Modelling A.I. in Economics

CI Stock: Is This the End of the Bull Market? (Forecast)

Outlook: The Cigna Group Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : SellBuy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

The Cigna Group Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CI stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy

Graph 9

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) for CI stock price prediction process.
  2. ElasticNet Regression
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  4. Trading Signals
  5. How can neural networks improve predictions?

CI Stock Price Forecast

We consider The Cigna Group Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CI The Cigna Group Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy


F(ElasticNet Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CI stock holders

a:Best response for CI target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.5 Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) based CI Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a component of the cash flows of a financial or a non-financial item is designated as the hedged item, that component must be less than or equal to the total cash flows of the entire item. However, all of the cash flows of the entire item may be designated as the hedged item and hedged for only one particular risk (for example, only for those changes that are attributable to changes in LIBOR or a benchmark commodity price).
  2. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.
  3. When assessing a modified time value of money element, an entity must consider factors that could affect future contractual cash flows. For example, if an entity is assessing a bond with a five-year term and the variable interest rate is reset every six months to a five-year rate, the entity cannot conclude that the contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding simply because the interest rate curve at the time of the assessment is such that the difference between a five-year interest rate and a six-month interest rate is not significant. Instead, the entity must also consider whether the relationship between the five-year interest rate and the six-month interest rate could change over the life of the instrument such that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows over the life of the instrument could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows. However, an entity must consider only reasonably possible scenarios instead of every possible scenario. If an entity concludes that the contractual (undiscounted) cash flows could be significantly different from the (undiscounted) benchmark cash flows, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and therefore cannot be measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
  4. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CI The Cigna Group Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCB2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B1
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  3. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  7. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CI stock expected to rise?
A: CI stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for CI stock is SellBuy
Q: Is CI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy CI Stock.
Q: Is The Cigna Group Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for The Cigna Group Common Stock is SellBuy and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CI stock?
A: The consensus rating for CI is SellBuy.
Q: What is the forecast for CI stock?
A: CI target price forecast: SellBuy

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