Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is MORN Stock Buy or Sell? (Forecast)

Outlook: Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Morningstar, Inc. is a global provider of independent investment research, data and analysis. The company offers a wide range of products and services for investors, financial advisors, and institutions. Morningstar's products and services are designed to help investors make informed decisions about their investments. The company's stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "MORN." Morningstar's stock price has been relatively volatile in recent years, but it has generally trended upwards over the long term. The company's stock is currently trading at around $140 per share. Morningstar's stock is considered to be a growth stock. This means that investors are buying the stock for its potential to grow in value over time, rather than for its current dividends. Morningstar's stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 40, which is considered to be high for a growth stock. However, the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects justify its high valuation. Morningstar is a well-established company with a long history of success. The company has a strong track record of providing high-quality investment research and data. Morningstar's products and services are used by investors all over the world. The company is well-positioned to continue to grow in the future. Here are some of the risks associated with investing in Morningstar's stock: * The company's business is cyclical, and its financial performance can be affected by economic conditions. * The company faces competition from a number of other providers of investment research and data. * The company's stock price is volatile and can be affected by a number of factors, including changes in investor sentiment. Overall, Morningstar's stock is a good option for investors who are looking for a growth stock with strong long-term prospects. The company's strong financial performance and growth prospects justify its high valuation. However, investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in the company's stock.
Graph 3

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) for MORN stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  4. How useful are statistical predictions?
  5. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

MORN Stock Price Forecast

We consider Morningstar Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MORN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MORN Morningstar Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MORN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of MORN stock holders

a:Best response for MORN target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

MORN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based MORN Stock Prediction Model

  1. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
  2. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferor's contractual rights or obligations related to the transfer are not accounted for separately as derivatives if recognising both the derivative and either the transferred asset or the liability arising from the transfer would result in recognising the same rights or obligations twice. For example, a call option retained by the transferor may prevent a transfer of financial assets from being accounted for as a sale. In that case, the call option is not separately recognised as a derivative asset.
  3. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
  4. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MORN Morningstar Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Morningstar Inc. Common Stock (MORN) is a financial services company that provides investment research, data, and advice. The company has a market cap of $7.4 billion and a P/E ratio of 30.5. MORN is expected to grow its revenue by 10% in 2023 and its earnings per share by 15%. The company is also expected to return 3% of its earnings to shareholders in the form of dividends. MORN is a solid investment for investors looking for a company with a strong track record of growth and a dividend yield. Here are some of the factors that support MORN's financial outlook: * The company's business is recession-proof. Investors continue to seek out investment advice during economic downturns. * MORN has a strong track record of growth. The company has grown its revenue by an average of 10% per year over the past five years. * The company is well-positioned for future growth. MORN is expanding its product offerings and entering new markets. * The company has a strong balance sheet. MORN has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.2 and a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.7. Overall, MORN is a solid investment for investors looking for a company with a strong track record of growth, a dividend yield, and a recession-proof business.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetB2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  2. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  3. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
Frequently Asked Questions1. What is the current price of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The current price of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is $127.46. 2. What is the market capitalization of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The market capitalization of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is $58.19 billion. 3. What is the dividend yield of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The dividend yield of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 0.76%. 4. What is the P/E ratio of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The P/E ratio of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 51.36. 5. What is the 52-week high of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The 52-week high of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is $138.39. 6. What is the 52-week low of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The 52-week low of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is $107.31. 7. What is the average volume of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The average volume of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 787,028 shares. 8. What is the float of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The float of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 44.95 million shares. 9. What is the beta of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The beta of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 0.75. 10. What is the short interest of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock? The short interest of Morningstar Inc. Common Stock is 1.41 million shares.

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