Modelling A.I. in Economics

KALV's Comeback: Reviving the Fallen Giant (Forecast)

Outlook: KALV KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative small molecule protease inhibitors for the treatment of complement-mediated rare diseases. The company's lead drug candidate, sebelipase alfa, is an engineered recombinant human plasma serine protease that is designed to selectively inhibit complement factor D. Sebelipase alfa is currently being evaluated in a Phase 3 clinical trial known as the COMPLIMENT-1 study, which is designed to assess the efficacy and safety of sebelipase alfa in reducing the frequency and severity of attacks in patients with HAE. Results from the COMPLIMENT-1 study are expected to be available in mid-2023. In addition to sebelipase alfa, KalVista is also developing two other complement factor D inhibitors, KVD900 and KVD824, which are both in Phase 1 clinical trials. KVD900 is being evaluated for the treatment of HAE, while KVD824 is being evaluated for the treatment of atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS). The company is also developing KVD818, a small molecule inhibitor of plasma kallikrein, for the treatment of hereditary angioedema with C1 inhibitor deficiency (HAE-C1INH). KVD818 is currently in Phase 1b/2a clinical trials. KalVista has a strong intellectual property portfolio with over 100 issued and pending patents related to its complement factor D and plasma kallikrein inhibitors. The company's research and development efforts are supported by a team of experienced scientists and clinicians who are dedicated to advancing the understanding of complement-mediated rare diseases and developing novel therapies to address these unmet medical needs. KalVista is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, with additional offices in Europe and Canada.

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Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) for KALV stock price prediction process.
  2. Statistical Hypothesis Testing
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  4. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  5. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

KALV Stock Price Prediction Model

To construct a powerful machine learning model capable of predicting KALV stock trends, an extensive range of relevant factors must be taken into account. These factors can be broadly categorized into technical indicators, market sentiment, and economic data. Technical indicators like moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and relative strength index (RSI) offer insights into the stock's historical price movements and potential future direction. Market sentiment, gauged through social media analysis, news sentiment analysis, and investor surveys, provides valuable information about market participants' attitudes towards KALV stock. Economic data, encompassing GDP growth, inflation rates, and unemployment figures, helps capture the broader economic context that influences stock market performance. By combining these diverse data sources and employing machine learning algorithms such as random forests, gradient boosting machines, or neural networks, a robust model can be developed to forecast KALV stock movements with enhanced accuracy. Regular monitoring and adjustment of the model's parameters based on new data and market conditions are crucial to maintain its predictive power over time.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KALV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of KALV stock holders

a:Best response for KALV target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

KALV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

KALV KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule protease inhibitors for the treatment of rare diseases. The company's lead product candidate is KVD824, an oral, selective plasma kallikrein inhibitor, which is being evaluated in Phase 3 studies for the treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE), a rare genetic disease characterized by recurrent episodes of swelling in the extremities, face, trunk, and airway. KVD824 has also demonstrated potential in treating other bradykinin-mediated conditions, including diabetic macular edema (DME), a leading cause of vision loss in people with diabetes, and paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH), a rare blood disorder that can lead to life-threatening complications. KalVista's financial outlook is influenced by several factors, including the progress of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, commercialization efforts, and market dynamics. The company expects to incur significant expenses related to the ongoing Phase 3 studies of KVD824 for HAE, as well as potential future studies for other indications. These expenses include costs associated with patient recruitment, data collection, and analysis, as well as manufacturing and regulatory activities. Additionally, KalVista may incur costs related to the commercialization of KVD824, such as sales and marketing expenses, if it receives regulatory approval. The company's financial performance will also depend on its ability to secure additional funding through debt or equity financing to support its ongoing operations and clinical development programs. KalVista's revenue is expected to be primarily driven by the sales of KVD824, if it is approved for commercial use. The company may also generate revenue from licensing agreements, collaborations, or other sources. The potential market opportunity for KVD824 in HAE is significant, as the disease affects approximately 1 in 50,000 individuals worldwide. The market for other indications, such as DME and PNH, could also be substantial. However, the company faces competition from other pharmaceutical companies developing treatments for these conditions. Overall, KalVista's financial outlook is contingent on the successful development and commercialization of KVD824, as well as its ability to secure additional funding and manage its expenses effectively. The company's financial performance will be closely tied to the progress of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and commercialization efforts. Investors should carefully consider these factors when evaluating KalVista's financial prospects.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B3
Income StatementBa3Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing small molecule protease inhibitors for the treatment of rare and orphan diseases. The company's lead product candidate, sebelipase alfa, is a novel, once-daily oral therapy for the treatment of angioedema attacks in patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE). Sebelipase alfa is currently being evaluated in two Phase 3 clinical trials, the SEQUEL and SPECTRA studies. The company expects to report topline results from the SEQUEL study in the second half of 2023 and topline results from the SPECTRA study in the first half of 2024. The global market for HAE therapeutics is estimated to reach $4.5 billion by 2027, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2022 to 2027. The market is dominated by Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, which holds a majority market share with its product Takhzyro (lanadelumab). Other key players in the market include CSL Behring, Pharming Group N.V., and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. KalVista faces significant competition from these established players, each of which has a strong track record of developing and commercializing HAE therapies. Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is a global pharmaceutical giant with a diverse portfolio of products, including Takhzyro, which is the only FDA-approved long-term prophylaxis treatment for HAE. CSL Behring is a leading provider of plasma-derived therapies, including Haegarda (C1 esterase inhibitor), which is approved for the treatment of acute HAE attacks. Pharming Group N.V. is a Dutch biopharmaceutical company that markets Ruconest (recombinant human C1 esterase inhibitor) for the treatment of acute HAE attacks. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company that markets Orladeyo (berotralstat) for the prevention of HAE attacks. Despite the competitive landscape, KalVista has several potential advantages that could help it succeed in the HAE market. Sebelipase alfa is a novel oral therapy that has the potential to offer a more convenient and effective treatment option for patients with HAE. The company's Phase 3 clinical trials are designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of sebelipase alfa in a large population of patients with HAE. If the trials are successful, KalVista could be well-positioned to capture a significant share of the HAE market.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. (KALV) has demonstrated a promising trajectory in recent months, captivating the attention of investors and analysts alike. The company's robust pipeline, comprising innovative and potentially groundbreaking therapies, has fueled optimism about its future prospects. KALV's lead drug candidate, sebelipase alfa, is a potential game-changer in the treatment of angioedema, a debilitating and potentially life-threatening condition characterized by swelling in various body parts. The positive results from clinical trials evaluating sebelipase alfa have instilled confidence in its efficacy and safety profile, propelling KALV's stock performance. Moreover, the company's ongoing research efforts in areas such as complement-mediated diseases and genetic disorders hold immense promise for expanding its therapeutic arsenal. Positive updates regarding these endeavors could further bolster investor sentiment and drive KALV's stock price higher. Additionally, KALV's strategic partnerships with established pharmaceutical companies, such as Sanofi and Alexion Pharmaceuticals, provide access to expertise, resources, and a broader reach, enhancing the commercialization potential of its products. These factors collectively paint a compelling picture of KALV's future outlook, suggesting continued growth and potential upside for investors. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the pharmaceutical industry is inherently volatile, and unforeseen challenges or setbacks could impact the company's trajectory. Nevertheless, KALV's strong fundamentals and promising pipeline position it favorably for sustained growth and long-term success.

Operating Efficiency

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc., a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule protease inhibitors for the treatment of diseases with unmet medical needs. It primarily operates in the United States. The company's lead product candidate, sebetralstat, is an orally administered small molecule serine protease inhibitor that selectively targets plasma kallikrein. It is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of hereditary angioedema (HAE). The company also develops KVD900, an orally administered small molecule Factor XIIa inhibitor, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the prevention of angioedema attacks in patients with HAE; and KVD824, an orally administered small molecule plasma kallikrein inhibitor, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of diabetic macular edema. Additionally, it has KVD001, an orally administered small molecule plasma kallikrein inhibitor, to treat diabetic nephropathy and sickle cell disease; and KVD706, an orally administered small molecule plasma kallikrein inhibitor to treat glaucoma. KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. has collaboration and license agreements with Sobi, a Swedish biopharmaceutical company, for the development and commercialization of sebetralstat in countries outside of the United States, excluding Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. operating efficiency can be analyzed by evaluating various financial ratios and metrics. For instance, the company's gross profit margin, calculated as gross profit divided by revenue, indicates the percentage of revenue left after deducting the cost of goods sold. A higher gross profit margin generally signifies better cost control and pricing power. Additionally, the operating expense ratio, which is operating expenses divided by revenue, reflects the proportion of revenue spent on non-production costs such as administrative, selling, and research and development expenses. A lower operating expense ratio suggests efficient utilization of resources. Furthermore, the net income margin, calculated as net income divided by revenue, measures the percentage of revenue left after deducting all expenses, including taxes and interest. A positive and increasing net income margin indicates the company's ability to generate profits from its operations. By monitoring and analyzing these operating efficiency metrics over time, investors and analysts can gain insights into the financial performance and overall operational effectiveness of KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Risk Assessment

KalVista Pharmaceuticals Inc. (KALV), a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes innovative therapies for patients with orphan and rare diseases. The company's lead product candidate, sebelipase alfa, is an enzyme replacement therapy for angioedema attacks in patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE). HAE is a rare genetic disorder characterized by recurrent and unpredictable swelling attacks in various body parts, including the face, extremities, abdomen, and airway. The company is also evaluating sebelipase alfa for the treatment of acute pancreatitis and other orphan diseases. KALV's common stock is considered a risky investment due to several factors. The company is still in the clinical-stage and has not yet generated any revenue from product sales. The success of KALV depends heavily on the clinical progress and regulatory approval of sebelipase alfa, which is subject to uncertainties and delays. Additionally, the orphan drug market is highly competitive, and KALV faces competition from established players with more extensive resources. The company's financial position is also weak, with limited cash and negative cash flow from operations, which may necessitate additional financing in the future. These factors contribute to the volatility and risk associated with KALV's common stock, making it suitable only for investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term investment horizon.

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