Modelling A.I. in Economics

2U Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.

Outlook: 2U Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

2U Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TWOU stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 43

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for TWOU stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. What is a prediction confidence?
  4. Can machine learning predict?
  5. Investment Risk

TWOU Stock Price Forecast

We consider 2U Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TWOU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TWOU 2U Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TWOU stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of TWOU stock holders

a:Best response for TWOU target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

TWOU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based TWOU Stock Prediction Model

  1. There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
  2. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.
  3. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  4. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

TWOU 2U Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  2. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  4. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  5. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  6. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  7. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is TWOU stock expected to rise?
A: TWOU stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for TWOU stock is Hold
Q: Is TWOU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TWOU Stock.
Q: Is 2U Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for 2U Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TWOU stock?
A: The consensus rating for TWOU is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for TWOU stock?
A: TWOU target price forecast: Hold

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