Modelling A.I. in Economics

Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. (Forecast)

Outlook: Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GLP^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 3

Key Points

  1. Statistical Inference (ML) for GLP^A stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  4. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
  5. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

GLP^A Stock Price Forecast

We consider Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GLP^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GLP^A Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GLP^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GLP^A stock holders

a:Best response for GLP^A target price


Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GLP^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based GLP^A Stock Prediction Model

  1. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.
  2. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  3. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.
  4. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GLP^A Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB2B2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  2. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  4. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  5. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  6. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is GLP^A stock expected to rise?
A: GLP^A stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for GLP^A stock is Buy
Q: Is GLP^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy GLP^A Stock.
Q: Is Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Global Partners LP 9.75% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units representing limited partner interests is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GLP^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for GLP^A is Buy.
Q: What is the forecast for GLP^A stock?
A: GLP^A target price forecast: Buy

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