Should You Buy AEO Right Now?

Name: Should You Buy AEO Right Now?
Uploaded: Monday, November 13, 2023
Duration: 37 min 14 s
Description: Should You Buy AEO Right Now?

Outlook: American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) for AEO stock price prediction process.
Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
How do predictive algorithms actually work?
Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

AEO Stock Price Forecast

We consider American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AEO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEO American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)^6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month

\sum_{i = 1}^{n} (r_{i})

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of AEO stock holders

a:Best response for AEO target price

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.^6,7

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

AEO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) based AEO Stock Prediction Model

Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AEO American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B3
Income Statement	Ba3	Caa2
Balance Sheet	B2	B2
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	B1
Cash Flow	B2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
Chernozhukov V, Escanciano JC, Ichimura H, Newey WK. 2016b. Locally robust semiparametric estimation. arXiv:1608.00033 [math.ST]
A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is AEO stock expected to rise?
A: AEO stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for AEO stock is Sell
Q: Is AEO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEO Stock.
Q: Is American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Eagle Outfitters Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEO stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEO is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for AEO stock?
A: AEO target price forecast: Sell

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