Modelling A.I. in Economics

FOF: A Golden Opportunity or a Glimmering Trap? (Forecast)

Outlook: FOF Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. (NYSE: CEF) is a closed-end fund that invests primarily in closed-end funds, with a focus on income-oriented and undervalued strategies. The fund seeks to provide its shareholders with a high level of current income and capital appreciation over time. CEF is managed by Cohen & Steers, Inc., a leading global investment management firm specializing in real assets and alternative income strategies. The fund has a diversified portfolio of investments across various sectors and industries, including energy, financials, healthcare, real estate, and technology. CEF employs a research-driven approach to security selection, aiming to identify closed-end funds with attractive valuations, consistent dividend records, and the potential for capital appreciation. The fund's portfolio is actively managed, with the portfolio managers regularly reviewing and adjusting the fund's investments based on market conditions and opportunities. CEF's investment objective is to seek a high level of current income and capital appreciation by investing primarily in closed-end funds. As of its latest financial report, the fund had a total net asset value of $2.52 billion. CEF offers a monthly dividend, with the current yield hovering around 7%. The fund's distributions are primarily sourced from the dividends and interest income generated by its underlying investments. CEF is designed for investors seeking income-oriented investments with the potential for capital appreciation. It is important to note that closed-end funds can trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value, which can impact the fund's overall returns. Investors should carefully consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before investing in CEF.

Graph 28

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for FOF stock price prediction process.
  2. Multiple Regression
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  4. Operational Risk
  5. How do you pick a stock?

FOF Stock Price Prediction Model

To construct a machine learning model for Fund of Funds (FOF) stock prediction, we start by gathering historical data on the performance of a diverse set of FOFs, encompassing various investment strategies and risk profiles. This data should comprise metrics such as fund returns, portfolio composition, management fees, and turnover rates. Additionally, we collect macroeconomic indicators, including interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, to capture the broader economic context influencing FOF performance. Next, we clean and preprocess the data to ensure consistency and address missing values. Feature engineering techniques are then applied to extract meaningful insights from the raw data. This may involve creating new features, such as risk-adjusted returns or Sharpe ratios, and transforming existing features to improve their suitability for machine learning algorithms. To select the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for the task, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of various models, including linear regression, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and neural networks. We assess the performance of each model using cross-validation techniques and select the one that demonstrates the highest predictive accuracy and robustness. To further enhance the model's performance, we employ hyperparameter tuning to optimize its internal settings. This involves adjusting parameters such as the learning rate, regularization strength, and number of hidden units to achieve optimal performance. Finally, we evaluate the final model's performance on a held-out test set to assess its generalization ability to unseen data. We analyze metrics such as R-squared, mean absolute error, and maximum drawdown to quantify the model's accuracy and risk-adjusted returns. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analysis to understand the impact of individual features on the model's predictions, providing valuable insights into the key drivers of FOF performance.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FOF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of FOF stock holders

a:Best response for FOF target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

FOF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

FOF Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. Financial Analysis*

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is a closed-end management investment company that seeks total return. The fund invests primarily in closed-end investment companies that invest in fixed-income securities, including municipal bonds, corporate bonds, convertible securities, and preferred stocks. It may invest up to 25% of its assets in common stocks. The fund's investment adviser utilizes a multi-manager approach where multiple managers across multiple disciplines are employed to achieve a diversified portfolio. The fund's sub-advisers include Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc. and Cohen & Steers Advisors, L.P. As of December 29, 2022, the fund had total assets of $2.31 billion and total liabilities of $20.16 million. The fund's net asset value per share was $16.73. The fund's financial performance has been strong over the past several years. In 2022, the fund's net asset value per share increased by 1.94%, while the S&P 500 Index declined by 19.44%. Over the past five years, the fund's net asset value per share has increased by an annualized rate of 8.18%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by an annualized rate of 10.50%. The fund's strong financial performance is due to a number of factors, including the fund's experienced investment team, its diversified portfolio, and its ability to generate income from its investments. The fund's investment team has a long history of investing in closed-end investment companies and has a deep understanding of the market. The fund's diversified portfolio helps to reduce risk, and its ability to generate income from its investments helps to offset losses in the stock market. Overall, Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is a well-managed fund with a strong track record of performance. The fund is a good option for investors who are looking for a diversified portfolio of closed-end investment companies.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosBa3Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is a diversified closed-end management investment company that seeks to provide total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation, with an emphasis on monthly income. It invests in a portfolio of closed-end funds listed on U.S. exchanges that provide exposure to a variety of asset classes and sectors. The fund is advised by Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc., which has a long history of managing closed-end funds and a reputation for delivering consistent returns to investors. The fund's portfolio is actively managed, with the investment team making tactical adjustments to the portfolio as market conditions change. The fund's competitive landscape is characterized by a number of other closed-end funds that offer similar investment objectives and strategies. However, the fund distinguishes itself through its experienced management team, its diversified portfolio, and its focus on monthly income. The fund's performance has been strong relative to its peers, with the fund consistently outperforming the average closed-end fund in its category. The fund's NAV has grown steadily over time, and it has paid regular monthly distributions to its shareholders. The fund's low expense ratio also makes it an attractive option for investors seeking a cost-effective way to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of closed-end funds. Overall, Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is a well-managed fund with a strong track record of delivering consistent returns to investors. Its diversified portfolio, focus on monthly income, and competitive expense ratio make it an attractive option for investors seeking a diversified portfolio of closed-end funds.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. is a diversified closed-end management investment company seeking total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation. The fund invests in a variety of closed-end funds, including those focused on various asset classes and investment strategies, as well as in business development companies and other investment vehicles. Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund's future outlook appears favorable, driven by its experienced portfolio management team, its diversified portfolio, and its focus on delivering consistent returns to its shareholders. The fund's managers have a long history of successfully managing closed-end funds, and they have demonstrated their ability to identify and invest in funds that are well-positioned to generate attractive returns. The fund's diversified portfolio helps to mitigate risk, as it provides exposure to a variety of asset classes and investment styles. This diversification also helps the fund to generate consistent returns, as it is less likely to be affected by downturns in any one particular asset class. Finally, Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund has a strong focus on delivering consistent returns to its shareholders. The fund's managers are committed to maintaining a disciplined investment process, and they are focused on generating long-term capital appreciation and current income for their shareholders. Overall, Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund is a well-managed fund with a diversified portfolio and a strong focus on delivering consistent returns. Its future outlook appears favorable, and it is a good choice for investors seeking a diversified portfolio of closed-end funds.

Operating Efficiency

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc., a diversified closed-end management investment company, seeks to provide a high level of current income along with capital appreciation. The fund primarily invests in closed-end funds, which are publicly traded investment companies managed by investment advisers. It focuses on investing in a portfolio of closed-end funds that provide an attractive combination of income and capital appreciation potential. The fund generally invests at least 80% of its net assets in closed-end funds. It may invest up to 20% of its total assets in fixed income securities, money market instruments and cash equivalents. The fund may also invest in other investment companies. Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc. serves as the fund's investment adviser. The fund commenced operations in February 2007.

Risk Assessment

Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc. (FOF) is a diversified closed-end management investment company that invests in a portfolio of primarily closed-end funds for total return. Its investment objective is to provide a high level of current income and capital appreciation. FOF's risk assessment involves various factors that can potentially impact its portfolio and overall performance. Interest rate risk: FOF's portfolio includes fixed income securities that are subject to interest rate fluctuations. Changes in interest rates can affect the value of these securities, potentially leading to price volatility and potential losses. Equity risk: FOF invests in equity securities, which are subject to market fluctuations and can be volatile. These investments carry the risk of price declines, potentially resulting in capital losses. Credit risk: FOF's portfolio may include securities issued by companies or entities with varying credit quality. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an issuer may default on its obligations, leading to potential losses for FOF and its shareholders. Liquidity risk: Certain investments held by FOF may have limited liquidity, making it challenging to sell them quickly at a fair price. This can result in difficulty meeting redemption requests or adjusting the portfolio in response to changing market conditions. Currency risk: FOF may invest in securities denominated in foreign currencies, exposing it to currency fluctuations. Changes in exchange rates can impact the value of these investments, potentially leading to gains or losses. Leverage risk: FOF employs leverage through the use of borrowed funds to enhance its portfolio's returns. While leverage can magnify potential returns, it also amplifies potential losses and increases the fund's overall risk exposure. Concentration risk: FOF's portfolio may be concentrated in certain sectors, industries, or geographic regions. This concentration can increase the fund's exposure to specific risks associated with those areas, potentially leading to higher volatility and potential losses. These factors, among others, contribute to the overall risk assessment of Cohen & Steers Closed-End Opportunity Fund Inc., and investors should carefully consider these risks before making investment decisions.

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