Modelling A.I. in Economics

NGMS: Next Generation Marvel Stock or Milepost of Market Misery? (Forecast)

Outlook: NGMS NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares are equity securities traded publicly on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the ticker symbol "NGMS." The company is a leading provider of iLottery solutions to lottery operators worldwide. Founded in 2010, NeoGames has grown rapidly and now operates in countries such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The company's platform offers a comprehensive suite of lottery games, including scratch cards, draw games, and instant win games, which can be accessed both online and through mobile devices. NeoGames also develops and provides managed services, player engagement tools, and lottery consulting services to its clients. The company generates revenue from a combination of licensing fees, revenue sharing agreements, and professional services fees. NeoGames has a strong financial position, with consistent revenue growth and profitability. The company's ordinary shares have demonstrated a history of positive performance, making them an attractive investment for those seeking exposure to the growing iLottery sector. The shares are included in several stock market indices, including the Russell 2000 Index and the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, highlighting the company's position as a prominent player in its industry. Overall, NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares represent an opportunity for investors to participate in the expansion of the iLottery market, driven by the increasing popularity of online and mobile gaming.

Graph 22

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) for NGMS stock price prediction process.
  2. Multiple Regression
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  4. Market Risk
  5. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

NGMS Stock Price Prediction Model

A machine learning model for NGMS stock prediction can be developed using a supervised learning approach. The model can use historical data on various factors that influence stock prices, such as financial performance, economic conditions, and market sentiment, to learn the relationship between these factors and stock prices. Once the model is trained, it can be used to predict future stock prices based on new data. To improve the accuracy of the model, various machine learning algorithms and techniques can be employed, such as regression analysis, decision trees, and neural networks. Additionally, the model can be optimized by using feature selection and hyperparameter tuning techniques. The resulting model can provide valuable insights into the potential future performance of NGMS stock, enabling investors to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or holding their shares.1,2,3,4,5

ML Model Testing

F(Multiple Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NGMS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NGMS stock holders

a:Best response for NGMS target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NGMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

NGMS NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

NeoGames S.A.'s financial outlook is promising, driven by its expanding market presence, diversified revenue streams, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on regulated markets, innovative product portfolio, and player engagement initiatives position it well for continued growth. NeoGames' strong financial performance in recent years is expected to continue, with analysts projecting steady revenue growth and improving profitability. The company's increasing investment in technology and product development should further enhance its competitive advantage. NeoGames' strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as its recent acquisition of Aspire Global, are expected to contribute to its revenue growth and market expansion. The company's experienced management team and robust financial position provide a solid foundation for executing its growth strategies. NeoGames' commitment to responsible gaming and compliance further strengthens its long-term prospects. Overall, the company's solid financial foundation, diversified revenue streams, and focus on innovation position it well for continued success in the rapidly growing online gaming industry. Some specific financial data points that support NeoGames' positive outlook include: * Revenue grew by approximately 30% in 2023 compared to the previous year, driven by strong organic growth and contributions from acquisitions. * Net income increased by approximately 40% in 2023, reflecting improved profitability and cost management. * The company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin has been expanding in recent years, indicating increasing operational efficiency. * NeoGames has a strong balance sheet with low debt levels and a healthy cash position, providing financial flexibility for future investments and acquisitions. The company's financial outlook is subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including regulatory changes, intense competition, and economic downturns. However, NeoGames' strong track record, experienced management team, and commitment to innovation mitigate these risks and position the company for continued success in the online gaming industry.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares' market overview and competitive landscape are characterized by steady growth, technological advancements, and intense competition in the online lottery and gaming industry. The company operates in a vibrant market that has witnessed significant expansion in recent years due to the rising popularity of online gambling and the proliferation of internet-connected devices. This growth has attracted numerous competitors, leading to a dynamic and competitive landscape. Key market trends include the increasing adoption of mobile gaming, the growing popularity of skill-based games, and the expansion of regulated online gaming markets. These trends have spurred innovation and technological advancements, with companies investing heavily in developing cutting-edge platforms and engaging games to attract and retain players. Within this competitive landscape, NeoGames S.A. has established a strong position by focusing on developing innovative and entertaining games, expanding into new markets, and forging strategic partnerships. The company's portfolio includes a diverse range of lottery games, casino games, and sports betting products, catering to the preferences of a wide player base. Its geographical reach spans multiple countries, including the United States, Canada, and Europe, enabling it to tap into diverse markets and mitigate risks associated with regulatory changes or economic fluctuations in any single region. NeoGames S.A. faces competition from well-established players in the industry, such as Scientific Games, IGT, and Lottomatica, as well as emerging startups bringing fresh ideas and disruptive technologies. The competitive intensity varies across different segments and markets, with some regions having stricter regulations or higher market concentration. To stay ahead in this competitive environment, NeoGames S.A. continually invests in research and development, focusing on creating innovative games and enhancing its platform's capabilities. The company also emphasizes compliance and regulatory adherence, ensuring that its operations meet the highest standards and maintain player trust. Despite the challenges posed by the competitive landscape, NeoGames S.A. has demonstrated resilience and agility, adapting to changing market dynamics and evolving player preferences. The company's commitment to innovation, strategic partnerships, and geographical expansion positions it well to navigate the competitive landscape and capitalize on growth opportunities in the online lottery and gaming industry.

Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares have a promising future outlook due to several key factors. Firstly, the global online lottery market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the increasing popularity of digital entertainment and the convenience of playing lotteries online. NeoGames is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth with its comprehensive portfolio of innovative online lottery solutions, including its proprietary platform and a wide range of engaging games. Secondly, NeoGames has a strong track record of success, having consistently delivered financial growth and profitability. The company's revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in the past three years, and it has maintained a healthy profit margin. This track record of success indicates that NeoGames is well-managed and capable of executing its growth strategies effectively. Thirdly, NeoGames has a number of strategic partnerships in place with leading lottery operators around the world. These partnerships provide NeoGames with access to a large and growing customer base and help to drive revenue growth. Additionally, NeoGames is continuously investing in research and development to enhance its platform and games, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of the online lottery industry. Overall, the combination of a growing market, a strong track record, strategic partnerships, and a commitment to innovation positions NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares for continued growth and success in the future.

Operating Efficiency

NeoGames S.A., a leading provider of online gaming services, has demonstrated impressive operating efficiency in its financial performance. The company's consistent revenue growth and profitability reflect its effectiveness in leveraging its technology, market reach, and operational capabilities. In 2021, NeoGames achieved a revenue of $144.4 million, representing an increase of 50% year-over-year. This surge was driven by strong growth in the company's lottery and iLottery segments, benefiting from increased player engagement and expanded geographic reach. Despite the challenging economic conditions, NeoGames maintained a healthy gross profit margin of 66.9% in 2021, indicating its ability to control costs and maintain pricing power. The company's operating expenses remained well-managed, resulting in a significant increase in operating income from $13.6 million in 2020 to $38.6 million in 2021. NeoGames' robust operating performance translated into a remarkable net income of $26.8 million in 2021, compared with a loss of $1.9 million in the previous year. This turnaround highlights the company's ability to generate substantial profits from its operations. Moreover, NeoGames' balance sheet remained strong, with a significant cash position and low debt levels, providing a solid financial foundation for future growth and strategic investments. The company's operating efficiency and solid financial performance position it well to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in the rapidly evolving online gaming landscape.

Risk Assessment

NeoGames S.A. Ordinary Shares possess inherent risk factors that investors should carefully consider before making investment decisions. These risks encompass various aspects of the company's operations, financial health, and industry dynamics: 1. Market Competition: NeoGames operates in a competitive online gaming and lottery industry, facing intense competition from established players and emerging disruptors. Intense rivalry could limit market share gains, pricing power, and profitability. 2. Regulatory Uncertainties: The gaming industry is subject to evolving regulatory environments across different jurisdictions. Changes in regulations, licensing requirements, or taxation policies can adversely affect NeoGames' operations, revenue streams, and compliance costs. 3. Technological Advancements: The online gaming industry is characterized by rapid technological advancements and innovation. Failure to keep pace with these advancements or adapt to changing consumer preferences could result in market share loss and reduced competitiveness. 4. Customer Acquisition and Retention: NeoGames' success relies on acquiring and retaining customers in a highly competitive market. Factors such as changing consumer preferences, fierce competition, and the emergence of new gaming platforms pose challenges in maintaining a loyal customer base. 5. Dependence on Key Personnel: NeoGames' operations and success are heavily reliant on the expertise and contributions of its key management personnel. The loss or departure of key individuals could disrupt operations and negatively impact the company's performance. 6. Intellectual Property Protection: NeoGames' competitive advantage stems from its intellectual property rights, including software, patents, and trademarks. Failure to adequately protect these assets or infringement claims by competitors could harm the company's reputation and financial performance. 7. Cybersecurity Risks: NeoGames' online gaming platform is vulnerable to cybersecurity breaches, data breaches, and hacking attempts. A successful cyberattack could compromise sensitive customer information, disrupt operations, and damage the company's reputation. 8. Economic Downturns: Economic downturns or recessions can adversely affect consumer spending on entertainment and gaming activities, leading to reduced demand for NeoGames' products and services. 9. Currency Fluctuations: NeoGames operates in multiple countries with different currencies. Fluctuations in exchange rates can impact the company's revenue, expenses, and profitability, particularly if the company does not effectively manage its foreign exchange risk. 10. Litigation Risks: NeoGames may be subject to legal challenges, regulatory investigations, or lawsuits related to its operations, products, or services. Unfavorable outcomes in such cases could result in substantial financial penalties, reputational damage, and operational disruptions.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
  3. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. MRNA: The Next Big Thing in mRNA Vaccines. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  4. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  5. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  6. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.