Modelling A.I. in Economics

ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RETO stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 12

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) for RETO stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  4. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  5. Nash Equilibria

RETO Stock Price Forecast

We consider ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of RETO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RETO ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RETO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of RETO stock holders

a:Best response for RETO target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

RETO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) based RETO Stock Prediction Model

  1. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  2. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess a modified time value of money element in accordance with paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the requirements related to the modification of the time value of money element in paragraphs B4.1.9B–B4.1.9D. (See also paragraph 42R of IFRS 7.)
  4. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

RETO ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  3. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  5. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  6. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  7. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is RETO stock expected to rise?
A: RETO stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Linear Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for RETO stock is Buy
Q: Is RETO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RETO Stock.
Q: Is ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ReTo Eco-Solutions Inc. Common Shares is Buy and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RETO stock?
A: The consensus rating for RETO is Buy.
Q: What is the forecast for RETO stock?
A: RETO target price forecast: Buy
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