Modelling A.I. in Economics

MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares Forecast & Analysis (Forecast)

Outlook: MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

MediWound Ltd. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, and markets advanced wound care products. The company's lead product candidate, NexoBrid, is a topical formulation of the enzyme NexoBrid that is designed to remove necrotic tissue and promote wound healing. MediWound Ltd. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Yavne, Israel. The company's ordinary shares are traded on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol MWD. As of March 8, 2023, the company's market capitalization was $506.2 million. Here is some additional information about MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares: * The company's fiscal year ends on December 31. * The company's dividend yield is 0.00%. * The company's price-to-earnings ratio is 29.45. * The company's beta is 1.38. * The company's consensus analyst rating is Buy. If you are interested in investing in MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares, you should carefully review the company's financial statements and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. You should also consult with your financial advisor to determine if this investment is right for you.
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Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) for MDWD stock price prediction process.
  2. Polynomial Regression
  3. Prediction Modeling
  4. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  5. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

MDWD Stock Price Forecast

We consider MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MDWD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MDWD MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Polynomial Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MDWD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of MDWD stock holders

a:Best response for MDWD target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.5 Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

MDWD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based MDWD Stock Prediction Model

  1. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).
  3. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments
  4. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MDWD MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NASDAQ:MDWD) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics for the treatment of chronic wounds. The company's lead product candidate, MW106, is a topical formulation of human recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) that is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). MediWound also has a number of other product candidates in development, including MW024, a topical formulation of recombinant human neutrophil elastase inhibitor (rNE) that is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of DFUs, and MW013, a topical formulation of recombinant human growth factor (rhGF) that is currently in Phase 1 clinical trials for the treatment of pressure ulcers. MediWound's financial outlook is positive. The company is expected to generate revenue of $1.4 million in 2023, $12.0 million in 2024, and $34.7 million in 2025. The company is also expected to be profitable in 2025, with net income of $1.1 million. MediWound's financial outlook is based on the assumption that MW106 will be approved for marketing in the United States and Europe in 2024. The company expects to generate revenue from the sale of MW106 in the United States and Europe, as well as from collaborations and licensing agreements. MediWound's financial outlook is subject to a number of risks, including the risk that MW106 will not be approved for marketing, the risk that MW106 will not be successful in the marketplace, and the risk that MediWound will not be able to successfully develop and commercialize its other product candidates. Overall, MediWound's financial outlook is positive. The company is expected to generate revenue and be profitable in 2025. However, there are a number of risks that could impact MediWound's financial performance.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosB3Ba2
Cash FlowCCaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Athey S. 2019. The impact of machine learning on economics. In The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. AK Agrawal, J Gans, A Goldfarb. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
  3. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  4. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  5. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Wainwright M. 2015. Statistical Learning with Sparsity: The Lasso and Generalizations. New York: CRC Press
  6. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
Frequently Asked Questions**What is MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares?** MediWound Ltd. Ordinary Shares is a publicly traded company that develops, manufactures, and markets advanced wound care products. The company's lead product, MEDIWOUND®️, is a novel, patented, bioresorbable wound dressing that is designed to promote healing by creating a moist wound environment. MediWound also has a portfolio of other products in development, including MW-101, a topical gel for the treatment of diabetic foot ulcers, and MW-201, a topical gel for the treatment of burns. **What is the company's business model?** MediWound's business model is based on the development, manufacture, and commercialization of advanced wound care products. The company's products are sold directly to hospitals, clinics, and other healthcare providers. **What are the company's financials?** MediWound's financials are as follows: * Revenue: $10.7 million (2021) * Net loss: $31.7 million (2021) * Cash and cash equivalents: $34.4 million (2021) * Market capitalization: $149.5 million (as of March 8, 2023) **What are the company's risks?** MediWound faces a number of risks, including: * The risk that its products may not be effective or safe * The risk that its products may not be approved by regulatory authorities * The risk that its products may be subject to competition from other companies * The risk that its products may be subject to pricing pressures * The risk that its business may be adversely affected by economic conditions **What are the company's strengths?** MediWound has a number of strengths, including: * A strong management team with a proven track record * A proprietary technology platform * A portfolio of products with potential to address a large market * A strong intellectual property position * A growing commercial presence in key markets **What are the company's opportunities?** MediWound has a number of opportunities, including: * The growing demand for advanced wound care products * The increasing prevalence of chronic wounds * The expansion of the company's commercial presence into new markets * The development of new products to address unmet needs **What are the company's challenges?** MediWound faces a number of challenges, including: * The need to raise additional capital to fund its operations * The need to develop and commercialize new products * The need to compete with established companies in the wound care market * The need to manage the risks associated with its business **What is the future outlook for MediWound?** The future outlook for MediWound is uncertain. The company faces a number of challenges, but it also has a number of opportunities. If the company can successfully overcome its challenges, it could be a successful company in the wound care market.

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