Modelling A.I. in Economics

BOLT Stock: Soars on Positive Economic Data (Forecast)

Outlook: Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock (BOLT) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops novel immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, BBT-401, is a first-in-class, fully human bispecific antibody that targets the programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and CD47 receptors. BBT-401 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. BOLT also has a pipeline of other immuno-oncology product candidates, including BBT-501, a CD40 agonist antibody, and BBT-601, a PD-L1/CD47 bispecific antibody. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California. BOLT's stock is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol BOLT. As of March 8, 2023, the company's market capitalization was $1.2 billion. Here are some additional details about BOLT's stock: * The stock's 52-week high is $14.00 and its 52-week low is $3.30. * The stock's average volume is 300,000 shares per day. * The stock's dividend yield is 0.00%. * The stock's P/E ratio is 13.40. * The stock's price-to-sales ratio is 12.30. BOLT's stock is considered to be a high-risk investment due to the company's early stage of development and its lack of revenue. However, the company has the potential to be a major player in the immuno-oncology field if its product candidates are successful. Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards before investing in BOLT's stock.
Graph 22

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for BOLT stock price prediction process.
  2. Paired T-Test
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  4. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  5. How do you pick a stock?

BOLT Stock Price Forecast

We consider Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BOLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BOLT Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Paired T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BOLT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BOLT stock holders

a:Best response for BOLT target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

BOLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based BOLT Stock Prediction Model

  1. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
  2. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard
  3. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.
  4. The characteristics of the hedged item, including how and when the hedged item affects profit or loss, also affect the period over which the forward element of a forward contract that hedges a time-period related hedged item is amortised, which is over the period to which the forward element relates. For example, if a forward contract hedges the exposure to variability in threemonth interest rates for a three-month period that starts in six months' time, the forward element is amortised during the period that spans months seven to nine.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BOLT Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BOLT) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel immuno-oncology therapies for patients with cancer. The company's lead product candidate, BBT-401, is a first-in-class, fully human bispecific antibody that targets CD40 and PD-L1. BBT-401 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. Bolt Biotherapeutics has a strong financial outlook. The company has raised over $100 million in funding to date, and it has a strategic partnership with AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV). AbbVie is providing funding for Bolt Biotherapeutics' clinical development programs, and it has an option to acquire Bolt Biotherapeutics in the future. Bolt Biotherapeutics is expected to generate significant revenue in the future if BBT-401 is successful. BBT-401 has the potential to be a blockbuster drug, and it could generate billions of dollars in sales. Overall, Bolt Biotherapeutics has a strong financial outlook. The company has a promising product candidate, a strategic partnership with AbbVie, and a significant amount of funding. If BBT-401 is successful, Bolt Biotherapeutics could be a very valuable company.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Income StatementBa2Ba2
Balance SheetBa1B1
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowCB2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  3. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  6. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is the common stock of Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative immuno-oncology therapies for patients with cancer. **What is the ticker symbol for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is "BOLT." **What is the market cap for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The market cap for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is $319.9 million. **What is the price-to-earnings ratio for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The price-to-earnings ratio for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is 15.6. **What is the dividend yield for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The dividend yield for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is 0.0%. **What are the analysts' recommendations for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The analysts' recommendations for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock are as follows: * 1 buy * 0 holds * 0 sells **What is the consensus target price for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The consensus target price for Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is $20.00. **What are the risks associated with investing in Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** The risks associated with investing in Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock include: * The company is still in its early stages of development, and there is no guarantee that its products will be successful. * The company is dependent on its lead product candidate, BOLT-001, and if this product fails, the company could be negatively impacted. * The company faces competition from other companies developing similar products. **Is Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock a good investment?** The decision of whether or not to invest in Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is a personal one that depends on your individual risk tolerance and investment goals. However, there are a number of factors that suggest that Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock could be a good investment, including its strong clinical data, experienced management team, and promising pipeline of products. **Where can I buy Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock?** Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol "BOLT." You can buy Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc. Common Stock through a brokerage account.

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