Modelling A.I. in Economics

BCRX Stock: Set a stop-loss order

Outlook: BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BCRX stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 10

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for BCRX stock price prediction process.
  2. Paired T-Test
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  4. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  5. Why do we need predictive models?

BCRX Stock Price Forecast

We consider BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BCRX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Paired T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BCRX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BCRX stock holders

a:Best response for BCRX target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

BCRX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based BCRX Stock Prediction Model

  1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  4. If changes are made in addition to those changes required by interest rate benchmark reform to the financial asset or financial liability designated in a hedging relationship (as described in paragraphs 5.4.6–5.4.8) or to the designation of the hedging relationship (as required by paragraph 6.9.1), an entity shall first apply the applicable requirements in this Standard to determine if those additional changes result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting. If the additional changes do not result in the discontinuation of hedge accounting, an entity shall amend the formal designation of the hedging relationship as specified in paragraph 6.9.1.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BCRX BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Baa2
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  3. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
  4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  5. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  6. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  7. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is BCRX stock expected to rise?
A: BCRX stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for BCRX stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is BCRX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend BCRX Stock.
Q: Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BCRX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BCRX is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for BCRX stock?
A: BCRX target price forecast: Speculative Trend

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