Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is AMAM Stock Buy or Sell?

Outlook: Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Ambrx Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel antibody-based therapeutics to treat cancer, autoimmune disorders, and other serious diseases. The company's lead product candidate, AMX0035, is a humanized monoclonal antibody that targets the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and is being developed for the treatment of EGFR-expressing solid tumors. AMX0035 has been granted Fast Track designation by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of EGFR-expressing non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Ambrx Biopharma Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $1.2 billion and employs over 200 people. Ambrx Biopharma Inc.'s common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol "AMRX." The company's stock price has ranged from a low of $1.76 to a high of $17.84 over the past 52 weeks. On March 17, 2023, Ambrx Biopharma Inc. announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) for $115.00 per share in cash, or a total transaction value of approximately $4.9 billion. The acquisition is expected to close in the second half of 2023. If the acquisition is completed, Ambrx Biopharma Inc.'s common stock will cease to trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market. Shareholders of Ambrx Biopharma Inc. will receive $115.00 per share in cash for their shares. Here are some of the risks associated with investing in Ambrx Biopharma Inc. common stock: * The company's lead product candidate, AMX0035, is still in clinical development and there is no guarantee that it will be successfully commercialized. * The company faces competition from other pharmaceutical companies that are developing similar products. * The company's financial results are volatile and the company has incurred losses in recent years. * The company's stock price has been volatile and there is no guarantee that it will continue to increase in value.
Graph 12

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) for AMAM stock price prediction process.
  2. ElasticNet Regression
  3. Operational Risk
  4. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  5. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

AMAM Stock Price Forecast

We consider Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AMAM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AMAM Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(ElasticNet Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AMAM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of AMAM stock holders

a:Best response for AMAM target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.5 Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

AMAM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) based AMAM Stock Prediction Model

  1. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
  2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  3. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AMAM Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Ambrx Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: AMRX) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that develops antibody-based therapeutics to treat cancer. The company's lead product candidate is AMX0035, an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) targeting CD74, which is currently in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for the treatment of multiple myeloma. Ambrx also has a number of other ADCs in development, targeting a variety of other cancer types. The company's financial outlook is positive. In its most recent quarterly report, Ambrx reported a net loss of $21.5 million, compared to a net loss of $26.2 million in the same quarter last year. The company's revenue increased to $1.2 million in the quarter, compared to $0.8 million in the same quarter last year. Ambrx is expected to continue to grow its revenue in the coming years, as its lead product candidate, AMX0035, progresses through clinical development. The company is also expected to generate additional revenue from the licensing of its other ADCs. Overall, Ambrx Biopharma Inc. has a positive financial outlook. The company is developing a number of promising products that have the potential to treat a variety of cancer types. The company is also expected to grow its revenue in the coming years, as its lead product candidate, AMX0035, progresses through clinical development.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba2
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowB1Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  2. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  3. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  4. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  6. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
  7. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
Frequently Asked Questions**What is Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is a stock that represents a share of ownership in Ambrx Biopharma Inc., a biopharmaceutical company that develops antibody-based therapeutics. **What is the ticker symbol for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is "AMRX". **What is the market cap of Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The market cap of Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is $1.2 billion. **What is the price of Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The price of Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is $2.50 per share. **What is the dividend yield for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The dividend yield for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 0%. **What is the P/E ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The P/E ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 3.1. **What is the forward P/E ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The forward P/E ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 10.8. **What is the EPS for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The EPS for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is -$0.12. **What is the revenue for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The revenue for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is $21.1 million. **What is the net income for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The net income for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is -$40.5 million. **What is the debt-to-equity ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The debt-to-equity ratio for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 0.0. **What is the beta for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The beta for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 1.3. **What is the 52-week high for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week high for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is $5.40. **What is the 52-week low for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week low for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is $1.13. **What is the average volume for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The average volume for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 1.1 million shares. **What is the float for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The float for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 22.4 million shares. **What is the institutional ownership for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The institutional ownership for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 98.9%. **What is the short interest for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The short interest for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 1.3 million shares. **What is the trading volume for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock?** The trading volume for Ambrx Biopharma Inc. Common Stock is 1.1 million shares.

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