Modelling A.I. in Economics

MGRB Stock: A Risky Bet for Investors

Outlook: Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Stepwise Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MGRB stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 23

Key Points

  1. Active Learning (ML) for MGRB stock price prediction process.
  2. Stepwise Regression
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  4. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  5. Stock Rating

MGRB Stock Price Forecast

We consider Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MGRB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MGRB Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Stepwise Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MGRB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of MGRB stock holders

a:Best response for MGRB target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 Stepwise regression is a method of variable selection in which variables are added or removed from a model one at a time, based on their statistical significance. There are two main types of stepwise regression: forward selection and backward elimination. In forward selection, variables are added to the model one at a time, starting with the variable with the highest F-statistic. The F-statistic is a measure of how much improvement in the model is gained by adding the variable. Variables are added to the model until no variable adds a statistically significant improvement to the model.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

MGRB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based MGRB Stock Prediction Model

  1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
  2. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
  3. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  4. Measurement of a financial asset or financial liability and classification of recognised changes in its value are determined by the item's classification and whether the item is part of a designated hedging relationship. Those requirements can create a measurement or recognition inconsistency (sometimes referred to as an 'accounting mismatch') when, for example, in the absence of designation as at fair value through profit or loss, a financial asset would be classified as subsequently measured at fair value through profit or loss and a liability the entity considers related would be subsequently measured at amortised cost (with changes in fair value not recognised). In such circumstances, an entity may conclude that its financial statements would provide more relevant information if both the asset and the liability were measured as at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MGRB Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B3
Income StatementCaa2B1
Balance SheetB2Caa2
Leverage RatiosBa2B3
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  3. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  4. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  5. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  7. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is MGRB stock expected to rise?
A: MGRB stock prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for MGRB stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is MGRB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend MGRB Stock.
Q: Is Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Affiliated Managers Group Inc. 4.750% Junior Subordinated Notes due 2060 is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MGRB stock?
A: The consensus rating for MGRB is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for MGRB stock?
A: MGRB target price forecast: Speculative Trend

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