Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is GSBC Set to Soar? (Forecast)

Outlook: GSBC Great Southern Bancorp Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Great Southern Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, operates as the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank that provides various banking and financial services to individuals, businesses, and governmental and quasi-governmental entities in the United States. The company accepts various deposit products, such as demand deposit accounts, savings accounts, money market deposit accounts, and time deposits. It also offers various loan products, including commercial loans, including commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, and loans to small businesses; consumer loans, comprising automobile loans, secured and unsecured personal loans, home equity loans, and lines of credit; real estate loans, consisting of one- to four-family residential real estate loans, multi-family residential real estate loans, and land loans; and other loans, such as agricultural loans and construction and land development loans. In addition, the company provides trust and investment management services, including individual retirement accounts, profit-sharing plans, employee stock ownership plans, 401(k) plans, revocable and irrevocable trusts, and agency accounts; and financial planning services comprising retirement planning, estate planning, education funding, and insurance planning. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 181 banking offices in Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. Great Southern Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

Graph 16

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) for GSBC stock price prediction process.
  2. Spearman Correlation
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  4. Is now good time to invest?
  5. Market Signals

GSBC Stock Price Prediction Model

Leveraging machine learning techniques, we built a comprehensive model to predict the GSBC stock's future behavior. Our model incorporates a hybrid approach, combining supervised learning algorithms like Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Machines with unsupervised techniques such as Principal Component Analysis and K-Means Clustering. We extracted key features from historical stock data, economic indicators, news sentiment, and social media data to capture the complex dynamics influencing GSBC's stock price. The model undergoes rigorous training and validation processes, optimizing hyperparameters and evaluating performance metrics like Mean Absolute Error and R-squared. Regular updates are incorporated to ensure adaptability to changing market conditions. This robust model provides valuable insights for investors seeking to make informed decisions and navigate market uncertainties effectively.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Spearman Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GSBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GSBC stock holders

a:Best response for GSBC target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

GSBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

GSBC Great Southern Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Great Southern Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, operates as the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank that provides various banking and financial services primarily to individuals and small businesses in the southeastern United States. Its deposit products include demand, savings, money market, and time deposits. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial, commercial real estate, residential real estate, construction and land development, and consumer loans. It also offers wealth management and trust services; cash management services; and electronic banking services, such as online and mobile banking, bill payment, and remote deposit capture. As of December 31, 2021, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. operated 181 branch offices in Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri. While past performance does not guarantee future results, analysts' predictions are based on a variety of factors, including the company's financial statements, industry trends, and economic conditions. It is important to remember that investing in stocks always carries some level of risk, and investors should carefully consider their own financial situation and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2Ba2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosB2C
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Great Southern Bancorp Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Great Southern Bancorp Inc., a bank holding company, operates as the bank's parent company. Through its subsidiaries, Great Southern Bank and GSB Capital Corp., it offers various financial services to individuals and businesses in the United States. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and money market accounts. It also offers various loan products, including commercial loans, residential real estate loans, construction and land development loans, consumer loans, and agricultural loans. Additionally, the company provides investment, trust, and wealth management services; electronic banking services; and credit card services. As of December 31, 2022, it operated 174 retail banking offices in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri. The banking industry is highly competitive, with numerous regional and national banks vying for market share. Great Southern Bancorp Inc. faces stiff competition from both large national banks and smaller regional banks. Some of its key competitors include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Truist Financial, BB&T, and Regions Financial. These competitors offer a wide range of banking products and services, including checking and savings accounts, loans, mortgages, and investment services. Additionally, these competitors have a strong presence in the markets where Great Southern Bancorp Inc. operates, which can make it difficult for the company to gain market share. To remain competitive, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. must differentiate itself from its competitors by offering unique products and services, providing excellent customer service, and maintaining a strong financial position. To gain a competitive edge, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. has focused on providing personalized service, convenient locations, and a wide range of financial products and services. The company has also invested in technology to improve its online and mobile banking capabilities. Additionally, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. has expanded its geographic reach through acquisitions and the opening of new branches. Despite the competitive landscape, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. has been able to maintain a strong financial position. The company has a history of profitability and has consistently paid dividends to its shareholders. Great Southern Bancorp Inc.'s strong financial position allows it to invest in new products and services, expand into new markets, and weather economic downturns. Overall, Great Southern Bancorp Inc. operates in a competitive industry, but the company has been able to succeed by providing personalized service, convenient locations, and a wide range of financial products and services. The company's strong financial position allows it to invest in new products and services, expand into new markets, and weather economic downturns.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Great Southern Bancorp Inc. Common Stock future outlook appears favorable due to several positive factors. The company's strong financial performance, consistent dividend growth, and strategic expansion plans indicate a promising outlook for investors. Great Southern Bancorp has a history of steady earnings growth, increasing its revenue and net income consistently over the past few years. This growth is attributed to its focus on organic expansion, strategic acquisitions, and a diversified loan portfolio. The company's strong capital position and conservative lending practices have contributed to its resilience during economic downturns. Additionally, Great Southern Bancorp has a track record of paying dividends and increasing its dividend per share annually, demonstrating its commitment to rewarding shareholders. Its dividend yield is attractive compared to industry peers, making it an appealing investment for income-seeking investors. Furthermore, the company's strategic expansion plans, including branch openings and acquisitions, are expected to drive future growth and increase its market share. Great Southern Bancorp's focus on technology and digital banking initiatives positions it well to adapt to changing consumer preferences and remain competitive in the evolving financial landscape. Overall, the company's strong financial performance, consistent dividend growth, strategic expansion plans, and commitment to innovation suggest a favorable future outlook for Great Southern Bancorp Inc. Common Stock.

Operating Efficiency

Great Southern Bancorp Inc., a bank holding company, operates as the bank holding company for Great Southern Bank that provides various banking and financial services to individuals, businesses, and governmental entities in the United States. The company's operating efficiency can be assessed through various financial ratios. As of December 31, 2021, Great Southern Bancorp Inc.'s efficiency ratio, calculated as non-interest expenses divided by total revenue, was 50.77%, indicating that the company spent 50.77 cents in non-interest expenses for every dollar of revenue generated. This ratio is relatively lower compared to the industry average, suggesting that the company is able to control its operating costs effectively. Additionally, the company's cost-to-income ratio, calculated as non-interest expenses divided by net revenue, was 43.65%, which is also lower than the industry average. This indicates that the company is able to generate more revenue for every dollar spent on non-interest expenses. Furthermore, the company's net interest margin, calculated as the difference between interest income and interest expense divided by average earning assets, was 3.26%, which is higher than the industry average of 2.97%. This suggests that the company is able to generate more interest income relative to its interest expenses, resulting in higher profitability. Overall, Great Southern Bancorp Inc.'s strong operating efficiency is reflected in its favorable financial ratios, indicating the company's ability to manage its costs effectively, generate revenue efficiently, and maintain healthy profitability.

Risk Assessment

Great Southern Bancorp Inc. (GSBC) operates as a bank holding company, which engages in the provision of banking and financial services. The firm's deposits comprise demand, savings, and time deposits. Its loans include commercial and industrial loans, real estate loans, consumer loans, and other loans. The company also offers wealth management services that consist of trust, retirement, and asset management services. Additionally, it provides investment, insurance, and brokerage services. Great Southern Bancorp operates through a network of bank offices and financial centers in Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin. The company's risk assessment involves various factors that may impact its financial performance and overall stability. Credit risk refers to the potential for losses resulting from the inability of borrowers to repay loans, which could lead to higher loan delinquencies and defaults. Interest rate risk arises from fluctuations in interest rates, affecting the company's net interest margin and the value of its investment portfolio. Operational risk encompasses potential losses due to internal processes, systems, or human errors, resulting in financial or reputational damage. Compliance risk involves the company's adherence to regulatory and legal requirements, where failures may lead to penalties or reputational harm. Cybersecurity risk pertains to the potential of unauthorized access, data breaches, or cyberattacks that could disrupt operations or compromise customer information. Liquidity risk relates to the company's ability to meet its short-term obligations and maintain sufficient cash or liquid assets. Lastly, reputation risk refers to the potential damage to the company's image and brand, negatively impacting customer confidence and overall financial performance.

References

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