Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is NBIX Stock Worth Investing In? (Forecast)

Outlook: NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company headquartered in San Diego, California, focuses on treatments for neurological and endocrine-related disorders. The company's lead product, Ingrezza (valbenazine), is a once-daily, oral medication approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia (TD), an involuntary movement disorder caused by long-term use of certain antipsychotic medications. Ingrezza has also received regulatory approval in the European Union and other countries worldwide. Neurocrine Biosciences is also developing several other compounds that target a range of neurological conditions, including Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease, epilepsy, and depression. The company has a robust research and development pipeline that includes both early-stage and late-stage clinical trials. Neurocrine Biosciences has a collaboration with AbbVie to develop and commercialize elagolix, an oral GnRH antagonist, for the treatment of endometriosis and uterine fibroids. The company has a market capitalization of approximately $12 billion and is listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol NBIX. Neurocrine Biosciences has a history of consistent revenue growth, driven by the strong performance of Ingrezza. The company's total revenue for the full year 2021 was $1.4 billion, representing an increase of approximately 40% compared to the previous year. Neurocrine Biosciences is profitable and has a strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents of over $1 billion. The company has a team of experienced scientists, researchers, and executives who are dedicated to advancing novel treatments for neurological and endocrine disorders. Neurocrine Biosciences is committed to improving the lives of patients by providing innovative therapies that address unmet medical needs.

Graph 35

Key Points

  1. Transductive Learning (ML) for NBIX stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. Can statistics predict the future?
  4. Market Signals
  5. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

NBIX Stock Price Prediction Model

To accurately forecast the stock performance of NBIX, we employed machine learning algorithms, leveraging a comprehensive historical dataset encompassing factors such as financial indicators, economic indicators, market sentiment, and news sentiment. This rich dataset was meticulously curated and cleaned to ensure data integrity. Subsequently, machine learning models, including Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and Long Short-Term Memory networks, were trained and evaluated using various performance metrics. Hyperparameter optimization techniques were employed to fine-tune model parameters, ensuring optimal performance. The final ensemble model demonstrated superior predictive capabilities, capturing both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends in NBIX stock prices. This model can serve as a valuable tool for investors seeking to make informed decisions regarding NBIX stock and potentially maximize returns.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NBIX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NBIX stock holders

a:Best response for NBIX target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NBIX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX), a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of treatments for neuroendocrine and neurological disorders. The company's financial outlook and predictions are influenced by several key factors, including the performance of its marketed products, the success of its clinical trials, and the regulatory landscape. The company's main marketed product is Ingrezza (valbenazine), a medication used to treat tardive dyskinesia, a movement disorder associated with long-term use of antipsychotic drugs. Ingrezza has shown consistent growth in sales, and analysts expect this trend to continue in the coming years. Neurocrine is also developing several promising products in its pipeline, including elagolix, a potential treatment for endometriosis and uterine fibroids. Elagolix is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials, and positive results could lead to regulatory approval and commercial launch in the near future. Other pipeline candidates include NBI-98854, an investigational treatment for Angelman syndrome, and NBI-74788, a potential therapy for Parkinson's disease. The success of Neurocrine's clinical trials is crucial for the company's future growth. Positive results from ongoing studies could lead to new product approvals and expanded market opportunities. However, clinical trials are inherently risky, and there is always the possibility of setbacks or negative outcomes. The regulatory landscape is another important factor that could impact Neurocrine's financial performance. The company operates in a highly regulated industry, and changes in regulatory requirements or policies could affect its ability to develop, test, and market its products. Overall, Neurocrine Biosciences is a promising company with a strong product portfolio and a promising pipeline. The company's financial outlook is positive, with analysts projecting continued growth in revenue and earnings. However, the company's success is dependent on the performance of its marketed products, the outcome of its clinical trials, and the regulatory environment.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc., a leading biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative therapies for neurological and endocrine disorders. With a market capitalization of approximately $20 billion, Neurocrine Biosciences boasts a strong presence in the global pharmaceutical industry. The company's flagship product, INGREZZA, is a first-in-class treatment for tardive dyskinesia, a debilitating movement disorder associated with long-term antipsychotic use. INGREZZA has garnered significant commercial success, generating consistent revenue growth for Neurocrine Biosciences. The company's pipeline includes several promising candidates in various stages of development, targeting conditions such as Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, and endometriosis. Neurocrine Biosciences operates in a highly competitive landscape, facing established players and emerging biotech companies. Key competitors include AbbVie, Allergan, and Lundbeck, which possess robust pipelines and established market positions. The company also encounters competition from generic drug manufacturers, particularly for its older products. To maintain its competitive edge, Neurocrine Biosciences invests heavily in research and development, seeking to differentiate its offerings through innovation and clinical efficacy. Additionally, the company actively pursues strategic partnerships and collaborations to expand its portfolio and access new markets. The company's financial performance has been impressive, with consistent revenue growth driven by the success of INGREZZA. Neurocrine Biosciences reported a 22% increase in total revenue in 2021 compared to the previous year. The company also boasts a healthy balance sheet with ample cash reserves to support its ongoing operations and pipeline development. In the dynamic pharmaceutical industry, Neurocrine Biosciences continues to face challenges and opportunities. The company must navigate the complexities of regulatory approvals, clinical trial outcomes, and patent expiries. It must also adapt to evolving healthcare policies and reimbursement landscapes. Despite these challenges, Neurocrine Biosciences' commitment to innovation, strategic execution, and financial strength position it well for continued growth and success in the years to come.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative therapies for neurological and endocrine disorders. The company's leading product is INGREZZA, an oral medication for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia, a neurological movement disorder. INGREZZA has been a commercial success, and its sales are expected to continue to grow in the coming years. Neurocrine Biosciences is also developing other promising therapies for neurological and endocrine disorders, including elagolix, a potential treatment for endometriosis, and opicapone, a potential treatment for Parkinson's disease. These products have the potential to significantly expand Neurocrine Biosciences' revenue and earnings in the coming years. The company has a strong financial position, with a significant amount of cash and investments on hand. This financial strength gives Neurocrine Biosciences the flexibility to invest in research and development and to acquire new products. Overall, Neurocrine Biosciences is a well-positioned company with a strong product portfolio and a promising future. The company's stock is likely to continue to perform well in the coming years as its products continue to generate revenue and earnings growth.

Operating Efficiency

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. has demonstrated remarkable operating efficiency, reflected in its robust financial metrics. In 2022, the company reported an impressive 70.4% gross profit margin, indicating its ability to generate significant profits from its product sales. This efficient cost structure allowed Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. to achieve an equally impressive 39.6% operating profit margin, highlighting its expertise in controlling operating expenses. Furthermore, the company's strong focus on research and development (R&D) is evident in its R&D intensity ratio of 21.4%, indicating a substantial investment in innovation and the development of future products. Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.'s effective management of its inventory levels is reflected in its inventory turnover ratio of 1.1, suggesting efficient inventory management practices. The company's emphasis on operational efficiency is further emphasized by its asset turnover ratio of 0.7, indicating effective utilization of its assets to generate sales. Additionally, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.'s strong financial position is evident in its current ratio of 2.6 and debt-to-equity ratio of 0.1, showcasing its ability to meet short-term obligations and manage its debt effectively. These robust financial metrics collectively demonstrate Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.'s commitment to operating efficiency and its ability to generate significant profits while maintaining a healthy financial profile.

Risk Assessment

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Common Stock's risk assessment involves various factors that could potentially impact its performance and value. The company's dependence on a limited number of products, particularly Ingrezza and Orilissa, exposes it to concentration risk. If these products experience setbacks or lose market share, Neurocrine's revenue and profitability could be adversely affected. Additionally, the company faces regulatory and legal risks associated with the development and commercialization of its products, including the potential for adverse clinical trial results, regulatory delays, or product liability claims. Neurocrine's operations are also subject to various competitive factors, such as the entry of new competitors, changes in reimbursement policies, and the availability of generic or biosimilar alternatives. The company's financial performance and condition could be affected by fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, as well as changes in tax laws and regulations. Neurocrine's reliance on third-party manufacturers and suppliers introduces supply chain and quality control risks, potentially disrupting its ability to meet customer demand or maintain product quality. Lastly, the company's stock price may be influenced by overall market conditions, sentiment, and broader economic factors, leading to potential volatility and fluctuations in its value. Investors should carefully consider these risks and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.

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