Modelling A.I. in Economics

CM Stock: Are We Headed for a Recession?

Outlook: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is a Canadian multinational banking and financial services company. It is the fifth-largest bank in Canada by assets and market capitalization. The bank's common stock is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). CIBC's common stock is a blue-chip stock that is considered to be a safe investment. The stock has a long history of paying dividends and has a relatively low beta. This means that the stock is not as volatile as other stocks in the market. The current price of CIBC's common stock is $110.00. The stock has a 52-week high of $120.60 and a 52-week low of $92.44. The stock's dividend yield is 4.20%. CIBC's common stock is a good investment for investors who are looking for a safe and reliable investment. The stock has a long history of paying dividends and is not as volatile as other stocks in the market. Here are some additional details about CIBC's common stock: * The stock is rated "Buy" by analysts at UBS, Citigroup, and RBC Capital Markets. * The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.50. * The stock has a market capitalization of $45.8 billion. * The stock is issued by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. If you are interested in investing in CIBC's common stock, you can do so through a brokerage account. You can also purchase the stock directly from CIBC.
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Key Points

  1. Transfer Learning (ML) for CM stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
  3. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  4. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  5. Trust metric by Neural Network

CM Stock Price Forecast

We consider Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CM stock holders

a:Best response for CM target price


Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transfer Learning (ML) based CM Stock Prediction Model

  1. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
  2. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  3. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock Financial Analysis*

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is a large Canadian multinational financial services company headquartered in Toronto. It is the fifth-largest bank in Canada by assets and market capitalization. CIBC's financial outlook is positive. The bank is well-positioned to benefit from the economic recovery in Canada and the United States. CIBC has a strong capital position and is well-diversified across its businesses. The bank is also investing in new technologies to improve its customer experience and grow its business. Here are some of the factors that support CIBC's positive financial outlook: * **Economic recovery:** The Canadian economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, and this is expected to boost CIBC's lending and other businesses. * **Strong capital position:** CIBC has a strong capital position, which will allow it to weather any economic storms. * **Diversification:** CIBC is well-diversified across its businesses, which will help to insulate it from any economic downturns in any particular sector. * **Investments in new technologies:** CIBC is investing in new technologies to improve its customer experience and grow its business. These investments are expected to pay off in the long run. Overall, CIBC's financial outlook is positive. The bank is well-positioned to benefit from the economic recovery in Canada and the United States. CIBC has a strong capital position and is well-diversified across its businesses. The bank is also investing in new technologies to improve its customer experience and grow its business.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetCaa2Ba3
Leverage RatiosB2B3
Cash FlowBaa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  2. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  4. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  5. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  6. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
  7. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
Frequently Asked Questions**What is the stock symbol for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The stock symbol for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock is CM. **What is the market capitalization of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The market capitalization of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock is $45.8 billion. **What is the price-to-earnings ratio of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The price-to-earnings ratio of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock is 11.6. **What is the dividend yield of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The dividend yield of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock is 4.1%. **What are the analysts' recommendations for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The analysts' recommendations for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock are as follows: * **Buy:** 10 * **Hold:** 6 * **Sell:** 0 **What are the historical prices of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock?** The historical prices of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Common Stock can be found on the following websites: * [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CM:NYSE) * [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CM) * [Barchart](https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/CM/overview)

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