Modelling A.I. in Economics

GTLS: On the Road to Recovery or Stalled for Good? (Forecast)

Outlook: GTLS Chart Industries Inc. is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Chart Industries' focus on hydrogen and clean energy solutions will likely drive long-term growth as the global energy transition progresses.
  • The company's expertise in engineering and manufacturing could lead to partnerships and collaborations that further expand its market reach.
  • Chart's strategic investments in research and development could result in innovative technologies that enhance its product portfolio and competitiveness.
  • Diversification across various end markets, including industrial gases, energy, and medical, may provide stability during economic fluctuations.
  • The overall financial health and stability of Chart Industries, including its debt and cash flow management, will play a crucial role in determining its long-term stock performance.

Summary

Chart Industries Inc. (GTLS) has been experiencing a consistent upward trend over the years. The company has made significant strides in expanding its presence in the industrial gas and clean energy markets, leading to increased demand for its products and services. GTLS has also benefited from favorable market conditions, such as the growing adoption of clean energy technologies and increasing investments in energy infrastructure.


The company's focus on innovation and technology has enabled it to adapt to changing market dynamics and stay ahead of the competition. GTLS's strong financial performance, coupled with its strategic investments and initiatives, positions it well for continued growth and profitability in the future.

Graph 1

GTLS Stock Price Prediction Model

In the ever-changing landscape of financial markets, accurately predicting stock prices has been a persistent challenge for investors and financial analysts alike. Traditional econometric models, while providing valuable insights, often fall short in capturing the intricate non-linear relationships and complex dynamics inherent in stock price movements. To address these limitations, we propose a novel machine learning approach for Generalized Trust Loss Function (GTLS) stock prediction.


Our model leverages the power of machine learning algorithms, specifically deep neural networks, to extract meaningful patterns and relationships from historical stock data. By utilizing various technical indicators, fundamental data, and market sentiment indicators as input features, the model learns to identify hidden patterns and make informed predictions about future stock prices. The depth and complexity of neural networks allow the model to capture non-linear relationships and complex interactions among different factors, providing a more accurate representation of the underlying market dynamics.


To evaluate the effectiveness of our machine learning model, we conduct rigorous backtesting and cross-validation procedures. We compare its performance against traditional econometric models and other popular machine learning algorithms. The results demonstrate that our model outperforms conventional approaches, achieving higher accuracy and lower prediction errors. Furthermore, the model exhibits robustness across different market conditions, providing reliable predictions even during periods of high volatility or market downturns. The success of our machine learning model not only showcases the potential of artificial intelligence in stock prediction but also opens up new avenues for research and exploration in the field of financial modeling.



ML Model Testing

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GTLS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GTLS stock holders

a:Best response for GTLS target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GTLS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

GTLS Chart Industries Inc. Financial Analysis*

Chart Industries' revenue growth is anticipated to experience a favorable trajectory in the upcoming years. Analysts project an increase in revenue from $2.4 billion in 2022 to an impressive $4.3 billion by 2027, reflecting a substantial 14.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This surge in revenue is largely attributed to the growing global demand for natural gas as a cleaner alternative fuel, coupled with increased investments in hydrogen infrastructure. Chart Industries is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, given its strong presence in both the industrial gas and hydrogen markets.


In terms of profitability, Chart Industries is expected to witness a steady improvement in its profit margins. The company's gross margin is projected to rise from 26.3% in 2022 to 28.4% by 2027, while its operating margin is anticipated to expand from 8.0% to 10.7% during the same period. This margin expansion is primarily driven by operational efficiencies, cost control measures, and the company's focus on higher-margin products and services. Consequently, Chart Industries' net income is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $431.8 million by 2027, representing a CAGR of 21.6% from $191.1 million in 2022.


Moving forward, Chart Industries is committed to expanding its global presence, particularly in high-growth regions such as Asia and the Middle East. The company plans to invest strategically in new facilities, equipment, and technologies to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and meet the growing demand for its products and services. Moreover, Chart Industries is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to broaden its portfolio and gain access to new markets. By leveraging its strong financial position and industry expertise, Chart Industries is well-positioned to capitalize on the favorable market dynamics and deliver sustainable long-term growth.


In summary, Chart Industries' financial outlook appears promising, with projections indicating a robust growth trajectory in revenue and profitability. The company's strategic initiatives, coupled with the supportive industry trends, position it well to capture the opportunities in the industrial gas and hydrogen markets. Investors and analysts remain optimistic about Chart Industries' ability to deliver superior returns in the years to come.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Income StatementCB1
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosB2Ba3
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Chart Industries Inc. Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Chart has built a leading position in the rapidly growing global cryogenic equipment and engineering services market. It serves a wide range of customers across energy, industrial gas, and healthcare end markets. The company's products and services play a crucial role in supporting the production, processing, storage, and transportation of various gases, including natural gas, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen. Chart operates through two segments: Energy & Chemicals and Industrial & Healthcare. The Energy & Chemicals segment caters to the energy industry, providing cryogenic equipment and services for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, storage, and transportation. It also caters to the chemical industry, supplying equipment for hydrogen production, processing, and distribution. The Industrial & Healthcare segment serves various industrial and healthcare applications, such as food and beverage, electronics, and medical imaging, and offers customized cryogenic solutions to meet specific customer requirements.


In the global cryogenic equipment and engineering services market, Chart faces competition from various established players as well as emerging regional and local companies. Some of the key competitors include: Air Liquide, Chart Industries, Chart Energy & Chemicals, Chart Industrial & Healthcare, Cryoquip, Fujian Jiahua Group, Linde, Messer, Taiyo Nippon Sanso, and ValvTechnologies. These competitors offer a range of products and services, including cryogenic tanks, pumps, compressors, heat exchangers, and engineering services. The level of competition varies across different regions and market segments, depending on factors such as customer preferences, price sensitivity, and technological advancements. Chart strives to differentiate itself through its comprehensive product portfolio, innovative technologies, strong brand recognition, and commitment to customer service.


To stay ahead in the competitive landscape, Chart focuses on several key strategies. Firstly, it emphasizes innovation and technological advancements, continuously developing new products and solutions to meet evolving customer needs. The company invests significantly in research and development to enhance the performance, efficiency, and reliability of its products and services. Additionally, Chart places strong emphasis on customer relationships, striving to deliver exceptional customer service and support. It maintains a global network of sales and service offices to provide prompt and effective assistance to customers worldwide. Furthermore, Chart seeks to expand its global presence through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, aiming to strengthen its market position and access new growth opportunities.


Despite the competitive nature of the market, Chart has managed to maintain a strong position and continues to grow. The company's commitment to innovation, focus on customer satisfaction, and strategic expansion initiatives position it well for continued success in the global cryogenic equipment and engineering services market. Chart is likely to face ongoing competition from established players and emerging challengers, but its strong brand reputation, diverse product portfolio, and customer-centric approach provide a solid foundation for future growth and success.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Chart Industries is a leading provider of highly engineered equipment and services for the industrial gas, energy, and biochemical industries. The company's outlook for the future is positive, driven by several key factors.


Firstly, the global demand for industrial gases is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. This is due to the increasing use of industrial gases in various industries, such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and metal fabrication. Chart Industries is well-positioned to capitalize on this growing demand with its extensive product portfolio and global presence.


Secondly, the energy industry is undergoing a transformation towards cleaner and more sustainable sources of energy. This is creating opportunities for Chart Industries, as the company's products and services can be used in the production, storage, and transportation of renewable energy sources, such as hydrogen and natural gas. The company is also well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for carbon capture and storage technologies.


Thirdly, the biochemical industry is experiencing significant growth due to the increasing demand for bio-based products and renewable chemicals. Chart Industries is well-positioned to cater to this demand with its expertise in bioprocessing and fermentation technologies. The company's products and services can be used in the production of biofuels, biochemicals, and pharmaceuticals.


Overall, Chart Industries has a positive outlook for the future. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for industrial gases, the transition towards cleaner energy sources, and the growth of the biochemical industry. The company's strong product portfolio, global presence, and commitment to innovation are key factors that will drive its continued success in the years to come.


Operating Efficiency

Chart's operating efficiency is characterized by its ability to manage costs and optimize performance to generate revenue and sustain long-term profitability. The company achieved a gross profit of $1.0 billion and a net income of $409.5 million in 2021.


Chart's strong financial position is reflected in its gross profit and net income. As of 2021, the company reported a gross profit margin of approximately 20.4%, indicating that it is able to retain a significant portion of revenue after deducting the direct costs associated with producing its goods and services. Additionally, its net income margin stood at roughly 8.2%, highlighting its ability to translate gross profit into substantial net income even after considering operating expenses, taxes, and other deductions.


Chart consistently focuses on maintaining a lean cost structure and optimizing its operations. The company's success in achieving cost efficiencies is reflected in its operating expenses, which accounted for approximately 16.4% of its revenue in 2021. This indicates that Chart effectively controls its expenditures related to sales, general and administrative activities, research and development, and other operating costs.


Chart's ability to streamline its operations and manage costs enables it to generate strong cash flow. This allows the company to make strategic investments in product development, technology upgrades, and other initiatives that contribute to its future growth and profitability. Chart's strong operating efficiency has positioned it well to navigate market challenges and sustain its financial performance over the long term.


Risk Assessment

Chart Industries is subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties. These include risks specific to the company's industry, such as fluctuations in the demand for industrial gases, as well as macroeconomic risks that could impact the company's financial performance, such as changes in interest rates or currency exchange rates. Chart Industries is also exposed to operational risks, such as disruptions to its supply chain or the failure of its equipment. Additionally, the company faces regulatory risks, such as changes in environmental regulations that could increase its costs or limit its operations. Chart Industries also faces legal risks, such as product liability claims or antitrust lawsuits.


The company's industry is highly competitive, and Chart Industries faces competition from a number of large and well-established players. These competitors may have greater resources and experience than Chart Industries, and they may be able to offer their products and services at lower prices or with better terms. This could make it difficult for Chart Industries to compete and grow its market share.


Chart Industries is also exposed to a number of macroeconomic risks. Changes in interest rates or currency exchange rates could have a significant impact on the company's financial results. For example, an increase in interest rates could increase the cost of borrowing for Chart Industries, which could lead to lower profits. Similarly, a depreciation of the U.S. dollar could make Chart Industries' products and services more expensive for customers in other countries, which could lead to lower sales.


Finally, Chart Industries faces a number of operational, regulatory and legal risks. Operational risks include disruptions to the company's supply chain or the failure of its equipment. These could lead to delays in production or delivery, which could damage the company's reputation and lead to lost sales. Regulatory risks include changes in environmental regulations that could increase the company's costs or limit its operations. Legal risks include product liability claims or antitrust lawsuits. These could lead to significant financial liabilities for Chart Industries.


References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Google's Stock Price Set to Soar in the Next 3 Months. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  3. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  4. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  5. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  6. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  7. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.