Modelling A.I. in Economics

ETV Stock: The Next Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

ETV stock (ticker symbol: ETV) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index. The fund is composed of small-cap stocks from developed markets outside the United States. ETV has a total expense ratio of 0.45% and a dividend yield of 2.2%. The iShares MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index is a market-cap weighted index that measures the performance of small-cap stocks from developed markets outside the United States. The index includes stocks from 21 countries, with a focus on Europe, Australasia, and the Far East. ETV is a good option for investors who are looking for exposure to small-cap stocks from developed markets outside the United States. The fund has a low expense ratio and a high dividend yield, making it a good option for income-oriented investors. Here are some of the key things to know about ETV stock: * The fund is managed by BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset managers. * ETV has a long history, having been launched in 2006. * The fund has a relatively low expense ratio of 0.45%. * ETV has a high dividend yield of 2.2%. * The fund is relatively volatile, with an annualized standard deviation of 16.2%. * ETV is a good option for investors who are looking for exposure to small-cap stocks from developed markets outside the United States. Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ETV stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 51

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for ETV stock price prediction process.
  2. Ridge Regression
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  4. What is a prediction confidence?
  5. Which neural network is best for prediction?

ETV Stock Price Forecast

We consider Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ETV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ETV Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Ridge Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ETV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ETV stock holders

a:Best response for ETV target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 Ridge regression is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "ridge" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "ridge constant". Ridge regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Ridge regression can help to reduce the standard errors of the coefficients and to make the coefficients more stable.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

ETV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based ETV Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.
  2. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  3. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ETV Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

The Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund (NYSE: ETW) is a closed-end fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of equity securities. The fund's investment objective is to provide a high level of current income exempt from regular federal income tax, with capital appreciation as a secondary objective. The fund's financial outlook is positive. The fund's assets under management have been growing steadily in recent years, and the fund has a strong track record of performance. The fund's expense ratio is low, and its distribution yield is attractive. However, there are some risks associated with investing in the fund. The fund's investments are subject to market risk, and the fund's performance could be negatively impacted by a decline in the stock market. Additionally, the fund's distributions are not guaranteed, and the fund's net asset value could decline. Overall, the Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund is a well-managed fund with a strong track record of performance. The fund's financial outlook is positive, and the fund is a good option for investors seeking a high level of current income exempt from regular federal income tax.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetBa3Baa2
Leverage RatiosBa3C
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  3. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  4. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.
  7. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ETV stock expected to rise?
A: ETV stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ETV stock is Hold
Q: Is ETV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ETV Stock.
Q: Is Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eaton Vance Corporation Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write Opportunities Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Hold and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ETV stock?
A: The consensus rating for ETV is Hold.
Q: What is the forecast for ETV stock?
A: ETV target price forecast: Hold

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