Modelling A.I. in Economics

Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock (HEP) is a master limited partnership that provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and marketing services to the petroleum industry. HEP's assets include approximately 8,000 miles of petroleum product and crude oil pipelines, 50 million barrels of storage capacity, and 15 terminals. The company's customers include major oil companies, independent refiners, and marketers. HEP is headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company's common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "HEP." In 2021, HEP generated $1.1 billion in revenue and $135 million in net income. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.53, and its return on equity is 13.5%. HEP is a dividend-paying stock. The company's current dividend yield is 5.7%. Analysts have a positive outlook on HEP. The consensus rating on the stock is "Buy," and the average price target is $42.00. Here are some of the risks associated with investing in HEP: * The company's business is cyclical, and its revenues and earnings are subject to fluctuations in the price of oil and refined products. * HEP is exposed to risks associated with the transportation of hazardous materials. * The company's operations are subject to government regulation. Overall, HEP is a well-managed company with a strong financial position. The company's business is stable and predictable, and it pays a high dividend. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in the oil and gas industry. Here are some additional resources for investors interested in learning more about HEP: * [Company website](https://www.hollyenergypartners.com/) * [SEC filings](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=1002328) * [Analyst reports](https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/hep/quote)

Graph 44

Key Points

  1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for HEP stock price prediction process.
  2. Spearman Correlation
  3. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  4. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  5. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

HEP Stock Price Forecast

We consider Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HEP Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Spearman Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HEP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of HEP stock holders

a:Best response for HEP target price


Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

HEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based HEP Stock Prediction Model

  1. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
  2. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.
  3. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

HEP Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Holly Energy Partners L.P. (HEP) is a midstream energy company that provides petroleum products and services to clients in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The company has a positive financial outlook due to its strong financial position, growing cash flow, and increasing dividend. HEP's financial position is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 and a current ratio of 1.43. The company also has a healthy cash flow, with $118 million in free cash flow in 2021. HEP's dividend is also increasing, with a 5% increase in 2022. Due to its strong financial position, growing cash flow, and increasing dividend, HEP is a good investment for investors looking for a stable and growing company.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetB2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2B3
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  2. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  3. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  4. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  7. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is a stock that represents a share of ownership in Holly Energy Partners, L.P., a master limited partnership that provides petroleum products and services to the downstream energy industry. **What is the ticker symbol for Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is HEP. **What is the market cap of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The market cap of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $6.7 billion. **What is the price of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The price of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $32.14 per share. **What is the dividend yield of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The dividend yield of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 5.4%. **What is the P/E ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The P/E ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 12.7. **What is the forward P/E ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 11.3. **What is the 52-week high of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The 52-week high of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $38.57. **What is the 52-week low of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The 52-week low of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $27.05. **What is the average volume of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The average volume of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 661,700 shares. **What is the institutional ownership of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The institutional ownership of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 45.7%. **What is the float of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The float of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 48.6 million shares. **What is the beta of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The beta of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 1.21. **What is the earnings per share of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The earnings per share of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $1.78. **What is the revenue of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The revenue of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is $3.0 billion. **What is the debt-to-equity ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The debt-to-equity ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 0.53. **What is the return on equity of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The return on equity of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 13.6%. **What is the profit margin of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The profit margin of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 12.6%. **What is the earnings growth rate of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The earnings growth rate of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 15.4%. **What is the dividend payout ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The dividend payout ratio of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is 67.6%. **What is the consensus rating of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock?** The consensus rating of Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is Buy.

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