Modelling A.I. in Economics

EAC Stock: The Next Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the EAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 20

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for EAC stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  4. Market Signals
  5. Can machine learning predict?

EAC Stock Price Forecast

We consider Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of EAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EAC Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of EAC stock holders

a:Best response for EAC target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

EAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based EAC Stock Prediction Model

  1. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
  2. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  4. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

EAC Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Income StatementB3C
Balance SheetBa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
  2. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
  3. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  4. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  5. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  7. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is EAC stock expected to rise?
A: EAC stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for EAC stock is Sell
Q: Is EAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EAC Stock.
Q: Is Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Edify Acquisition Corp. Class A Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for EAC is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for EAC stock?
A: EAC target price forecast: Sell

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