Modelling A.I. in Economics

ABEO Stock: A Sinking Ship? (Forecast)

Outlook: Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ABEO stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 3

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for ABEO stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
  3. What is prediction model?
  4. Can stock prices be predicted?
  5. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

ABEO Stock Price Forecast

We consider Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ABEO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ABEO Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ABEO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ABEO stock holders

a:Best response for ABEO target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

ABEO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based ABEO Stock Prediction Model

  1. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
  2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.
  4. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ABEO Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba1
Income StatementCBa3
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  2. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  4. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  7. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ABEO stock expected to rise?
A: ABEO stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ABEO stock is Hold
Q: Is ABEO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ABEO Stock.
Q: Is Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Abeona Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ABEO stock?
A: The consensus rating for ABEO is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for ABEO stock?
A: ABEO target price forecast: Hold

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