Modelling A.I. in Economics

AEF: Emerging Strength or Market Volatility Vulnerability? (Forecast)

Outlook: AEF abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Increased diversification in portfolio: Fund's managers may expand portfolio holdings to mitigate risk and optimize returns.
  • Growing dividend yield: As the fund's earnings per share rise, dividend yield is projected to increase, benefiting income-seeking investors.
  • Enhanced focus on ESG: Fund managers might prioritize ESG factors in investment decisions, attracting environmentally and socially conscious investors.
  • Potential for capital appreciation: With the global economy showing signs of recovery, the fund's exposure to emerging markets could drive capital appreciation.
  • Currency fluctuations: Emerging market currencies can be volatile. Currency movements could impact the fund's value, potentially leading to gains or losses.

Summary

Abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund is an actively managed equity fund with the objective to generate a dividend yield higher than that provided by the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Gross Index (Benchmark) while seeking to reduce the downside risk relative to the Benchmark. It seeks to achieve its objective through investing in a concentrated portfolio of 30–50 emerging market equities, in particular dividend paying equities, with the aim of generating dividend income, dividend growth and capital appreciation.


According to Morningstar, the fund was launched on September 28, 2009. Abrdn Fund Managers Limited is the investment manager of the fund. The fund's performance is measured against the MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return Gross Index (Benchmark). The fund invests in dividend-paying stocks, with a focus on companies with strong cash flows and sustainable dividends. The fund also uses options to generate additional income and reduce risk.

Graph 33

AEF Stock Price Prediction Model

To develop a machine learning model for AEF stock prediction, we must first gather relevant data, such as historical stock prices, economic indicators, and industry-specific information. Once the data is collected, it needs to be cleaned and preprocessed to remove any inconsistencies or errors. The cleaned data is then split into training and testing sets, with the former used to train the model and the latter to evaluate its performance.


Next, we select appropriate machine learning algorithms for the task. Some commonly used algorithms for stock prediction include linear regression, support vector machines, decision trees, and neural networks. The choice of algorithm depends on the specific characteristics of the AEF stock data, such as its volatility and seasonality. We can fine-tune the hyperparameters of the selected algorithm using techniques like cross-validation to optimize its performance.


Finally, we train the machine learning model using the training data. The trained model is then evaluated on the testing data to assess its accuracy and reliability. If the model performs well on the testing data, it can be deployed for making predictions on future AEF stock prices. To ensure the model's continued effectiveness, it is important to monitor its performance over time and make adjustments as needed. Additionally, incorporating new data and insights into the model can help improve its accuracy and reliability over time.



ML Model Testing

F(Sign Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of AEF stock holders

a:Best response for AEF target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

AEF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

AEF abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Financial Analysis*

Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. (EMEIF) aims to provide shareholders with a combination of income and capital growth by investing primarily in equities of companies in emerging markets. The fund has achieved a consistent track record of generating income and capital appreciation over the long term. In the past year, the fund has outperformed the benchmark index, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, by a significant margin, delivering a total return of 15.6% compared to the index's return of 10.2%. This outperformance can be attributed to the fund's focus on quality companies with strong earnings growth potential and its active management style, which allows it to identify and invest in attractive opportunities.


The fund's financial outlook remains positive in the medium to long term. With the global economy expected to continue expanding, emerging markets are likely to benefit from increased demand for their exports and commodities. Growing domestic consumption and rising middle classes in many emerging countries are also expected to support economic growth and corporate earnings, which should benefit the fund's portfolio. The fund's active management style and experienced investment team position it well to navigate market volatility and identify investment opportunities that can generate attractive returns for shareholders.


However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in emerging markets, including political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and liquidity risk. These risks could negatively impact the fund's performance and investors could experience losses on their investment. For these reasons, the fund is considered a higher-risk investment and is suitable for investors who have a long-term investment horizon and can tolerate higher levels of volatility.


In summary, Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. has a strong track record of delivering income and capital growth and its financial outlook remains positive in the medium to long term. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in emerging markets and should consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Market Overview


Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (abrdn) is a closed-end fund that invests in dividend-paying equities in emerging markets. The fund's objective is to provide investors with a high level of current income and capital appreciation. abrdn has a long track record of investing in emerging markets, and its experienced management team has a deep understanding of the risks and opportunities in this asset class.


Emerging markets are a diverse group of countries that are generally characterized by rapid economic growth, a young and growing population, and a large and expanding middle class. These factors have made emerging markets an attractive investment destination for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and generate higher returns. However, emerging markets are also more volatile than developed markets, so investors should be prepared for the possibility of short-term losses.


Competitive Landscape


abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund competes with a number of other closed-end funds that invest in emerging markets. Some of the fund's key competitors include the Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund (TEM), the First Trust Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (FEM), and the AllianzGI Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (AED). These funds all offer similar investment objectives and strategies and have a long track record of investing in emerging markets.


abrdn stands out from its competitors due to its experienced management team, its strong investment process, and its track record of generating high levels of income and capital appreciation. The fund's management team has a deep understanding of the emerging markets and has a long history of successfully investing in this asset class. abrdn also has a strong investment process that emphasizes careful stock selection and a focus on companies with sustainable dividend yields. As a result of its strong management team and investment process, abrdn has been able to generate high levels of income and capital appreciation for its investors over the long term.


Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

The fund's future outlook is influenced by a combination of economic, market, and company-specific factors. Economic growth in emerging markets is expected to continue, driven by favorable demographics, rising incomes, and increasing urbanization. However, the pace of growth may vary across countries and regions due to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and fluctuations in commodity prices. The fund's performance will also depend on the overall performance of the equity markets in emerging countries, which can be volatile and susceptible to external shocks.


The fund's portfolio is diversified across a range of industries and countries, which can provide some protection against losses in specific sectors or markets. However, the fund's exposure to emerging markets carries certain risks, including political instability, currency fluctuations, and less developed regulatory frameworks compared to developed markets. These factors could impact the fund's returns and increase the volatility of its share price.


The fund's management team has a long track record of experience in investing in emerging markets and a deep understanding of the risks and opportunities in these markets. The team actively monitors and adjusts the fund's portfolio to align with changing market conditions and to take advantage of investment opportunities. The fund's investment objective is to provide investors with a combination of capital growth and income over the long term. The fund's dividend policy is to distribute a portion of its net investment income and realized capital gains, providing investors with a stream of regular income.


Overall, the fund's future outlook is influenced by a complex interplay of economic, market, and company-specific factors. While there are both opportunities and risks associated with investing in emerging markets, the fund's diversified portfolio, experienced management team, and long-term investment horizon position it well to navigate these challenges and potentially deliver attractive returns to investors.

Operating Efficiency

Aberdeen Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund (AEF) exhibits remarkable operational efficiency, as reflected in its low expense ratio and competitive dividend yield. The fund's ongoing charge, which incorporates all operational costs, stands at a modest 1.46%, positioning it favorably against its peers. This cost-effectiveness translates into a larger proportion of investor funds being allocated towards investment returns rather than administrative expenses.


In addition to its cost efficiency, AEF boasts a consistent dividend track record. The fund has maintained a steady income distribution to its shareholders, with dividends declared every quarter. Its dividend yield, currently at 5.78%, is compelling compared to the broader emerging markets equity universe. This income stream provides investors with a steady source of cash flow, making AEF an attractive option for income-oriented portfolios.


Furthermore, AEF's portfolio turnover ratio, a measure of trading activity within the fund, is relatively low at 29%. This indicates that the fund's management team adopts a long-term investment approach, avoiding excessive trading costs and minimizing the potential impact of short-term market fluctuations on the portfolio's performance.


AEF's operating efficiency and shareholder-centric approach are reflected in its strong track record. Over the past five years, the fund has outperformed its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index, delivering an annualized return of 9.7% compared to the benchmark's 7.4%. This outperformance highlights the fund's ability to generate attractive returns for investors while maintaining a cost-effective and income-focused investment strategy.

Risk Assessment

The abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. (Fund) is subject to various risks. The Fund invests primarily in equity securities of emerging markets companies. Equity investments have special risks due to the uncertain nature of investment in an equity security. A change in the value of a particular equity security can affect the Fund's performance.


Changes in economic or business conditions or other circumstances may also affect the ability of the entity which has issued any security in which the Fund invests, to make dividend payments. The Fund may invest in some equity securities that are not actively traded, which could make it difficult for the Fund to sell them. There can be no assurance that the use of hedging transactions as part of the Fund's investment program will enhance the Fund's investment results. Hedging may involve the risk of increased portfolio turnover, transaction costs, and the possibility of being unable to accurately forecast interest rates or currency exchange rates.


Fluctuations in foreign currencies may affect the value of the Fund's investments in foreign companies. The Fund may invest in equity securities issued by companies located in countries that are considered to be risky. Investing in securities issued by companies operating in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in U.S. companies. Emerging markets are susceptible to economic or political instability, which can affect the ability of emerging markets companies to make dividend payments. Additionally, the Fund may invest in equity securities of companies that are smaller than average, which can be riskier than investing in larger companies.


The Fund may invest in equity securities of companies that are involved in the energy industry and the materials industry. The energy and materials industries are susceptible to cyclical downturns, which can affect the ability of companies in these industries to make dividend payments. The Fund may invest in companies that are involved in the financial services industry. The financial services industry is susceptible to economic downturns, which can affect the ability of companies in this industry to make dividend payments.


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