Modelling A.I. in Economics

ALAR Stock: A Risky Investment, But One with a lot of Potential

Outlook: Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : HoldSpeculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ALAR stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldSpeculative Trend

Graph 25

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for ALAR stock price prediction process.
  2. Multiple Regression
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  4. Dominated Move
  5. Game Theory

ALAR Stock Price Forecast

We consider Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALAR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ALAR Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldSpeculative Trend


F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALAR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ALAR stock holders

a:Best response for ALAR target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

ALAR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based ALAR Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
  2. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  3. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  4. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ALAR Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Income StatementBa3B2
Balance SheetCaa2B3
Leverage RatiosB3Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  2. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
  3. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  4. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  5. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  6. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  7. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ALAR stock expected to rise?
A: ALAR stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Multiple Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ALAR stock is HoldSpeculative Trend
Q: Is ALAR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldSpeculative Trend ALAR Stock.
Q: Is Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alarum Technologies Ltd. American Depositary Share is HoldSpeculative Trend and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALAR stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALAR is HoldSpeculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for ALAR stock?
A: ALAR target price forecast: HoldSpeculative Trend

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