Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will CBZ Stock Be in 1 Year?

Outlook: CBIZ Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

CBIZ Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBZ stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 23

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) for CBZ stock price prediction process.
  2. Paired T-Test
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  4. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  5. Decision Making

CBZ Stock Price Forecast

We consider CBIZ Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CBZ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBZ CBIZ Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Paired T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBZ stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CBZ stock holders

a:Best response for CBZ target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

CBZ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based CBZ Stock Prediction Model

  1. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
  2. For the purposes of applying the requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a), credit risk is different from asset-specific performance risk. Asset-specific performance risk is not related to the risk that an entity will fail to discharge a particular obligation but instead it is related to the risk that a single asset or a group of assets will perform poorly (or not at all).
  3. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  4. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CBZ CBIZ Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowB1B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  3. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  6. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  7. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CBZ stock?
A: CBZ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is CBZ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBZ Stock.
Q: Is CBIZ Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CBIZ Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBZ stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBZ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CBZ stock?
A: The prediction period for CBZ is 1 Year
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