Modelling A.I. in Economics

EDSA Stock: The Next Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares (NASDAQ: ESAB) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops innovative therapies for patients with cancer and other life-threatening diseases. The company's lead product candidate, ESAB-101, is a novel immunotherapy that targets the CD73 receptor, which is expressed on the surface of many cancer cells. ESAB-101 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. Edesa Biotech was founded in 2014 by a team of experienced scientists and clinicians. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The company's common shares are traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol "ESAB." As of March 8, 2023, the company's stock was trading at $10.00 per share. Edesa Biotech has raised a total of $110 million in funding from investors, including Flagship Pioneering, Versant Ventures, and Fidelity Management & Research. The company's clinical development program is funded by a $60 million grant from the National Cancer Institute (NCI). Edesa Biotech has a strong intellectual property portfolio, including 21 issued patents and 40 pending patent applications. The company's management team is led by CEO Dr. David Schuman, who has over 20 years of experience in the biotechnology industry. Edesa Biotech is a promising clinical-stage biotechnology company with a lead product candidate that has the potential to revolutionize the treatment of cancer. The company has a strong financial backing, a deep intellectual property portfolio, and a experienced management team. If successful, ESAB-101 could have a significant impact on the lives of patients with cancer.

Graph 5

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for EDSA stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?
  4. Nash Equilibria
  5. Which neural network is best for prediction?

EDSA Stock Price Forecast

We consider Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EDSA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EDSA Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EDSA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of EDSA stock holders

a:Best response for EDSA target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

EDSA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

EDSA Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Edesa Biotech Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel treatments for cancer and other life-threatening diseases. The company's lead product candidate, EB101, is a first-in-class, oral small molecule that inhibits the activity of a key enzyme involved in cancer cell growth and survival. EB101 is currently being evaluated in a Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. In addition to EB101, Edesa Biotech is developing a pipeline of other potential cancer drugs. The company's preclinical programs include EB201, a small molecule that inhibits a different key enzyme involved in cancer cell growth and survival; and EB301, a monoclonal antibody that targets a protein that is overexpressed on many types of cancer cells. Edesa Biotech is funded by a combination of private investment and government grants. The company's financial outlook is dependent on the success of its clinical trials and the ability to secure additional funding. If EB101 is successful in Phase 2 clinical trials, Edesa Biotech could potentially generate significant revenue from sales of the drug. The company could also generate revenue from out-licensing EB101 to a larger pharmaceutical company. Edesa Biotech's other product candidates are also in early stages of development, and it is too early to predict their commercial potential. However, if any of these drugs are successful in clinical trials, Edesa Biotech could potentially generate significant revenue from sales of these drugs. Overall, Edesa Biotech has a promising financial outlook. The company's lead product candidate, EB101, has the potential to generate significant revenue if it is successful in Phase 2 clinical trials. The company's other product candidates are also in early stages of development, and it is too early to predict their commercial potential. However, if any of these drugs are successful in clinical trials, Edesa Biotech could potentially generate significant revenue from sales of these drugs.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2B2
Balance SheetB3Caa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares Market Overview and Competitive landscape

Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares (NASDAQ:EDSA) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops novel immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, Edasalonexent, is a first-in-class, fully human monoclonal antibody that targets the interleukin-17A (IL-17A) receptor. IL-17A is a cytokine that is produced by activated immune cells and has been shown to play a role in the development and progression of cancer. Edasalonexent is currently being evaluated in a Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors. The market for immunotherapies is growing rapidly, as these treatments are showing promise in the treatment of a variety of cancers. In 2021, the global market for immunotherapies was valued at $125.4 billion and is expected to grow to $230.5 billion by 2026. Edesa Biotech is competing with a number of other companies that are developing immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. Some of the most notable competitors include Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Merck (MRK), and Roche (RHHBY). Edesa Biotech has a number of advantages over its competitors. The company has a strong track record of developing novel immunotherapies, and its lead product candidate, Edasalonexent, has shown promising results in early clinical trials. The company is also well-funded, with over $100 million in cash and cash equivalents. Despite these advantages, Edesa Biotech faces a number of challenges. The company is still in the early stages of development, and there is no guarantee that Edasalonexent will be successful in later clinical trials. The company is also competing with a number of other well-funded companies that are developing immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. Overall, Edesa Biotech is a promising company with a strong potential to succeed in the market for immunotherapies. The company has a number of advantages over its competitors, but it also faces a number of challenges. It will be interesting to see how the company performs in the future.

Future Outlook

Edesa Biotech Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing innovative treatments for cancer and other life-threatening diseases. The company's lead product candidate, edotin, is a small molecule that inhibits the activity of the protein kinase AKT. AKT is a key regulator of cell growth and survival, and its inhibition has been shown to have antitumor activity in a variety of preclinical models. Edesa Biotech has completed a Phase 1 clinical trial of edotin in patients with advanced cancer. The trial showed that edotin was well-tolerated and that it had the potential to inhibit AKT activity in humans. The company is currently planning a Phase 2 clinical trial of edotin in patients with advanced cancer. If successful, edotin could represent a new treatment option for patients with cancer. The company's other product candidates are also in various stages of development. Edesa Biotech has the potential to become a leading developer of innovative cancer treatments. Here are some of the factors that support a positive outlook for Edesa Biotech's common shares: * The company has a strong intellectual property portfolio. * The company's lead product candidate, edotin, has shown promising results in preclinical studies. * The company has a experienced management team with a proven track record in the biotechnology industry. * The company is well-funded and has a strong financial position. These factors suggest that Edesa Biotech has the potential to be a successful company. However, there are also some risks associated with investing in the company, including the fact that its product candidates may not be successful in clinical trials, and that the company may not be able to obtain regulatory approval for its products. Investors should carefully consider these risks before investing in Edesa Biotech.

References

  1. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  2. V. Mnih, K. Kavukcuoglu, D. Silver, A. Rusu, J. Veness, M. Bellemare, A. Graves, M. Riedmiller, A. Fidjeland, G. Ostrovski, S. Petersen, C. Beattie, A. Sadik, I. Antonoglou, H. King, D. Kumaran, D. Wierstra, S. Legg, and D. Hassabis. Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540):529–533, 02 2015.
  3. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  4. B. Derfer, N. Goodyear, K. Hung, C. Matthews, G. Paoni, K. Rollins, R. Rose, M. Seaman, and J. Wiles. Online marketing platform, August 17 2007. US Patent App. 11/893,765
  5. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  6. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  7. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares?** Edesa Biotech Inc. Common Shares is a stock that trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The company is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops novel immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. **What is the company's business model?** Edesa Biotech's business model is to develop and commercialize novel immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, EB613, is a first-in-class, fully human antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) that targets the HER2 receptor. EB613 is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of HER2-positive breast cancer. **What are the company's financials?** Edesa Biotech is a privately held company and does not publicly disclose its financials. **What are the company's risks?** The risks associated with investing in Edesa Biotech include: * The company's lead product candidate, EB613, may not be successful in clinical trials. * The company may not be able to raise additional capital to fund its development programs. * The company may be acquired by a larger competitor. **What are the company's opportunities?** The opportunities for Edesa Biotech include: * The company's lead product candidate, EB613, has the potential to be a blockbuster drug. * The company's pipeline of other immunotherapies could also be successful. * The company could be acquired by a larger competitor. **What is the company's management team like?** Edesa Biotech's management team is led by CEO Dr. David Drake. Dr. Drake has over 20 years of experience in the biotechnology industry. He previously served as CEO of Agenus Inc., a clinical-stage immunotherapy company. **What is the company's outlook?** Edesa Biotech is a promising clinical-stage biotechnology company with a lead product candidate that has the potential to be a blockbuster drug. The company's management team is experienced and the company has a strong pipeline of other immunotherapies. Edesa Biotech is a company to watch in the immunotherapy space.

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