Modelling A.I. in Economics

BIO Stock: Are We Headed for a Recession? (Forecast)

Outlook: Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Independent T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 26

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for BIO stock price prediction process.
  2. Independent T-Test
  3. Nash Equilibria
  4. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  5. Nash Equilibria

BIO Stock Price Forecast

We consider Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BIO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Independent T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BIO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BIO stock holders

a:Best response for BIO target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 An independent t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two independent samples. In an independent t-test, the data points in each sample are not related to each other. The independent t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The independent t-test is also a two-sample test, which means that it compares the means of two independent samples.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

BIO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based BIO Stock Prediction Model

  1. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
  2. When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  4. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba2
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetB2B2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  2. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  4. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  5. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is BIO stock expected to rise?
A: BIO stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for BIO stock is Sell
Q: Is BIO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIO Stock.
Q: Is Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BIO stock?
A: The consensus rating for BIO is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for BIO stock?
A: BIO target price forecast: Sell

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