Modelling A.I. in Economics

CBH Stock: A Sinking Ship?

Outlook: Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CBH stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 50

Key Points

  1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for CBH stock price prediction process.
  2. ElasticNet Regression
  3. What is neural prediction?
  4. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  5. What is the use of Markov decision process?

CBH Stock Price Forecast

We consider Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CBH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CBH Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(ElasticNet Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CBH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CBH stock holders

a:Best response for CBH target price


Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CBH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based CBH Stock Prediction Model

  1. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  2. When an entity first applies this Standard, it may choose as its accounting policy to continue to apply the hedge accounting requirements of IAS 39 instead of the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard. An entity shall apply that policy to all of its hedging relationships. An entity that chooses that policy shall also apply IFRIC 16 Hedges of a Net Investment in a Foreign Operation without the amendments that conform that Interpretation to the requirements in Chapter 6 of this Standard.
  3. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  4. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CBH Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Income StatementB2Baa2
Balance SheetCB2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  2. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  4. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  5. Bierens HJ. 1987. Kernel estimators of regression functions. In Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Vol. 1, ed. TF Bewley, pp. 99–144. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  7. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CBH stock expected to rise?
A: CBH stock prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for CBH stock is Hold
Q: Is CBH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CBH Stock.
Q: Is Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Virtus Convertible & Income 2024 Target Term Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CBH stock?
A: The consensus rating for CBH is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for CBH stock?
A: CBH target price forecast: Hold

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