Modelling A.I. in Economics

FIBK Stock: A Downfall?

Outlook: First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FIBK stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 2

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) for FIBK stock price prediction process.
  2. Chi-Square
  3. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  4. Is Target price a good indicator?
  5. Dominated Move

FIBK Stock Price Forecast

We consider First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FIBK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FIBK First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE)
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Chi-Square)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FIBK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of FIBK stock holders

a:Best response for FIBK target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

FIBK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) based FIBK Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  2. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
  3. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.
  4. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

FIBK First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa1B2
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowCaa2Ba2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  3. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  4. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  5. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  7. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is FIBK stock expected to rise?
A: FIBK stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Chi-Square and it is concluded that dominant strategy for FIBK stock is Sell
Q: Is FIBK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell FIBK Stock.
Q: Is First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Interstate BancSystem Inc. Common Stock (DE) is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FIBK stock?
A: The consensus rating for FIBK is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for FIBK stock?
A: FIBK target price forecast: Sell

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