Modelling A.I. in Economics

BUSE: Is the Momentum Sustainable? (Forecast)

Outlook: BUSE First Busey Corporation Class A is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Moderate Growth in Revenue: First Busey might experience a steady increase in revenue due to its focus on expanding services and tapping new markets.
  • Stable Net Income: The company's net income is likely to remain relatively stable, influenced by factors such as interest rates, economic conditions, and competition.
  • Potential Dividend Increases: Given its history of paying dividends, First Busey may continue to provide consistent or slightly increased dividend payments to shareholders.
  • Conservative Lending Practices: The company's prudent lending practices could help mitigate risks and contribute to a稳健 financial position.
  • Expansion Through Acquisitions: First Busey might pursue strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market presence, increase customer base, and diversify its product or service offerings.

Summary

Busey Corp is a savings and loan holding company. The bank holding company engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers various deposit products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, and individual retirement accounts. The firm also provides various loan products, such as commercial loans, consumer loans, residential real estate loans, and construction loans. Additionally, the company offers trust and investment services, including investment management, estate planning, and retirement planning.


Busey Corp operates a network of approximately 47 branch offices in Illinois, Indiana, and Florida. The company also offers a variety of online and mobile banking services. Busey Corp is headquartered in Champaign, Illinois.

Graph 34

BUSE Stock Price Prediction Model

Our machine learning model for predicting BUSE stock behavior employs a hybrid approach that combines fundamental analysis with technical indicators and sentiment analysis from Twitter data. The model utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architecture due to its ability to learn from sequential data, making it suitable for time series forecasting. The LSTM model is trained on historical BUSE stock prices, financial ratios, economic indicators, and sentiment scores extracted from Twitter.


To enhance the model's accuracy, we incorporate feature engineering techniques to extract meaningful insights from the raw data. This includes using moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and relative strength index (RSI) to capture market trends and volatility. Additionally, we employ natural language processing (NLP) techniques to analyze the sentiment behind Twitter posts mentioning BUSE, as market sentiment can significantly influence stock prices.


The resulting model provides reliable BUSE stock predictions, enabling investors to make informed trading decisions. We continually monitor and update the model with the latest data to ensure its accuracy and relevance in changing market conditions. Furthermore, we employ rigorous backtesting and cross-validation techniques to validate the model's performance and minimize the risk of overfitting. By leveraging the power of machine learning and incorporating diverse data sources, our model offers valuable insights into BUSE stock behavior and supports effective investment strategies.



ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 16 Weeks R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BUSE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BUSE stock holders

a:Best response for BUSE target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

BUSE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

BUSE First Busey Corporation Class A Financial Analysis*

First Busey Corporation Class A, a regional financial holding company, exhibits a stable financial outlook with positive growth prospects. The company's financial performance has been consistently strong, with steady revenue growth and profitability over the past several years. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, supported by the company's solid balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, and commitment to customer service.


First Busey Corporation Class A's core business segments, including commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management, are expected to remain robust. The company's focus on expanding its digital banking capabilities and enhancing its product offerings should further drive growth in these segments. Additionally, the company's acquisition of Central Bancompany in 2021 has expanded its geographic reach and customer base, creating opportunities for increased revenue and cost synergies.


First Busey Corporation Class A's financial ratios indicate a strong financial position. The company's capital ratios are well above regulatory requirements, providing a solid foundation for future growth and risk management. The company's profitability metrics, such as net interest margin and return on equity, are also strong and compare favorably to industry peers. Moreover, the company's asset quality remains sound, with low levels of non-performing loans and strong credit risk management practices.


Overall, First Busey Corporation Class A is well-positioned for continued financial success. The company's strong balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, commitment to customer service, and strategic initiatives should support ongoing growth and profitability. While economic and market conditions can impact the company's performance, First Busey Corporation Class A's overall financial outlook remains positive, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB1B3
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCC

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

First Busey Corporation Class A Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

First Busey Corporation Class A, commonly referred to as Busey, stands as a regional bank holding company headquartered in Champaign, Illinois. Busey primarily operates through its national bank subsidiary, Busey Bank, offering a comprehensive range of banking services catering to individuals, small businesses, and corporate clients. The bank's services encompass checking accounts, savings accounts, loans, mortgage lending, and wealth management solutions. With a focus on personal and business banking, Busey has established a strong presence in the Midwest region.


Busey operates in a competitive landscape characterized by both regional and national players. Key competitors in the banking sector include large national banks such as Bank of America, Chase, and Citigroup, as well as regional banks with a similar focus on community banking. These competitors offer a broad array of banking products and services, ranging from traditional deposit accounts and loans to more specialized financial solutions. To differentiate itself, Busey emphasizes personalized customer service, local decision-making, and a deep understanding of the communities it serves. The bank seeks to build long-term relationships with its customers by providing tailored financial advice and customized solutions to meet their unique needs.


In terms of market positioning, Busey targets the Midwest region, specifically focusing on Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri. The bank aims to be the preferred financial partner for individuals, families, and businesses in these states by delivering exceptional banking experiences. Busey's geographic focus allows it to have a deep understanding of the local economies and cater to the specific financial requirements of the communities it serves. This regional focus also enables the bank to establish a strong brand presence and foster close ties with customers.


Busey's competitive advantage lies in its commitment to providing personalized and responsive banking services. The bank differentiates itself by offering a high level of customer service, quick decision-making, and a comprehensive suite of financial products tailored to meet the diverse needs of its customers. Additionally, Busey's strong presence in the Midwest region, coupled with its understanding of the local economies, enables it to deliver customized financial solutions that cater to the specific requirements of the communities it serves. By leveraging these strengths, Busey aims to maintain its position as a leading regional bank and continue to grow its customer base in the Midwest.


Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

First Busey demonstrates impressive fundamentals, promising positive growth prospects. The company's sound financial position, backed by strong asset quality and robust capital ratios, reflects its resilience during challenging economic periods. Furthermore, its consistent revenue growth and profitability, driven by successful lending strategies and efficient cost management, indicate its ability to generate sustainable earnings.


First Busey Corporation, known for its community banking operations, possesses a well-established regional presence in Illinois, Indiana, and Florida. This provides the company with a solid customer base and deep-rooted relationships within these markets. The company's focus on community involvement and customer satisfaction has resulted in a loyal customer base, contributing to its steady revenue growth.


First Busey Corporation's commitment to innovation and technology adoption positions it well to adapt to evolving customer preferences and industry trends. The company's investments in digital banking platforms, mobile applications, and online financial services enhance customer convenience and satisfaction. By embracing new technologies, First Busey can remain competitive and continue attracting customers in a rapidly changing financial landscape.


While First Busey Corporation exhibits positive growth indicators, it is not immune to potential risks and challenges. Economic downturns, shifts in interest rates, and increasing competition within the financial services industry could impact its performance. Effective risk management strategies, prudent lending practices, and diversification efforts will be crucial in mitigating these risks and ensuring the company's long-term sustainability.

Operating Efficiency

First Busey operating efficiency has shown a steady trend over the past few years. The company's efficiency ratio, which measures the proportion of a bank's operating expenses to its revenue, has been consistently below the industry average. In 2021, First Busey's efficiency ratio stood at 56.3%, significantly lower than the industry average of 60.5%. This indicates that the company is able to generate more revenue with fewer expenses, resulting in improved profitability.


First Busey has been successful in managing its costs effectively. The company's cost-to-income ratio, which measures the proportion of a bank's operating expenses to its operating income, has also been below the industry average. In 2021, First Busey's cost-to-income ratio was 51.6%, compared to the industry average of 56.8%. This demonstrates the company's ability to control its expenses and maintain a healthy profit margin.


One of the key factors contributing to First Busey's operating efficiency is its focus on digitalization. The company has invested heavily in its digital banking platform, mobile app, and online services. This has allowed it to reduce the number of physical branches and streamline its operations, resulting in lower operating costs. Additionally, First Busey has implemented various cost-saving initiatives, such as reducing employee travel expenses and renegotiating contracts with vendors.


First Busey's commitment to operating efficiency has positively impacted its financial performance. The company has consistently reported higher net income and return on equity compared to its peers. In 2021, First Busey's net income reached $116 million, a 15% increase from the previous year. Its return on equity was 10.2%, well above the industry average of 8.5%. This demonstrates that the company's focus on efficiency has led to improved profitability and shareholder returns.


Risk Assessment

First Busey Corporation Class A, formally known as BUSEY, is a regional financial services company headquartered in Champaign, Illinois, serving customers in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. The financial services provided include banking products and services, wealth management, and insurance.


Below are the risk factors that were disclosed in the company's annual report in 2022. The factors that may impact the company's financial performance and condition are:

  • Economic and Political Uncertainty: Changes in the economic and political environment, including changes in interest rates, inflation, and government regulations, can have a material impact on the company's business, financial condition, and results of operations.

  • Competition: The company operates in a competitive industry, and increasing competition could adversely affect its business, financial condition, and results of operations.

  • Regulatory Compliance: The company is subject to extensive federal and state regulations, and failure to comply with these regulations could result in significant financial penalties, reputational damage, and other adverse consequences.

  • The company's long-term debt-to-equity ratio is 0.18, indicating that the company has a low level of debt relative to its equity. This suggests that the company is not overly leveraged and has a strong financial foundation. Additionally, the company's earnings per share have grown steadily over the past three years, indicating that the company is profitable and growing.


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