Modelling A.I. in Economics

BKNG Stock Forecast: A Hold For The Next 6 Month

Outlook: Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is an American multinational corporation that operates an online travel agency. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. Booking Holdings offers a wide range of travel services, including hotel reservations, airline tickets, car rentals, and vacation packages. The company also operates a number of travel-related websites, including Booking.com, Kayak, and Priceline. BKNG stock is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol "BKNG." The company has a market capitalization of approximately $110 billion and is considered a blue-chip stock. BKNG stock has been on a tear in recent years, with its share price more than doubling since the start of 2020. The company's strong performance is due to a number of factors, including the growth of the online travel market and the company's acquisition of a number of other travel companies. Despite its strong performance, BKNG stock is not without its risks. The company faces competition from a number of other online travel agencies, and its business could be hurt by a number of factors, including economic downturns, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks. Overall, BKNG stock is a solid investment for investors who are looking for a long-term holding. The company has a strong track record of growth, and its business is expected to continue to grow in the years to come. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with the stock before investing. Here are some additional details about BKNG stock: * The company's fiscal year ends on December 31. * The company's dividend yield is currently 1.3%. * The company's earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 was $27.28. * The company's revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021 was $29.5 billion. For more information about Booking Holdings Inc., please visit the company's website at https://www.bookingholdings.com/.
Graph 31

Key Points

  1. Transductive Learning (ML) for BKNG stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  4. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  5. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

BKNG Stock Price Forecast

We consider Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BKNG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BKNG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BKNG stock holders

a:Best response for BKNG target price


Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

BKNG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transductive Learning (ML) based BKNG Stock Prediction Model

  1. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  2. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
  3. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  4. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global travel company that provides online travel and related services. The company's financial outlook is positive, with analysts expecting revenue to grow by 13.2% in 2023 and earnings per share to increase by 15.7%. The company's strong growth is being driven by the increasing popularity of online travel, as well as the company's expansion into new markets. Here are some of the key factors that are driving Booking Holdings' financial outlook: * **The growing popularity of online travel:** The global online travel market is expected to grow from $800 billion in 2022 to $1.2 trillion in 2027. This growth is being driven by the increasing use of mobile devices for travel planning, as well as the growing popularity of social media and travel review sites. * **Booking Holdings' expansion into new markets:** The company has been expanding its operations into new markets in recent years, including China, India, and Southeast Asia. This expansion is helping the company to reach new customers and grow its revenue. * **The company's strong brand awareness:** Booking Holdings has a strong brand awareness among consumers, which gives it a competitive advantage over its rivals. The company's brand awareness is being further strengthened by its marketing campaigns and partnerships with major airlines and hotels. Overall, Booking Holdings' financial outlook is positive. The company is well-positioned to continue its growth in the years to come.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCBa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  2. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  3. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  5. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  6. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  7. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock (BKNG) is the stock of Booking Holdings Inc., a multinational online travel company headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. The company was founded in 1996 as Booking.com and went public in 2011. Booking Holdings Inc. is one of the largest online travel companies in the world, with a market capitalization of over \$100 billion. The company offers a wide range of travel products and services, including hotel reservations, airline tickets, car rentals, and vacation packages. **What is the price of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** The current price of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock is \$2,033.15. The stock has been trading between \$1,700 and \$2,300 per share over the past year. **What is the dividend yield of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** Booking Holdings Inc. does not pay a dividend. **What is the earnings per share of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** Booking Holdings Inc.'s earnings per share for the fiscal year 2022 was \$237.41. **What is the forward P/E ratio of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock is 24.2. **What is the market capitalization of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** The market capitalization of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock is \$107.2 billion. **What is the daily trading volume of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** The average daily trading volume of Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock is 2.5 million shares. **What are the risks of investing in Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** There are a number of risks associated with investing in Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock, including: * **Competition:** Booking Holdings Inc. faces competition from a number of other online travel companies, including Expedia Group, Airbnb, and TripAdvisor. * **Regulation:** The travel industry is heavily regulated, and Booking Holdings Inc. could be subject to new regulations that could impact its business. * **Economic downturn:** A recession or other economic downturn could negatively impact Booking Holdings Inc.'s business. * **Foreign exchange risk:** Booking Holdings Inc. generates a significant portion of its revenue in foreign currencies, and changes in the exchange rate could impact its financial results. **What are the benefits of investing in Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** Booking Holdings Inc. has a number of attractive qualities that make it a potential investment, including: * **Strong growth:** Booking Holdings Inc. has been growing rapidly in recent years, and is expected to continue to grow in the future. * **Leading market position:** Booking Holdings Inc. is the leading online travel company in the world, and has a strong brand name. * **Diversified business:** Booking Holdings Inc. offers a wide range of travel products and services, which helps to reduce its risk. * **Strong financials:** Booking Holdings Inc. has a strong balance sheet and generates significant cash flow. **Should I buy Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock?** Whether or not you should buy Booking Holdings Inc. Common Stock depends on your individual investment goals and risk tolerance. Before making any investment decision, you should carefully consider your own financial situation and do your own research.

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