER target price forecast: Hold

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