Outlook: Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

## Summary

Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

## Key Points

1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for TX stock price prediction process.
2. Polynomial Regression
3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
4. How do you pick a stock?
5. Operational Risk

## TX Stock Price Forecast

We consider Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TX Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value)
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

F(Polynomial Regression)6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TX stock holders

a:Best response for TX target price

Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.6,7

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### TX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

### Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based TX Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
2. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
4. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

### TX Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

## References

1. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
2. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
3. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
5. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
7. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is TX stock expected to rise?
A: TX stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for TX stock is Hold
Q: Is TX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TX Stock.
Q: Is Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing ten shares USD1.00 par value) is Hold and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TX stock?
A: The consensus rating for TX is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for TX stock?
A: TX target price forecast: Hold
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