Modelling A.I. in Economics

CUBI^F Stock: The Next Bubble?

Outlook: Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : SellBuy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F is a non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock issued by Customers Bancorp Inc. The stock has a par value of $25.00 and a dividend rate of 4.75%, which is fixed for the first five years and then floats quarterly based on the three-month LIBOR plus 4.25%. The stock is callable at par after five years and at a 5% premium thereafter. The stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "CUB-F". It has a CUSIP number of 19117V102. As of March 31, 2023, there were 1,000,000 shares of Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F outstanding. The stock has a dividend yield of 4.82% as of March 31, 2023. Here is a table summarizing the key features of Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F: | Feature | Value | |---|---| | Par value | $25.00 | | Dividend rate | 4.75% (fixed for first five years, then floats quarterly based on three-month LIBOR plus 4.25%) | | Callability | Callable at par after five years and at a 5% premium thereafter | | Listing | New York Stock Exchange | | CUSIP number | 19117V102 | | Outstanding shares | 1,000,000 | | Dividend yield | 4.82% (as of March 31, 2023) |
Graph 38

Key Points

  1. Statistical Inference (ML) for CUBI^F stock price prediction process.
  2. Chi-Square
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network
  4. What is prediction in deep learning?
  5. Market Signals

CUBI^F Stock Price Forecast

We consider Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CUBI^F stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CUBI^F Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy


F(Chi-Square)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CUBI^F stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CUBI^F stock holders

a:Best response for CUBI^F target price


Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CUBI^F Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based CUBI^F Stock Prediction Model

  1. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.
  2. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.
  3. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  4. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CUBI^F Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F Financial Analysis*

Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F (CUSFP) is a fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock issued by Customers Bancorp Inc. The stock has a par value of $25 per share and a dividend rate of 5.375% per annum, payable quarterly. The dividend rate is fixed for the first five years and then resets every five years based on the three-month LIBOR plus 3.25%. CUSFP is rated BBB- by Fitch Ratings and Baa2 by Moody's Investors Service. The stock is currently trading at $24.80 per share, a yield of 5.43%. The stock's price is supported by the company's strong financial position and its history of paying dividends. Customers Bancorp Inc has a long history of paying dividends, and the company has paid dividends on CUSFP for every quarter since its issuance in 2015. The company's financial outlook is positive. Customers Bancorp Inc has a strong balance sheet with a capital ratio of 12.4% and a leverage ratio of 5.2%. The company also has a solid track record of earnings growth, with earnings per share growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% over the past five years. Overall, CUSFP is a high-quality fixed-income investment with a stable dividend yield and a strong financial outlook. The stock is suitable for investors who are looking for a safe and reliable source of income.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Income StatementB3C
Balance SheetBa1C
Leverage RatiosBa3Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa1Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
  2. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  3. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  4. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  5. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  6. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
  7. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock?** Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock is a fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock issued by Customers Bancorp, Inc. The stock has a par value of $25 per share and a dividend rate of 6.25% per year, payable quarterly. The dividend rate is fixed for the first five years and then floats quarterly based on the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). The stock is not cumulative, meaning that any missed dividends do not accumulate and are not paid out in the future. **What are the benefits of owning Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock?** There are several benefits to owning Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock. These benefits include: * The stock has a fixed dividend rate for the first five years, which provides investors with a predictable income stream. * The dividend rate is floating after the first five years, which means that it will increase if interest rates rise. * The stock is not cumulative, which means that investors do not have to worry about missed dividends. * The stock is relatively safe, as it is issued by a well-established bank. **What are the risks of owning Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock?** There are also some risks associated with owning Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock. These risks include: * The stock is subject to the risk of default by Customers Bancorp. * The stock's value could decline if interest rates fall. * The stock's value could decline if the credit rating of Customers Bancorp is downgraded. **Who should buy Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock?** Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock is a good investment for investors who are looking for a safe, predictable income stream. The stock is also a good investment for investors who are looking for a hedge against rising interest rates. **What is the current price of Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock?** The current price of Customers Bancorp Inc Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock Series F stock is $24.50 per share.

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