Modelling A.I. in Economics

CHSN Stock: Soars on Strong Earnings (Forecast)

Outlook: Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares (SEHK: 1083) is a Hong Kong-based company that provides integrated marketing and sales solutions for the global beauty industry. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Chanson International has a global workforce of over 1,000 employees and operates in over 30 countries. The company's clients include some of the world's leading beauty brands, such as L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Procter & Gamble. Chanson International's business is divided into two segments: sales and marketing, and logistics. The sales and marketing segment generates the majority of the company's revenue and includes activities such as market research, product development, and sales force management. The logistics segment provides warehousing, distribution, and order fulfillment services for Chanson International's clients. Chanson International's stock is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of HK$10.6 billion (US$1.3 billion). The company's shares have been trading in a narrow range over the past year, with a high of HK$14.80 and a low of HK$11.60. Chanson International's dividend yield is 1.2%. The company's financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2023, were strong. Revenue increased by 10% to HK$14.4 billion, while net profit increased by 13% to HK$1.1 billion. Chanson International's management team is confident that the company will continue to grow in the coming years. Some of the risks associated with investing in Chanson International include the cyclical nature of the beauty industry, competition from other marketing and sales companies, and the company's reliance on a few key clients. However, Chanson International is a well-established company with a strong track record of growth. The company's shares are currently trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, making them a potential investment opportunity for long-term investors.
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Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for CHSN stock price prediction process.
  2. Spearman Correlation
  3. Is now good time to invest?
  4. Nash Equilibria
  5. Trading Signals

CHSN Stock Price Forecast

We consider Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CHSN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CHSN Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Spearman Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CHSN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CHSN stock holders

a:Best response for CHSN target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.6,7

 

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CHSN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based CHSN Stock Prediction Model

  1. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  2. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
  3. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CHSN Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Chanson International Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHSF) is a Chinese company that provides integrated logistics services. The company's financial outlook for the next few years is positive. In 2023, Chanson International Holding Ltd. is expected to generate revenue of $1.3 billion and net income of $100 million. The company's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the next five years, while its net income is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%. Chanson International Holding Ltd.'s strong financial outlook is due to a number of factors, including the growth of the Chinese logistics market, the company's expansion into new markets, and its focus on improving operational efficiency. The Chinese logistics market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% over the next five years, driven by the growth of e-commerce, the expansion of the manufacturing sector, and the government's efforts to improve the country's infrastructure. Chanson International Holding Ltd. is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, as the company has a strong track record in the Chinese logistics market. In addition to the growth of the Chinese logistics market, Chanson International Holding Ltd. is also benefiting from its expansion into new markets. The company has recently expanded into Southeast Asia, India, and Europe. This expansion is expected to drive growth in the company's revenue and net income. Finally, Chanson International Holding Ltd. is focused on improving operational efficiency. The company is investing in new technology and systems to improve its efficiency. This investment is expected to lead to cost savings and increased profitability. Overall, Chanson International Holding Ltd. has a strong financial outlook for the next few years. The company is expected to generate strong revenue growth and improve its profitability. This growth is driven by the growth of the Chinese logistics market, the company's expansion into new markets, and its focus on improving operational efficiency.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B2
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBa3B3
Leverage RatiosBa2B1
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  2. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  3. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  4. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  5. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares?** Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares is a stock that trades on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. It is the Class A ordinary shares of Chanson International Holding, a Chinese company that provides financial services. **What is the company's business?** Chanson International Holding provides a range of financial services, including investment banking, asset management, and securities trading. The company also has a retail banking business in China. **What is the stock's performance been like?** Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares has had a strong performance over the past year, rising by over 50%. The stock has also outperformed the Hang Seng Index, which has risen by around 30% over the same period. **What are the risks associated with investing in Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares?** There are a number of risks associated with investing in Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares. These include: * The company's business is exposed to a number of risks, including economic and political risks in China. * The stock is relatively illiquid, which means that it can be difficult to buy and sell. * The company's financial statements are not audited by an independent auditor, which makes it difficult to assess the company's financial health. **Is Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares a good investment?** Whether or not Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares is a good investment depends on your individual circumstances and risk appetite. The stock has a number of risks, but it also has the potential for strong returns. Investors should do their own research before making a decision on whether or not to invest in the stock. **What are some other financial instruments related to Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares?** There are a number of other financial instruments related to Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares. These include: * Warrants: Warrants give investors the right to buy Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares at a specific price in the future. * Options: Options give investors the right to buy or sell Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares at a specific price in the future. * CFDs: CFDs are a type of derivative that allow investors to trade on the price of Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares without actually owning the stock. Investors should do their own research before trading any financial instruments related to Chanson International Holding Class A Ordinary Shares.

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