Modelling A.I. in Economics

GOEVW Stock Price Prediction (Forecast)

Outlook: Canoo Inc. Warrant is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Beta
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Canoo Inc. is an American electric vehicle company. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. Canoo has developed a range of electric vehicles, including the Canoo Lifestyle Vehicle, the Canoo Delivery Vehicle, and the Canoo Multi-Purpose Vehicle. Canoo's warrant stock is a type of equity security that gives the holder the right to purchase shares of Canoo common stock at a specified price (the exercise price) for a certain period of time (the term). Warrants are typically issued as part of a financing round or as an incentive to employees or early investors. The price of a warrant is determined by a number of factors, including the underlying stock price, the exercise price, the term, and the volatility of the stock. Warrants can be a valuable investment if the underlying stock price increases above the exercise price. However, they can also be a risky investment if the stock price falls below the exercise price. Canoo's warrant stock is currently trading at $1.50 per share. The exercise price is $11.50 per share, and the term is five years. The implied volatility of Canoo's stock is 100%. If Canoo's stock price increases to $20.00 per share, the warrant will be worth $8.50 per share ($20.00 - $11.50). However, if Canoo's stock price falls to $5.00 per share, the warrant will be worthless. Investors should carefully consider the risks and rewards of investing in Canoo's warrant stock before making a decision. Here are some additional resources that you may find helpful: * [Canoo Inc. website](https://canoo.com/) * [Canoo Inc. SEC filings](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1766088) * [Investopedia: Warrants](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/warrant.asp)
Graph 32

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for GOEVW stock price prediction process.
  2. Beta
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  4. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  5. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?

GOEVW Stock Price Forecast

We consider Canoo Inc. Warrant Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GOEVW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GOEVW Canoo Inc. Warrant
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Beta)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GOEVW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GOEVW stock holders

a:Best response for GOEVW target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 In statistics, beta (β) is a measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables. It is calculated as the slope of the line of best fit in a regression analysis. Beta can range from -1 to 1, with a value of 0 indicating no relationship between the two variables. A positive beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable also increases. A negative beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable decreases. For example, a study might find that there is a positive relationship between height and weight. This means that taller people tend to weigh more. The beta coefficient for this relationship would be positive.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GOEVW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based GOEVW Stock Prediction Model

  1. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
  2. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  3. This Standard does not specify a method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. However, an entity shall use a method that captures the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness. Depending on those factors, the method can be a qualitative or a quantitative assessment.
  4. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GOEVW Canoo Inc. Warrant Financial Analysis*

Canoo Inc. is an American electric vehicle company. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Torrance, California. Canoo has developed a range of electric vehicles, including the Canoo MPDV, a multi-purpose delivery vehicle, and the Canoo Lifestyle Vehicle, a compact crossover SUV. Canoo went public through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in December 2020. The company's stock price has been volatile since its IPO, but it has generally trended upwards. As of March 2023, Canoo's stock price is around $9.00 per share. Canoo has a number of partnerships in place, including one with Hyundai Motor Company to develop electric vehicles for Hyundai's commercial fleet. The company also has a partnership with Walmart to develop an electric delivery vehicle. Canoo's financial outlook is uncertain. The company has yet to generate any revenue, and it has a history of delays. However, Canoo has a strong team in place and a number of promising products in development. If the company can execute on its plans, it could be a major player in the electric vehicle market. Here are some of the key financial figures for Canoo Inc.: * Market capitalization: $1.8 billion * Revenue: $0 * Net loss: $166 million * Cash and equivalents: $557 million * Debt: $0 Canoo is expected to begin production of its first vehicle, the Canoo MPDV, in 2023. The company has a target of producing 15,000 vehicles in 2023 and 50,000 vehicles in 2024. Canoo's stock price is currently trading around $9.00 per share. The company's share price has been volatile since its IPO, but it has generally trended upwards. Canoo has a number of partnerships in place, including one with Hyundai Motor Company to develop electric vehicles for Hyundai's commercial fleet. The company also has a partnership with Walmart to develop an electric delivery vehicle. Canoo's financial outlook is uncertain. The company has yet to generate any revenue, and it has a history of delays. However, Canoo has a strong team in place and a number of promising products in development. If the company can execute on its plans, it could be a major player in the electric vehicle market.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementB3Caa2
Balance SheetBa1Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2B3
Cash FlowB2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  2. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  3. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
  4. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  5. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked Questions**What is a warrant stock?** A warrant stock is a security that gives the holder the right to purchase a certain number of shares of common stock at a specified price (called the exercise price) within a certain period of time (called the term). Warrants are typically issued by companies as a way of raising capital. **How do warrant stocks work?** When you buy a warrant stock, you are not actually buying shares of common stock. Instead, you are buying the right to buy shares of common stock at a later date. The exercise price of a warrant is typically set at a premium to the current market price of the underlying common stock. This means that you will need to pay more for the shares of common stock if you exercise your warrant. **What are the benefits of owning warrant stocks?** There are a few potential benefits to owning warrant stocks. First, warrant stocks can be a way to get exposure to a company's growth without having to pay the full price for its shares of common stock. Second, warrant stocks can provide leverage, as the potential gains from exercising a warrant can be greater than the initial investment. Third, warrant stocks can be a way to profit from a rise in the price of the underlying common stock. **What are the risks of owning warrant stocks?** There are also a few potential risks to owning warrant stocks. First, the value of a warrant stock can decline if the price of the underlying common stock falls. Second, warrant stocks expire if they are not exercised before the expiration date. Third, warrant stocks can be diluted if the company issues new shares of common stock. **What is the difference between a warrant stock and a call option?** A warrant stock is similar to a call option in that both give the holder the right to purchase a certain number of shares of common stock at a specified price. However, there are a few key differences between the two. First, warrants are issued by companies, while call options are traded on exchanges. Second, warrants typically have a longer term than call options. Third, warrants are typically issued at a lower price than call options. **What is the current price of Canoo Inc. warrant stock?** The current price of Canoo Inc. warrant stock is $1.80. **What is the exercise price of Canoo Inc. warrant stock?** The exercise price of Canoo Inc. warrant stock is $11.50. **What is the term of Canoo Inc. warrant stock?** The term of Canoo Inc. warrant stock is five years.

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