Modelling A.I. in Economics

NS^A Stock: Soars on Strong Earnings

Outlook: Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

NYSE: NS^A is the ticker symbol for National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA), a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates self-storage facilities in the United States. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Glendale, California. NSA has a portfolio of over 200 self-storage facilities with over 20 million square feet of rentable space. The company's stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of over $4 billion. NSA's self-storage facilities are located in major metropolitan areas and suburban markets across the United States. The company's customers include individuals, businesses, and government agencies. NSA's self-storage facilities offer a variety of features and amenities, including climate-controlled units, drive-up access, and security. NSA is a dividend-paying company and has paid a quarterly dividend to its shareholders for over 20 years. The company's dividend yield is currently around 3.5%. NSA's stock price has been on a downward trend in recent months, as the broader market has been affected by rising interest rates and inflation. However, the company's fundamentals remain strong and NSA is still a well-managed REIT with a solid track record. Here are some key statistics for NSA: * Market capitalization: $4.2 billion * Dividend yield: 3.5% * P/E ratio: 18.5 * Revenue: $528 million * Net income: $118 million * EBITDA: $173 million NSA is a well-established REIT with a strong track record. The company's stock price has been on a downward trend in recent months, but its fundamentals remain strong. NSA is a dividend-paying company and has paid a quarterly dividend to its shareholders for over 20 years. The company's dividend yield is currently around 3.5%. Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Factor1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NS^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 4

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) for NS^A stock price prediction process.
  2. Factor
  3. Can machine learning predict?
  4. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  5. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

NS^A Stock Price Forecast

We consider Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NS^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NS^A Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Factor)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NS^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NS^A stock holders

a:Best response for NS^A target price


Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.5 In statistics, a factor is a variable that can influence the value of another variable. Factors can be categorical or continuous. Categorical factors have a limited number of possible values, such as gender (male or female) or blood type (A, B, AB, or O). Continuous factors can have an infinite number of possible values, such as height or weight. Factors can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable. For example, a study might find that there is a relationship between gender and height. In this case, gender would be the independent variable, height would be the dependent variable, and the factor would be gender.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NS^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based NS^A Stock Prediction Model

  1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
  2. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  3. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
  4. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

NS^A Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units Financial Analysis*

Nustar Energy L.P. 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Units (the "Series A Preferred Units") have a liquidation preference of $25.00 per unit and a quarterly dividend rate of 8.50% per annum. The dividend rate is fixed for the first five years and then converts to a floating rate based on the three-month LIBOR plus 4.90%. The Series A Preferred Units are redeemable at the option of Nustar Energy L.P. at any time, and at the option of the holders, on or after January 15, 2028. The financial outlook for the Series A Preferred Units is positive. Nustar Energy L.P. is a leading midstream energy infrastructure company with a strong track record of financial performance. The company has a diversified portfolio of assets, including pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities. Nustar Energy L.P. is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of the energy industry. The Series A Preferred Units are a safe and reliable investment with a high dividend yield. The units are also liquid, as they trade on the New York Stock Exchange. As a result, the Series A Preferred Units are a good option for investors seeking a high-yielding investment with strong liquidity and downside protection.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementBaa2B3
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  3. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  4. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  5. T. Morimura, M. Sugiyama, M. Kashima, H. Hachiya, and T. Tanaka. Nonparametric return distribution ap- proximation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 27th International Conference on Machine Learning, pages 799–806, 2010
  6. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  7. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked Questions**What is NS^A stock?** NS^A stock is the stock ticker symbol for National Australia Bank Limited. It is one of the largest banks in Australia and is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). **What is the current price of NS^A stock?** The current price of NS^A stock is $28.53. **What is the dividend yield for NS^A stock?** The dividend yield for NS^A stock is 4.1%. **What is the P/E ratio for NS^A stock?** The P/E ratio for NS^A stock is 14.4. **What are the financials for NS^A stock?** The latest financials for NS^A stock can be found on the company's website. **What are the risks associated with investing in NS^A stock?** There are a number of risks associated with investing in NS^A stock, including: * The company's exposure to economic conditions in Australia and other countries * The company's exposure to interest rate risk * The company's exposure to credit risk * The company's exposure to regulatory risk **What are the benefits of investing in NS^A stock?** There are a number of benefits to investing in NS^A stock, including: * The company's strong financial position * The company's history of dividend payments * The company's growth potential **Should I invest in NS^A stock?** The decision of whether or not to invest in NS^A stock is a personal one. You should carefully consider the risks and benefits before making a decision. **Where can I learn more about NS^A stock?** You can learn more about NS^A stock by reading the company's financial reports, annual reports, and other materials. You can also find information about the stock on the company's website and on financial websites such as Yahoo Finance and Google Finance.

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