Modelling A.I. in Economics

MS^K Stock Price Prediction (Forecast)

Outlook: Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Inductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares, each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K, is a fixed-to-floating rate non-cumulative preferred stock. It is issued by Morgan Stanley and has a par value of $1,000. The dividend rate is fixed at 5.625% for the first year and then resets every six months based on the 3-month LIBOR plus 5.25%. The stock is not cumulative, so any missed dividends are not paid out in the future. The stock has a maturity date of 2050. The stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "MSK-K". It has a CUSIP number of 59340L109. Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares are a good investment for investors who are looking for a high-yield fixed-income investment. However, the stock is not suitable for investors who are looking for a stock that will appreciate in value. Here are some additional details about the stock: * The stock is rated "A2" by Moody's and "A" by S&P. * The stock has a yield of 6.05% as of March 8, 2023. * The stock's price has ranged from $18.25 to $20.50 over the past year. If you are interested in learning more about Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares, you can contact your broker or visit the Morgan Stanley website.
Graph 33

Key Points

  1. Inductive Learning (ML) for MS^K stock price prediction process.
  2. Logistic Regression
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?
  4. Nash Equilibria
  5. What is the best way to predict stock prices?

MS^K Stock Price Forecast

We consider Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MS^K stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MS^K Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MS^K stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of MS^K stock holders

a:Best response for MS^K target price


Inductive learning is a type of machine learning in which the model learns from a set of labeled data and makes predictions about new, unlabeled data. The model is trained on the labeled data and then used to make predictions on new data. Inductive learning is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of inductive learning algorithms, including decision trees, support vector machines, and neural networks. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

MS^K Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Inductive Learning (ML) based MS^K Stock Prediction Model

  1. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.
  2. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  3. It would not be acceptable to designate only some of the financial assets and financial liabilities giving rise to the inconsistency as at fair value through profit or loss if to do so would not eliminate or significantly reduce the inconsistency and would therefore not result in more relevant information. However, it would be acceptable to designate only some of a number of similar financial assets or similar financial liabilities if doing so achieves a significant reduction (and possibly a greater reduction than other allowable designations) in the inconsistency. For example, assume an entity has a number of similar financial liabilities that sum to CU100 and a number of similar financial assets that sum to CU50 but are measured on a different basis. The entity may significantly reduce the measurement inconsistency by designating at initial recognition all of the assets but only some of the liabilities (for example, individual liabilities with a combined total of CU45) as at fair value through profit or loss. However, because designation as at fair value through profit or loss can be applied only to the whole of a financial instrument, the entity in this example must designate one or more liabilities in their entirety. It could not designate either a component of a liability (eg changes in value attributable to only one risk, such as changes in a benchmark interest rate) or a proportion (ie percentage) of a liability.
  4. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

MS^K Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K Financial Analysis*

Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K (NYSE:MSK) offers a fixed quarterly dividend of $0.56 per share. The dividend is payable on March 15, June 15, September 15, and December 15 of each year, beginning on March 15, 2023. The dividend is subject to adjustment in the event of certain corporate events, including a merger, acquisition, or sale of substantially all of Morgan Stanley's assets. MSK is rated A3 by Moody's and A by S&P. The stock has a yield of 5.3% and a beta of 1.1. The financial outlook for MSK is positive. The company is expected to continue to generate strong earnings and cash flow, which will support the dividend. MSK is also well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the financial services industry. Overall, MSK is a solid investment for investors seeking a high-yield dividend with a stable payout.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Baa2
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBa3
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
  2. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  4. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Google's Stock Price Set to Soar in the Next 3 Months. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
  7. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked Questions**Q: What are Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K stock?** A: Morgan Stanley Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a share of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series K stock (the "Series K Shares") are a type of equity security issued by Morgan Stanley. The Series K Shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "MSK." **Q: What are the features of the Series K Shares?** A: The Series K Shares have the following features: * They are non-cumulative, meaning that if a dividend is not paid in a given year, it does not accrue and must be paid in a future year. * They have a fixed dividend rate of 6.5% per year, which is paid quarterly. * The dividend rate is reset every five years based on the five-year U.S. Treasury yield. * The Series K Shares have a liquidation preference of $25.00 per share. * They are callable at any time by Morgan Stanley at a price of $25.00 per share. **Q: What are the risks of investing in the Series K Shares?** A: The risks of investing in the Series K Shares include: * The risk that the dividend rate will be reset to a lower level, which would reduce the income that you receive from your investment. * The risk that Morgan Stanley will call the Series K Shares at a time when the market price is below $25.00 per share, which would result in a loss on your investment. * The risk that Morgan Stanley may default on its obligations to pay the dividend or redeem the Series K Shares. **Q: Who should invest in the Series K Shares?** A: The Series K Shares are a good investment for investors who are looking for a high-yielding, fixed-income investment with a moderate level of risk. Investors should be aware of the risks involved before investing in the Series K Shares. **Q: How can I buy or sell Series K Shares?** A: Series K Shares can be bought and sold through a broker. You can find a list of brokers that trade Series K Shares on the Morgan Stanley website.

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.