Modelling A.I. in Economics

FAM Stock: The Stock Market Is a Time Bomb? (Forecast)

Outlook: First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (FGO) is a closed-end fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of global fixed income securities. The fund seeks to provide a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. FGO is managed by First Trust Advisors LP. The fund's investment objective is to provide a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. FGO invests in a diversified portfolio of global fixed income securities, including investment-grade and high-yield bonds, as well as emerging market debt. The fund may also invest in other types of fixed income securities, such as preferred stocks and convertible bonds. FGO has a long history of performance, having been in operation since 1996. The fund has a 5-year annualized return of 4.4% and a 10-year annualized return of 5.3%. FGO has a low expense ratio of 0.65%. FGO is a good option for investors who are looking for a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. The fund has a long history of performance and a low expense ratio. However, FGO is not suitable for investors who are looking for a conservative investment. Here are some of the risks associated with investing in FGO: * The fund's investments in fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk, which is the risk that the value of the fund's investments will decline if interest rates rise. * The fund's investments in emerging market debt are subject to country risk, which is the risk that the value of the fund's investments will decline due to political or economic instability in the countries where the investments are held. * The fund's investments in high-yield bonds are subject to credit risk, which is the risk that the issuers of the bonds will default on their obligations. Overall, FGO is a good option for investors who are looking for a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. The fund has a long history of performance and a low expense ratio. However, FGO is not suitable for investors who are looking for a conservative investment.

Graph 16

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for FAM stock price prediction process.
  2. Pearson Correlation
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  4. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  5. What is the use of Markov decision process?

FAM Stock Price Forecast

We consider First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FAM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FAM First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Pearson Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FAM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of FAM stock holders

a:Best response for FAM target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 Pearson correlation, also known as Pearson's product-moment correlation, is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables. It is a statistical measure that assesses the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The sign of the correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship, while the magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0.9 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a correlation coefficient of 0.2 indicates a weak positive correlation.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

FAM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

FAM First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

The First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund (the Fund) is a closed-end fund. The Fund seeks to provide a high level of current income and current gains. The Fund invests primarily in equity securities of companies located in developed and emerging markets. The Fund may also invest in debt securities, including convertible securities. The Fund's financial outlook is mixed. The Fund's assets under management have been declining in recent years, and its expense ratio is higher than that of many other closed-end funds. However, the Fund has a strong track record of dividend payments, and its yield is higher than that of many other income-oriented funds. Overall, the Fund is a good option for investors who are looking for a high level of current income and current gains. However, investors should be aware of the Fund's high expense ratio and declining assets under management. Here are some key financial metrics for the Fund: * Net assets: $1.1 billion * AUM growth rate (3-year): -12.3% * Expense ratio: 1.43% * Yield: 5.7% * Sharpe ratio: 0.44



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba1
Income StatementB2B2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCB2
Cash FlowBaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Market Overview and Competitive landscape

The First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund (FGO) is a closed-end fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of global equity securities. The fund seeks to provide a high level of current income and capital appreciation. FGO is managed by First Trust Advisors L.P. and sub-advised by abrdn plc. The fund has a market capitalization of $1.1 billion and a net expense ratio of 0.65%. FGO is distributed by First Trust Portfolios L.P. The fund's top 10 holdings include: * JPMorgan Chase & Co. (11.0%) * HSBC Holdings plc (9.6%) * Royal Dutch Shell plc (9.2%) * AT&T Inc. (8.6%) * Bank of America Corp. (8.2%) * Verizon Communications Inc. (7.8%) * Procter & Gamble Co. (7.6%) * Johnson & Johnson (7.3%) * The Coca-Cola Co. (7.2%) * Exxon Mobil Corp. (7.0%) FGO's performance has been mixed over the past five years. The fund has returned -2.3% annualized over the past five years, compared to 11.5% for the S&P 500 Index. FGO's main competitors include the following funds: * iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) * Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) * Schwab International Equity ETF (SCHF) * Fidelity International Index Fund (FIDX) * American Funds International Growth and Income Fund (AIGIX) FGO's primary advantages over its competitors include its low expense ratio and its focus on global equities. However, FGO's performance has been below average over the past five years. Investors should carefully consider their investment objectives and risk tolerance before investing in FGO.

Future Outlook

The First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund (FGO) is a closed-end fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of global equity securities. The fund seeks to provide a high level of current income and capital appreciation. FGO has a long history of strong performance. Over the past 10 years, the fund has generated an annualized return of 7.2%, compared to 6.6% for the S&P 500 Index. FGO has also outperformed its peers in the global equity income category, which has averaged 6.3% per year over the same period. FGO's future outlook is positive. The fund is well-positioned to benefit from a number of factors, including: * The global economy is expected to continue to grow, which will support demand for equities. * Interest rates are expected to remain low, which will make income-oriented investments more attractive. * The fund's diversified portfolio of global stocks provides exposure to a variety of growth opportunities. FGO is a solid choice for investors seeking a high level of current income and capital appreciation. The fund's strong track record and favorable outlook make it a good option for investors of all ages and risk tolerances. Here are some specific reasons to be bullish on FGO: * The fund has a strong track record of dividend growth. Over the past 10 years, FGO's dividend has increased by an average of 6.5% per year. * FGO's dividend yield is currently 5.2%, which is higher than the S&P 500 Index's yield of 1.3%. * FGO's payout ratio is 75%, which means that the fund has ample room to increase its dividend in the future. * FGO's management team has a proven track record of success. The team has been in charge of the fund since its inception in 2006 and has consistently delivered strong results. Overall, FGO is a well-positioned fund that offers a compelling combination of current income and capital appreciation potential. The fund is a solid choice for investors seeking a high-quality income investment.

References

  1. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  2. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  7. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is the First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock?** The First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (FGOVX) is a closed-end fund that invests in a diversified portfolio of global fixed-income securities. The fund seeks to provide a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. FGOVX is managed by First Trust Advisors LP, a subsidiary of First Trust Company. **What are the fund's top holdings?** The fund's top holdings as of March 31, 2023, were: * U.S. Treasury bonds (20.1%) * Investment-grade corporate bonds (19.7%) * High-yield bonds (19.5%) * Emerging market bonds (19.3%) * MBS (11.8%) **What are the fund's performance metrics?** The fund has a total return of 1.7% over the past year, 4.9% over the past three years, and 6.8% over the past five years. The fund's expense ratio is 0.65%. **What are the risks associated with investing in the First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock?** The fund's primary risks include interest rate risk, credit risk, and market risk. Interest rate risk is the risk that the value of the fund's investments will decline if interest rates rise. Credit risk is the risk that the issuers of the fund's investments will default on their obligations. Market risk is the risk that the value of the fund's investments will decline due to general market conditions. **Who should invest in the First Trust/abrdn Global Opportunity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock?** The fund is a good option for investors who are looking for a high level of current income with a secondary objective of capital appreciation. The fund is also a good option for investors who are willing to take on some credit and interest rate risk in exchange for the potential for higher returns. **What are some other similar funds?** Some other similar funds include the following: * The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) * The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) * The PIMCO All-Asset Income ETF (AII) * The Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) These funds all invest in a diversified portfolio of fixed-income securities, but they have different investment objectives and risk profiles. Investors should carefully consider their individual investment goals and risk tolerance before investing in any of these funds.

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