Modelling A.I. in Economics

Where Will WVVI Stock Be in 16 Weeks?

Outlook: Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the WVVI stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.5 According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 1

Key Points

  1. Multi-Instance Learning (ML) for WVVI stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  4. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  5. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

WVVI Stock Price Forecast

We consider Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of WVVI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WVVI Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WVVI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of WVVI stock holders

a:Best response for WVVI target price


Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

WVVI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Instance Learning (ML) based WVVI Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.
  2. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
  3. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  4. For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

WVVI Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B2
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  2. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  3. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  4. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  5. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  7. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is WVVI stock expected to rise?
A: WVVI stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for WVVI stock is Hold
Q: Is WVVI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WVVI Stock.
Q: Is Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WVVI stock?
A: The consensus rating for WVVI is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for WVVI stock?
A: WVVI target price forecast: Hold

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