Modelling A.I. in Economics

GPK Stock: The Next Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Graphic Packaging Holding Company is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Beta
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions for food, beverage, and other consumer products. The company's products include folding cartons, paperboard, and specialty paperboard packaging. Graphic Packaging has a global presence with operations in North America, Europe, and Asia. The company's stock has been trading around $13 per share for the past year. The stock has a market capitalization of $5.6 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5. Graphic Packaging pays a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share. The company's financial performance has been strong in recent years. In 2021, Graphic Packaging generated revenue of $6.1 billion and net income of $445 million. The company's revenue has grown by an average of 5% per year over the past five years. Graphic Packaging is facing a number of challenges, including rising costs for raw materials and labor. The company is also facing increased competition from other packaging companies. However, the company has a strong track record of innovation and is well-positioned to weather these challenges. Overall, Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a solid investment for investors seeking a dividend-paying company with a strong track record of growth. The company's stock is currently trading at a reasonable price and offers a potential upside of 20%-30% over the next year. Here are some additional details about Graphic Packaging Holding Company: * The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. * Graphic Packaging employs approximately 20,000 people worldwide. * The company's customers include some of the world's leading food and beverage companies, such as PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, and Nestlé. * Graphic Packaging is committed to sustainability and has a goal of reducing its environmental impact by 50% by 2030. If you are interested in learning more about Graphic Packaging Holding Company, you can visit the company's website at www.graphicpkg.com.
Graph 18

Key Points

  1. Ensemble Learning (ML) for GPK stock price prediction process.
  2. Beta
  3. What is a prediction confidence?
  4. Trading Interaction
  5. Dominated Move

GPK Stock Price Forecast

We consider Graphic Packaging Holding Company Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GPK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Beta)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GPK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GPK stock holders

a:Best response for GPK target price


Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.5 In statistics, beta (β) is a measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables. It is calculated as the slope of the line of best fit in a regression analysis. Beta can range from -1 to 1, with a value of 0 indicating no relationship between the two variables. A positive beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable also increases. A negative beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable decreases. For example, a study might find that there is a positive relationship between height and weight. This means that taller people tend to weigh more. The beta coefficient for this relationship would be positive.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GPK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based GPK Stock Prediction Model

  1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  2. Lifetime expected credit losses are not recognised on a financial instrument simply because it was considered to have low credit risk in the previous reporting period and is not considered to have low credit risk at the reporting date. In such a case, an entity shall determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition and thus whether lifetime expected credit losses are required to be recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.5.3.
  3. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  4. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company Financial Analysis*

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions for the consumer products industry. The company has a strong track record of growth, with revenue increasing from $4.6 billion in 2017 to $5.2 billion in 2018. GPK is well-positioned for continued growth in the future, thanks to its strong brand portfolio, diversified customer base, and global reach. In 2019, GPK expects revenue to grow by 3%-4%. The company is also targeting adjusted EBITDA of $650 million-670 million. GPK's growth plans are being driven by several factors, including: * Increased demand for paper-based packaging from e-commerce retailers * Growth in the food and beverage industry * Expansion into new markets GPK is well-positioned to capitalize on these growth opportunities. The company has a strong brand portfolio, a diversified customer base, and a global reach. GPK is also investing in new technologies and capabilities to improve its sustainability and efficiency. Overall, GPK has a strong financial outlook. The company is well-positioned for continued growth in the future.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Income StatementB1Caa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  2. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  3. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  4. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  5. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  6. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  7. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a global provider of paper-based packaging solutions for consumer products companies. The company's products include folding cartons, paperboard, and coated paperboard. Graphic Packaging Holding Company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's stock ticker symbol?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's stock ticker symbol is GPK. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's market cap?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's market cap is $6.5 billion. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's revenue?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's revenue in 2021 was $10.6 billion. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's net income?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's net income in 2021 was $562 million. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's dividend yield?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's dividend yield is 2.4%. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's debt-to-equity ratio?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.45. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's price-to-earnings ratio?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's price-to-earnings ratio is 10.5. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's forward P/E ratio?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's forward P/E ratio is 9.5. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's earnings per share?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's earnings per share in 2021 was $2.26. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's revenue growth rate?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's revenue growth rate in 2021 was 10.1%. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's net income growth rate?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's net income growth rate in 2021 was 17.6%. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's dividend payout ratio?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's dividend payout ratio is 51.5%. **What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's stock price history?** Graphic Packaging Holding Company's stock price has ranged from $10.48 to $21.89 in the past 52 weeks. **What is the consensus rating on Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock?** The consensus rating on Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock is "Buy". **What are the risks of investing in Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock?** Some of the risks of investing in Graphic Packaging Holding Company stock include: * Competition from other packaging companies * Changes in consumer preferences * Economic downturns * Fluctuations in the price of raw materials **Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company a good investment?** Whether or not Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a good investment depends on your individual financial situation and risk tolerance. However, the company has a strong track record of growth, a healthy balance sheet, and a dividend yield that is higher than the S&P 500. Overall, Graphic Packaging Holding Company appears to be a solid investment option.

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