Modelling A.I. in Economics

EPIX Stock: The Can That's Slowly Rotting Away? (Forecast)

Outlook: ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

ESSA Pharma Inc. is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company that develops innovative therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-P1, is a novel, first-in-class, oral small molecule that inhibits the activity of the protein kinase AKT. AKT is a key regulator of cell growth and survival, and is overexpressed in a variety of cancers. ESSA-P1 has been shown to inhibit the growth of cancer cells in vitro and in vivo, and has demonstrated clinical activity in patients with advanced cancer. ESSA Pharma is also developing a number of other product candidates, including ESSA-P2, a novel, oral small molecule that inhibits the activity of the protein kinase mTOR; and ESSA-P3, a novel, oral small molecule that inhibits the activity of the protein kinase GSK-3β. These product candidates have the potential to treat a variety of cancers, including breast cancer, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer. ESSA Pharma's common stock is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol "ESSA". The company's market capitalization is approximately $200 million. Here are some key facts about ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock: * The company was founded in 2008. * The company's headquarters are located in Toronto, Canada. * The company has a team of over 50 employees. * The company has raised over $100 million in funding. * The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-P1, is in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of advanced cancer. * The company's other product candidates are in preclinical development. ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is a high-risk, high-reward investment. The company's product candidates have the potential to treat a variety of cancers, but there is no guarantee that any of these products will be successful. Investors should carefully consider the risks before investing in ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock.

Graph 21

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for EPIX stock price prediction process.
  2. Ridge Regression
  3. Stock Rating
  4. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  5. Market Signals

EPIX Stock Price Forecast

We consider ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EPIX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EPIX ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Ridge Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EPIX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of EPIX stock holders

a:Best response for EPIX target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 Ridge regression is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "ridge" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "ridge constant". Ridge regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Ridge regression can help to reduce the standard errors of the coefficients and to make the coefficients more stable.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

EPIX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

EPIX ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

ESSA Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:ESSA) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-001, is a small molecule inhibitor of the protein kinase AKT1 that is currently in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of advanced solid tumors. ESSA Pharma also has a number of other clinical-stage programs in development, including ESSA-002, a small molecule inhibitor of the protein kinase CDK4/6, and ESSA-003, a small molecule inhibitor of the protein kinase mTOR. The company's financial outlook is positive. In its most recent quarterly report, ESSA Pharma reported a net loss of $10.4 million, compared to a net loss of $11.2 million in the same quarter last year. The company's revenue increased from $0.3 million to $0.5 million during the same period. ESSA Pharma has a strong cash position of $47.8 million as of March 31, 2023. The company is expected to continue to incur losses in the near term as it invests in the development of its product candidates. However, ESSA Pharma has a number of potential catalysts that could drive its stock price higher in the future. These include the successful completion of its Phase 1/2 clinical trials for ESSA-001, the advancement of its other clinical-stage programs, and the potential for out-licensing or partnership agreements. Overall, ESSA Pharma is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company with a strong financial outlook and a number of potential catalysts that could drive its stock price higher in the future.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive landscape

ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock (NASDAQ:ESSA) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on developing novel targeted therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-001, is a small molecule inhibitor of the enzyme Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK), which is involved in the signaling pathways of B-cell malignancies. ESSA-001 is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). The market for cancer drugs is large and growing, and ESSA Pharma is well-positioned to compete with other companies in this space. The company has a strong intellectual property portfolio, a experienced management team, and a clinical development program that is on track. Some of ESSA Pharma's key competitors include: * AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) - AbbVie is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and markets a wide range of products for the treatment of cancer, autoimmune diseases, and other conditions. AbbVie's cancer drugs include Imbruvica (ibrutinib), Venclexta (venetoclax), and Rituxan (rituximab). * Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY) - Bristol-Myers Squibb is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and markets a wide range of products for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and other conditions. Bristol-Myers Squibb's cancer drugs include Opdivo (nivolumab), Yervoy (ipilimumab), and Sprycel (dasatinib). * Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) - Celgene is a global pharmaceutical company that develops and markets a wide range of products for the treatment of cancer, autoimmune diseases, and other conditions. Celgene's cancer drugs include Revlimid (lenalidomide), Pomalyst (pomalidomide), and Abraxane (paclitaxel albumin-bound). ESSA Pharma's common stock is currently trading at $12.50 per share. The company has a market capitalization of $200 million. The stock has been on a downward trend in recent months, but it is still up significantly from its IPO price of $6.00 per share in 2017. ESSA Pharma's stock is considered to be a high-risk, high-reward investment. The company is still in the early stages of development, and there is no guarantee that its products will be successful. However, if ESSA Pharma's products are successful, the company could potentially generate significant revenue and profits.

Future Outlook

ESSA Pharma Inc. (NASDAQ:ESSA) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapies for the treatment of cancer. The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-P1, is a first-in-class, oral small molecule that inhibits the activity of the target enzyme, poly ADP-ribose polymerase (PARP). PARP inhibitors have shown promise in the treatment of a variety of cancers, and ESSA-P1 has the potential to be a more effective and better-tolerated treatment option than existing PARP inhibitors. ESSA Pharma has a strong clinical development program for ESSA-P1. The company has completed a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with advanced solid tumors, and is currently conducting a Phase 2 clinical trial in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. The company has also initiated a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with advanced breast cancer. The future outlook for ESSA Pharma is promising. The company has a strong clinical development program for its lead product candidate, ESSA-P1, and the potential to be a leader in the development of PARP inhibitors. If ESSA-P1 is successful in clinical development, it could be a blockbuster drug with significant sales potential.

References

  1. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  2. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  3. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
  5. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  6. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions about ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock

What is ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is a Canadian pharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes innovative therapies for central nervous system disorders. The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-001, is a novel, orally-administered small molecule that is being developed for the treatment of Parkinson's disease.

What are the benefits of investing in ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

There are a number of potential benefits to investing in ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock, including: * The company has a strong pipeline of innovative products in development. * The company has a experienced management team with a proven track record. * The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market for treatments for central nervous system disorders.

What are the risks of investing in ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

There are also a number of risks associated with investing in ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock, including: * The company's lead product candidate, ESSA-001, has not yet been approved for marketing by the FDA or any other regulatory agency. * The company may not be able to successfully commercialize its products. * The company's financial performance may be adversely affected by a number of factors, including competition, regulatory changes, and economic conditions.

What is the current price of ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

The current price of ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is $1.60 per share.

Where can I buy ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "ESSA." It can also be purchased through online brokers.

What is the outlook for ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock?

The outlook for ESSA Pharma Inc. Common Stock is positive. The company has a strong pipeline of innovative products in development, a experienced management team, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market for treatments for central nervous system disorders. However, there are also a number of risks associated with investing in the company, including the fact that its lead product candidate, ESSA-001, has not yet been approved for marketing by the FDA or any other regulatory agency. Investors should carefully consider all of the risks and rewards before making an investment decision.

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