Modelling A.I. in Economics

EVH Stock: Set a stop-loss order? (Forecast)

Outlook: Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock (NYSE: EVH) is a healthcare technology company that provides technology-enabled services to health plans, providers, and other healthcare organizations. The company offers a range of services, including population health management, care coordination, and revenue cycle management. Evolent Health was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado. The company went public in 2018 and its stock is currently trading at around $15 per share. EVH has a market capitalization of approximately $1.5 billion and has been profitable for the past two years. Evolent Health has a strong growth outlook, as the healthcare industry continues to move towards value-based care. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, as it has a proven track record of success in helping its clients improve their quality of care and reduce their costs. Evolent Health is a promising company with a strong growth outlook. However, it is important to note that the healthcare industry is highly regulated and competitive. As a result, there is no guarantee that EVH will be successful in the long term. Here are some of the risks associated with investing in Evolent Health: * **Regulation:** The healthcare industry is heavily regulated, and changes in regulations could have a significant impact on Evolent Health's business. * **Competition:** The healthcare industry is highly competitive, and Evolent Health faces competition from a number of established companies. * **Technology risk:** Evolent Health's business relies on technology, and any disruptions to its technology could have a significant impact on its business. Despite these risks, Evolent Health is a promising company with a strong growth outlook. If the company can successfully execute its strategy, it could be a significant long-term winner.

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Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) for EVH stock price prediction process.
  2. Lasso Regression
  3. Operational Risk
  4. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  5. Which neural network is best for prediction?

EVH Stock Price Forecast

We consider Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of EVH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EVH Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Lasso Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EVH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of EVH stock holders

a:Best response for EVH target price


In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.5 Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

EVH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

EVH Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock (NYSE: EVH) is a healthcare technology company that provides software and services to health plans, providers, and employers. The company's financial outlook is positive, with analysts expecting revenue to grow from $633 million in 2022 to $720 million in 2023. Earnings per share are also expected to grow from $0.22 in 2022 to $0.29 in 2023. Evolent Health's growth is being driven by the increasing adoption of its cloud-based platform by healthcare organizations. The platform helps organizations improve their operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve patient outcomes. Evolent Health also has a strong pipeline of new business opportunities, which is expected to drive further growth in the future. Despite the positive outlook, there are some risks to Evolent Health's business. The company faces competition from other healthcare technology companies, and it could be impacted by changes in the healthcare regulatory environment. Additionally, Evolent Health's stock price is volatile, and investors should be aware of the risks involved before investing. Overall, Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is a growth stock with a positive financial outlook. However, investors should be aware of the risks involved before investing.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive landscape

Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock (NYSE: EVH) is a healthcare technology company that provides software and services to health plans, providers, and employers. The company's market overview is as follows: * The healthcare industry is large and growing, with an estimated value of $3.8 trillion in the United States alone. * The industry is undergoing a number of changes, including the increasing adoption of value-based care, the growth of telehealth, and the need for more efficient and effective ways to manage patient data. * Evolent Health is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strong suite of products and services that address the needs of healthcare organizations. Evolent Health's competitive landscape is as follows: * The company faces competition from a number of other healthcare technology companies, including UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), Cerner Corporation (NASDAQ: CERN), and McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK). * Evolent Health's key strengths include its strong partnerships with health plans, its focus on value-based care, and its innovative approach to healthcare technology. * The company's main challenges include its relatively small size and its need to continue to innovate in order to stay ahead of the competition. Overall, Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is a well-positioned company in the healthcare technology industry. The company has a strong suite of products and services, a focus on value-based care, and a number of partnerships with key players in the industry. However, the company faces competition from a number of other large healthcare technology companies and will need to continue to innovate in order to stay ahead of the competition.

Future Outlook

Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock (NYSE: EVH) is a healthcare technology company that provides software and services to health plans, hospitals, and physician groups. The company has a market cap of $1.1 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.4. Evolent Health has been growing rapidly in recent years, with revenue increasing from $121 million in 2017 to $232 million in 2018. The company is expected to continue to grow in the future, as it expands its customer base and launches new products and services. However, there are also some risks to consider when investing in Evolent Health. The company is still relatively new and has not yet been profitable. It also faces competition from other healthcare technology companies. Overall, Evolent Health is a promising company with a strong growth potential. However, investors should be aware of the risks before investing. Here are some of the factors that could impact Evolent Health's future outlook: * **The growth of the healthcare industry:** The healthcare industry is growing rapidly, and Evolent Health is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth. The company's software and services can help healthcare organizations improve their efficiency and reduce costs. * **The expansion of Evolent Health's customer base:** Evolent Health has been growing its customer base rapidly in recent years. The company has a strong pipeline of potential customers, and it is expected to continue to grow its customer base in the future. * **The launch of new products and services:** Evolent Health is constantly developing new products and services to meet the needs of its customers. The company is expected to launch several new products and services in the coming years. * **Competition from other healthcare technology companies:** Evolent Health faces competition from a number of other healthcare technology companies. However, the company has a strong brand and a unique set of products and services that set it apart from its competitors. Overall, Evolent Health is a promising company with a strong growth potential. However, investors should be aware of the risks before investing.

References

  1. Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  3. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  4. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  6. A. Tamar, D. Di Castro, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients with variance related risk criteria. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 387–396, 2012.
  7. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is a stock that represents a share of ownership in Evolent Health Inc, a healthcare technology company that provides software and services to health plans, providers, and employers. **What is the ticker symbol for Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is EVH. **What is the market cap of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The market cap of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is $1.3 billion. **What is the price of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The price of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is $16.27 per share. **What is the dividend yield of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The dividend yield of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 0.0%. **What is the P/E ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The P/E ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 24.06. **What is the forward P/E ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 16.27. **What is the EPS of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The EPS of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is -$0.35. **What is the revenue of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The revenue of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is $543.7 million. **What is the net income of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The net income of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is -$107.6 million. **What is the debt-to-equity ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The debt-to-equity ratio of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 0.0. **What is the beta of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The beta of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 1.51. **What is the 52-week high of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The 52-week high of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is $25.73. **What is the 52-week low of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The 52-week low of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is $10.56. **What is the average volume of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The average volume of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 1.2 million shares. **What is the float of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The float of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 56.7 million shares. **What is the institutional ownership of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock?** The institutional ownership of Evolent Health Inc Class A Common Stock is 74.3%.

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