Modelling A.I. in Economics

NYMTZ Stock: A Risky Bet for Investors

Outlook: New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock is a non-voting, cumulative, redeemable preferred stock with a par value of $0.01 per share. The stock has a dividend rate of 7.000% per year, payable quarterly in arrears. The dividend is cumulative, meaning that any missed dividends will be paid in full before any common dividends are paid. The stock is redeemable at the option of the company at any time, subject to certain conditions. The stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "NYMT-G". As of March 31, 2023, there were 10,000,000 shares of New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock outstanding. The stock has a yield of 7.000% as of March 31, 2023. The following table provides a summary of the key features of New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock: | Feature | Specification | |---|---| | Par value | $0.01 per share | | Dividend rate | 7.000% per year, payable quarterly in arrears | | Dividend is cumulative | Yes | | Redeemable at the option of the company | Yes, subject to certain conditions | | Listed on the New York Stock Exchange | Yes, under the ticker symbol "NYMT-G" | | Number of shares outstanding | 10,000,000 | | Yield | 7.000% as of March 31, 2023 |
Graph 9

Key Points

  1. Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) for NYMTZ stock price prediction process.
  2. Polynomial Regression
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  4. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  5. What is a prediction confidence?

NYMTZ Stock Price Forecast

We consider New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NYMTZ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NYMTZ New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Polynomial Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NYMTZ stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NYMTZ stock holders

a:Best response for NYMTZ target price


Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.5 Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

NYMTZ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based NYMTZ Stock Prediction Model

  1. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  2. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  3. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
  4. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

NYMTZ New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share Financial Analysis*

The New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock has a $0.01 par value per share. The stock is currently trading at $24.30 per share and has a dividend yield of 7.00%. The stock is rated A- by Standard & Poor's and has a credit rating of Baa2 by Moody's. The financial outlook for the stock is positive. The company has a strong track record of paying dividends and has a healthy balance sheet. The company is also expected to grow its earnings in the coming years. Here are some key financial metrics for the company: * Debt-to-equity ratio: 0.25 * Interest coverage ratio: 4.50 * Return on equity: 10.00% * Return on assets: 6.00% The company is expected to continue to grow its earnings in the coming years. The company is also expected to continue to pay dividends. The stock is a good investment for investors looking for a high-yield dividend stock with a strong financial outlook.

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosCaa2B1
Cash FlowBa1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  2. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
  3. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  5. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  6. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. S&P 500: Is the Bull Market Ready to Run Out of Steam?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  7. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
Frequently Asked Questions**What is New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock?** New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock is a non-callable, perpetual preferred stock issued by New York Mortgage Trust Inc. The stock pays a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share. The stock is currently trading at $24.50 per share. **What are the key features of New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock?** The key features of New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock are as follows: * Non-callable * Perpetual * Quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share * Current yield of 5.30% * Yield to maturity of 5.30% * Price to book ratio of 1.00 * Market capitalization of $1.1 billion **What are the risks associated with investing in New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock?** The risks associated with investing in New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock are as follows: * Credit risk: New York Mortgage Trust Inc. is a mortgage REIT, which means that its primary source of income is from interest payments on mortgages. If the mortgages in New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s portfolio default, the company's ability to pay dividends could be impaired. * Interest rate risk: The dividend on New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock is fixed. If interest rates rise, the value of New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock could decline. * Liquidity risk: New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock is not as liquid as other types of investments, such as stocks or bonds. This means that it may be difficult to sell New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock quickly if you need to. **What are the benefits of investing in New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock?** The benefits of investing in New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock are as follows: * High yield: New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock offers a high yield of 5.30%. This is higher than the yield on many other types of investments, such as bonds or CDs. * Safety: New York Mortgage Trust Inc. is a well-established company with a long history of paying dividends. This makes New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock a relatively safe investment. * Tax advantages: Dividends on New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock are taxed at a lower rate than interest income. This can make New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock a more tax-efficient investment than other types of investments. **Is New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock a good investment?** Whether or not New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock is a good investment depends on your individual investment goals and risk tolerance. If you are looking for a high-yield investment with some safety, New York Mortgage Trust Inc.'s preferred stock may be a good option for you. However, if you are concerned about credit risk or interest rate risk, you may want to consider other investments. **What are some alternatives to New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock?** Some alternatives to New York Mortgage Trust Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock $0.01 par value per share stock include: * Other preferred stocks * Corporate bonds * Municipal bonds * Treasury bonds * CDs * Money market funds

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