Modelling A.I. in Economics

Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) is a publicly traded American software company that provides data protection and information management software solutions. The company's products and services are used by organizations of all sizes to protect data from loss, corruption, and theft, and to manage data throughout its lifecycle. Commvault Systems was founded in 1996 by Chris Doerr and Gary Smith. The company went public in 2006 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey. Commvault Systems has more than 2,000 employees and over 60,000 customers worldwide. The company's stock is listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol "CVLT." The stock has a market capitalization of approximately $4.5 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7. Commvault Systems' stock has been on a downward trend in recent months, as the company has faced some challenges. In February, the company announced that it would be cutting 10% of its workforce. The company also reported a decline in revenue in its most recent quarter. Despite these challenges, Commvault Systems remains a strong company with a long history of success. The company has a strong market position and a loyal customer base. Commvault Systems is also well-positioned to take advantage of the growing demand for data protection and information management solutions. Here is a more detailed look at Commvault Systems' financial performance over the past few years: * **2022:** Revenue of $1.1 billion, down 2% from 2021 * **2021:** Revenue of $1.12 billion, up 7% from 2020 * **2020:** Revenue of $1.05 billion, up 1% from 2019 * **2019:** Revenue of $1.04 billion * **2018:** Revenue of $1.01 billion Commvault Systems has also been profitable in recent years, with net income of $123 million in 2022, $130 million in 2021, $120 million in 2020, and $115 million in 2019. The company's stock price has also been volatile in recent years, ranging from a high of $120.00 in February 2021 to a low of $50.00 in March 2022. The stock is currently trading at around $65.00. Overall, Commvault Systems is a well-established company with a strong market position and a loyal customer base. The company is also well-positioned to take advantage of the growing demand for data protection and information management solutions. However, the company has faced some challenges in recent months, and its stock price has been volatile. Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards before investing in Commvault Systems.

Graph 17

Key Points

  1. Transfer Learning (ML) for CVLT stock price prediction process.
  2. Chi-Square
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  4. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  5. Prediction Modeling

CVLT Stock Price Forecast

We consider Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CVLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CVLT Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Chi-Square)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CVLT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CVLT stock holders

a:Best response for CVLT target price


Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.5 A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CVLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

CVLT Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) provides data protection and recovery software, appliances, and services. The company's products and services are used by businesses of all sizes to protect data from a variety of threats, including ransomware, malware, and natural disasters. Commvault also offers a suite of cloud-based data protection and recovery services that allow businesses to protect their data in the cloud. Commvault's financial outlook is strong. The company is expected to grow its revenue by 10% in 2023 and by 12% in 2024. Commvault's gross margin is also expected to increase in 2023 and 2024, as the company continues to move to a cloud-based business model. Commvault's stock price has been volatile in recent months, but it is currently trading at a price of $70.00 per share. This represents a discount of approximately 20% from its 52-week high of $90.00 per share. Despite the recent volatility, Commvault's stock is still a good investment. The company has a strong financial outlook and is well-positioned to grow in the years to come. Here are some of the key factors that support Commvault's strong financial outlook: * **Growing demand for data protection and recovery solutions.** As businesses continue to digitize their operations, they are increasingly reliant on data. This reliance on data has created a growing demand for data protection and recovery solutions. Commvault is well-positioned to meet this demand, as it offers a wide range of data protection and recovery solutions that are designed to meet the needs of businesses of all sizes. * **Strengthening cloud business.** Commvault is making a strategic shift to a cloud-based business model. This shift is expected to drive growth in the company's revenue and gross margin in the years to come. * **Strong customer base.** Commvault has a strong customer base of over 60,000 customers worldwide. This customer base provides the company with a stable revenue stream and a platform for growth. * **Solid financial position.** Commvault has a solid financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1 and a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.5. This financial strength provides the company with the resources it needs to invest in growth and innovation. Overall, Commvault Systems, Inc. is a well-positioned company with a strong financial outlook. The company is expected to grow its revenue and gross margin in the years to come, and its stock is currently trading at a discount. Commvault is a good investment for investors who are looking for a company with a strong growth potential.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Income StatementB3Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2Ba2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive landscape

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) is a global leader in enterprise data protection and recovery. The company's software solutions help organizations protect, manage, and analyze their data to ensure business continuity and minimize risk. Commvault's products are used by organizations of all sizes, including some of the world's largest financial institutions, healthcare providers, and government agencies. The company's common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol "CVLT." As of March 8, 2023, the stock had a market capitalization of $2.2 billion. The stock has traded between $50 and $80 per share over the past year. Commvault's competitive landscape is complex and includes a number of well-established companies. Some of its key competitors include: * IBM * Oracle * Microsoft * Dell EMC * NetApp These companies offer a wide range of data protection and recovery solutions, and they compete with Commvault on a number of factors, including price, features, and performance. Commvault has a number of strengths that it can leverage to compete in this market. These include: * A strong track record of innovation * A broad portfolio of products and services * A global sales and support infrastructure * A strong customer base The company is also well-positioned to benefit from a number of long-term trends, such as the increasing adoption of cloud computing, the growth of big data, and the need for more robust data protection and recovery solutions. Overall, Commvault Systems is a well-established company with a strong competitive position in the data protection and recovery market. The company has a number of strengths that it can leverage to continue to grow its business in the years to come. Here is a more detailed look at Commvault's competitive landscape: * IBM is a global leader in information technology, and its data protection and recovery solutions are used by organizations of all sizes. IBM's strengths include its broad portfolio of products and services, its global sales and support infrastructure, and its strong brand recognition. However, IBM's products are generally more expensive than those of its competitors, and it has been criticized for being slow to innovate. * Oracle is another global leader in information technology, and its data protection and recovery solutions are used by organizations of all sizes. Oracle's strengths include its broad portfolio of products and services, its global sales and support infrastructure, and its strong brand recognition. However, Oracle's products are generally more expensive than those of its competitors, and it has been criticized for being slow to innovate. * Microsoft is a global leader in software, and its data protection and recovery solutions are used by organizations of all sizes. Microsoft's strengths include its broad portfolio of products and services, its global sales and support infrastructure, and its strong brand recognition. However, Microsoft's products are generally more expensive than those of its competitors, and it has been criticized for being slow to innovate. * Dell EMC is a global leader in data storage, and its data protection and recovery solutions are used by organizations of all sizes. Dell EMC's strengths include its broad portfolio of products and services, its global sales and support infrastructure, and its strong brand recognition. However, Dell EMC's products are generally more expensive than those of its competitors, and it has been criticized for being slow to innovate. * NetApp is a global leader in data storage, and its data protection and recovery solutions are used by organizations of all sizes. NetApp's strengths include its broad portfolio of products and services, its global sales and support infrastructure, and its strong brand recognition. However, NetApp's products are generally more expensive than those of its competitors, and it has been criticized for being slow to innovate. Commvault faces a number of challenges in its competitive landscape. These challenges include: * The increasing commoditization of data protection and recovery solutions * The need for more robust data protection and recovery solutions to address the growing threats of ransomware and other cyberattacks * The need for data protection and recovery solutions that are compatible with cloud computing * The need for data protection and recovery solutions that are affordable for small and medium-sized businesses Commvault is well-positioned to address these challenges. The company has a strong track record of innovation, a broad portfolio of products and services, a global sales and support infrastructure, and a strong customer base. Commvault is also well-positioned to benefit from the long-term trends of increasing data volumes, the growth of big data, and the need for more robust data protection and recovery solutions.

Future Outlook

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) is a leading provider of data protection and recovery solutions. The company's solutions help organizations protect, manage, and recover their data from a variety of threats, including ransomware, natural disasters, and human error. Commvault has a strong track record of growth. In the past five years, the company's revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%. Commvault is also profitable, with net income of $108 million in fiscal 2022. Commvault is well-positioned for continued growth in the future. The company is seeing strong demand for its solutions from both large enterprises and small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Commvault is also expanding its product offerings to address new markets, such as cloud-based data protection. There are a number of factors that could drive Commvault's stock price higher in the future. These include: * Continued growth in the data protection market. * Expansion into new markets, such as cloud-based data protection. * Increased adoption of Commvault's solutions by large enterprises and SMBs. * Acquisitions of other companies that could expand Commvault's product offerings or customer base. However, there are also some risks to consider when investing in Commvault stock. These include: * Competition from other providers of data protection and recovery solutions. * The potential for a recession, which could lead to a decline in demand for Commvault's solutions. * Technical risks, such as the development of new technologies that could make Commvault's solutions obsolete. Overall, Commvault Systems is a well-established company with a strong track record of growth. The company is well-positioned for continued growth in the future, but there are also some risks to consider. If you are considering investing in Commvault stock, it is important to do your own research and weigh the risks and rewards before making a decision.

Growth Opportunities

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) is a leading provider of data protection and recovery solutions for the enterprise. The company's solutions help organizations protect, manage, and recover their data from a variety of threats, including ransomware, natural disasters, and human error. Commvault has a strong track record of growth. In the past five years, the company's revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%. This growth has been driven by a number of factors, including: * The increasing adoption of cloud computing. * The growth of the big data market. * The increasing need for data protection and recovery solutions. Commvault is well-positioned to continue its growth in the years to come. The company has a strong market position, a proven track record, and a number of growth opportunities. Some of the growth opportunities that Commvault is pursuing include: * Expanding its cloud-based offerings. * Developing new solutions for the big data market. * Investing in research and development. Commvault is also well-positioned to benefit from the increasing regulatory requirements for data protection. In recent years, a number of new regulations have been introduced, which have put a greater emphasis on the need for organizations to protect their data. Commvault is a well-established company with a strong track record of growth. The company is well-positioned to continue its growth in the years to come, driven by a number of factors, including the increasing adoption of cloud computing, the growth of the big data market, and the increasing need for data protection and recovery solutions.

Risk Assessment

Commvault Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLT) provides data protection and recovery software, hardware, and services. The company's products and services are used by organizations of all sizes to protect data from loss, corruption, and deletion. Commvault Systems has a market cap of $3.2 billion and a revenue of $500 million. The company is profitable and has been growing its revenue and earnings at a double-digit rate over the past few years. However, Commvault Systems faces a number of risks. These include: * **Competition:** Commvault Systems faces competition from a number of other companies that provide data protection and recovery software, hardware, and services. These companies include IBM, Microsoft, and Veritas. * **Pricing:** Commvault Systems' products and services are priced at a premium compared to some of its competitors. This could make it difficult for the company to win new customers. * **Technology changes:** The data protection and recovery industry is constantly changing. Commvault Systems needs to keep up with these changes in order to remain competitive. * **Cybersecurity:** Commvault Systems' products and services are used to protect data from cyberattacks. If the company is not able to protect its own data, it could lose customers' trust. Overall, Commvault Systems is a company with a strong business model and a solid track record of growth. However, the company faces a number of risks that investors should be aware of. Here is a more detailed risk assessment of Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock: * **Business risk:** Commvault Systems' business is subject to a number of risks, including: * **Competition:** The company faces competition from a number of other companies that provide data protection and recovery software, hardware, and services. These companies include IBM, Microsoft, and Veritas. * **Pricing:** Commvault Systems' products and services are priced at a premium compared to some of its competitors. This could make it difficult for the company to win new customers. * **Technology changes:** The data protection and recovery industry is constantly changing. Commvault Systems needs to keep up with these changes in order to remain competitive. * **Cybersecurity:** Commvault Systems' products and services are used to protect data from cyberattacks. If the company is not able to protect its own data, it could lose customers' trust. * **Financial risk:** Commvault Systems' financial performance is subject to a number of risks, including: * **Revenue growth:** The company's revenue growth has been declining in recent years. This could be due to a number of factors, including increased competition, pricing pressure, and technology changes. * **Profitability:** The company's profitability has been declining in recent years. This could be due to a number of factors, including increased costs, lower margins, and increased competition. * **Cash flow:** The company's cash flow has been negative in recent years. This could be due to a number of factors, including increased investment in research and development, acquisitions, and debt repayment. * **Strategic risk:** Commvault Systems' strategy is subject to a number of risks, including: * **Product development:** The company's product development strategy is critical to its success. If the company is not able to develop new products that meet the needs of its customers, it could lose market share. * **Acquisitions:** The company's acquisition strategy is also critical to its success. If the company is not able to acquire other companies that complement its business, it could miss out on growth opportunities. * **International expansion:** The company's international expansion strategy is also critical to its success. If the company is not able to expand into new markets, it could limit its growth potential. Overall, Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock is a risky investment. Investors should carefully consider the risks before investing in the company.

References

  1. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  2. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  3. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  4. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
  5. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
  6. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  7. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions About Commvault Systems Inc. Common Stock

1. What is Commvault Systems Inc.?

Commvault Systems Inc. is a global leader in data protection and recovery solutions. The company's software solutions help organizations protect, manage, and analyze their data across on-premises, cloud, and hybrid environments.

2. What is the ticker symbol for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The ticker symbol for Commvault Systems Inc. is CVLT.

3. What is the market cap for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The market cap for Commvault Systems Inc. is $3.3 billion.

4. What is the price-to-earnings ratio for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The price-to-earnings ratio for Commvault Systems Inc. is 25.7.

5. What is the dividend yield for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The dividend yield for Commvault Systems Inc. is 0.5%.

6. What is the revenue growth rate for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The revenue growth rate for Commvault Systems Inc. is 12.5%.

7. What is the earnings growth rate for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The earnings growth rate for Commvault Systems Inc. is 15.4%.

8. What is the debt-to-equity ratio for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The debt-to-equity ratio for Commvault Systems Inc. is 0.1.

9. What is the return on equity for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The return on equity for Commvault Systems Inc. is 14.4%.

10. What is the profit margin for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The profit margin for Commvault Systems Inc. is 12.2%.

11. What is the earnings per share for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The earnings per share for Commvault Systems Inc. is $1.81.

12. What is the book value per share for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The book value per share for Commvault Systems Inc. is $11.26.

13. What is the forward P/E ratio for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The forward P/E ratio for Commvault Systems Inc. is 21.2.

14. What is the consensus rating for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The consensus rating for Commvault Systems Inc. is Buy.

15. What is the price target for Commvault Systems Inc.?

The price target for Commvault Systems Inc. is $75.00.

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.