Should You Buy Now or Wait? CX Stock Forecast

Jorgenson, Dale W.; Weitzman, Martin L.; ZXhang, Yoshua X; Haxo, Yann M; Mat , Ying X

Outlook: Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.⁵ According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

Multi-Task Learning (ML) for CX stock price prediction process.
Linear Regression
How do predictive algorithms actually work?
What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
Market Signals

CX Stock Price Forecast

We consider Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CX Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Linear Regression)^6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks

R = (\begin{matrix} 1 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 \end{matrix})

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CX stock holders

a:Best response for CX target price

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.⁵ In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.^6,7

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How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

CX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based CX Stock Prediction Model

An entity's risk management is the main source of information to perform the assessment of whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. This means that the management information (or analysis) used for decision-making purposes can be used as a basis for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CX Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba1
Income Statement	Caa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba1	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is CX stock expected to rise?
A: CX stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Linear Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for CX stock is Sell
Q: Is CX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CX Stock.
Q: Is Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CX is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for CX stock?
A: CX target price forecast: Sell

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