Modelling A.I. in Economics

MQY Stock Price Prediction

Outlook: Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the MQY stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 28

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) for MQY stock price prediction process.
  2. Factor
  3. Nash Equilibria
  4. Stock Rating
  5. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

MQY Stock Price Forecast

We consider Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of MQY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MQY Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Factor)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MQY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of MQY stock holders

a:Best response for MQY target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 In statistics, a factor is a variable that can influence the value of another variable. Factors can be categorical or continuous. Categorical factors have a limited number of possible values, such as gender (male or female) or blood type (A, B, AB, or O). Continuous factors can have an infinite number of possible values, such as height or weight. Factors can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable. For example, a study might find that there is a relationship between gender and height. In this case, gender would be the independent variable, height would be the dependent variable, and the factor would be gender.6,7

 

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How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

MQY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) based MQY Stock Prediction Model

  1. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee
  2. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.
  3. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  4. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MQY Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementB3Ba1
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  2. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  3. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  5. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  6. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  7. Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is MQY stock expected to rise?
A: MQY stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor and it is concluded that dominant strategy for MQY stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is MQY stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend MQY Stock.
Q: Is Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Blackrock MuniYield Quality Fund Inc. Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MQY stock?
A: The consensus rating for MQY is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for MQY stock?
A: MQY target price forecast: Speculative Trend

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