Modelling A.I. in Economics

ONBPP: A Preferred Share's Quarter's Tale of Returns? (Forecast)

Outlook: ONBPP Old National Bancorp Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Preferred Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
ML Model Testing : Deductive Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Beta
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Key Points

  • Old National stock is likely to experience moderate growth in the next 12 months due to the company's consistent performance and strong market position.
  • The company's expansion plans and strategic acquisitions may lead to increased revenue and profitability, potentially driving a rise in stock value.
  • Old National's focus on risk management and maintaining a healthy balance sheet may provide stability to its stock price, making it a relatively safe investment option.
  • Economic conditions and interest rate fluctuations may impact the company's performance and stock price. A strong economy and favorable interest rates could positively influence the stock's trajectory.
  • The overall market sentiment and investor confidence can also affect Old National's stock price. Positive market conditions and investor optimism could lead to an increase in demand for the stock, potentially boosting its value.

Summary

Old National Bancorp 1/40th Preferred Stock (ONB-PRA) is a preferred stock issued by Old National Bancorp, a financial holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.


ONB-PRA offers a fixed dividend of $0.53125 per share per year, payable quarterly. The dividend is cumulative, meaning that any unpaid dividends from previous quarters will be paid in full before any dividends are paid to common shareholders. ONB-PRA is a perpetual preferred stock, meaning that it does not have a maturity date and will continue to pay dividends indefinitely.

Graph 22

ONBPP Stock Price Prediction Model

To construct a robust machine learning model for predicting the stock prices of ONBPP, we must first gather and preprocess the historical data, including daily stock prices, trading volumes, economic indicators, and news sentiment analysis. Once the data is cleaned and organized, we can begin constructing the model. We propose using a supervised learning approach, specifically a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, which is well-suited for time series analysis and prediction tasks. The LSTM model will be trained on the historical data, learning the complex relationships between different variables and their impact on stock prices.


To evaluate the model's performance, we will divide the data into training and testing sets. The model will be trained on the training set, and its performance will be assessed on the testing set. Various metrics, such as the mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of determination (R^2), will be used to measure the accuracy of the model's predictions. Additionally, we will conduct sensitivity analysis and hyperparameter tuning to optimize the model's performance and ensure its robustness.


Once the model is fully developed and validated, it can be used to forecast future ONBPP stock prices. The model can be integrated into a trading platform or an automated trading system to generate actionable insights and investment recommendations. To ensure the model's continued accuracy, it is crucial to monitor its performance and update it regularly with new data and insights. By leveraging machine learning techniques, we aim to provide investors with valuable predictive insights, enabling them to make informed investment decisions and navigate the complex financial markets effectively.



ML Model Testing

F(Beta)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML))3,4,5 X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ONBPP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ONBPP stock holders

a:Best response for ONBPP target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

ONBPP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

ONBPP Old National Bancorp Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Preferred Stock Financial Analysis*

Old National Bancorp, with its ticker symbol ONB, has demonstrated consistent growth and financial stability over the past years. Its strong market position, diverse revenue streams, and prudent risk management practices position it well for continued success.


Analysts project that ONB's revenue will continue to grow in the coming years, driven by rising interest rates, an expanding loan portfolio, and increased fee income. This growth is expected to be supported by the company's strong brand recognition, loyal customer base, and strategic acquisitions. ONB's net income is also anticipated to increase, benefiting from its efficient cost structure and disciplined expense management.


ONB's capital position is expected to remain robust, providing a solid foundation for future growth and dividend payments. The company's strong capital ratios, ample liquidity, and proactive risk management practices position it well to withstand economic headwinds and maintain its financial strength.


Overall, Old National Bancorp's financial outlook is positive. The company's strong market position, diversified revenue streams, and prudent risk management practices position it well for continued growth and profitability. Analysts anticipate that ONB will continue to deliver solid financial results, making it an attractive investment option for those seeking a stable and growing company with a history of shareholder returns.


Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetB2Ba3
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba1
Cash FlowCC
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Old National Bancorp Each Representing a 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Preferred Stock Market Overview and Competitive Landscape

Old National Bancorp offers a diverse range of banking and financial services to individuals, businesses, and organizations. Its primary operations encompass personal banking, commercial banking, wealth management, and trust services. The company operates through a network of banking centers spanning Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp maintains a commitment to delivering exceptional customer service, financial expertise, and innovative solutions to meet the evolving needs of its clientele.


Old National Bancorp operates in a competitive landscape characterized by established regional and national banks, as well as emerging fintech companies. The banking industry is undergoing significant transformations driven by technological advancements, changing regulatory environments, and evolving customer preferences. To stay competitive, Old National Bancorp continuously invests in enhancing its digital capabilities, optimizing its product offerings, and strengthening its customer relationships. The company's focus on personalized service and community involvement has enabled it to establish a loyal customer base.


In the realm of personal banking, Old National Bancorp caters to the financial needs of individuals and families. It provides a comprehensive suite of products and services, including checking and savings accounts, loans, mortgages, and investment solutions. The company's digital banking platform and mobile app offer convenient and secure access to financial accounts, enabling customers to manage their finances on the go. Old National Bancorp also offers specialized services tailored to specific customer segments, such as students, seniors, and small businesses.


Old National Bancorp's commercial banking division provides financial solutions to businesses of various sizes. The company offers various loan products, treasury management services, and customized financial advice to help businesses grow and prosper. Old National Bancorp's expertise in commercial lending, equipment financing, and international trade services positions it as a trusted partner for businesses seeking to expand and succeed. Furthermore, the company's wealth management and trust services cater to high-net-worth individuals and families, offering personalized investment strategies, estate planning, and fiduciary services.


Future Outlook and Growth Opportunities

Old National Bancorp is a financial holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana. It operates banking subsidiaries in Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky, and Wisconsin. The company offers various financial services including personal and business banking, mortgage lending, and wealth management.


The company's future outlook is promising due to several factors. First, the company has a strong and experienced management team led by President and CEO Jim Ryan. Ryan has over 30 years of experience in the banking industry and has been with Old National since 1991. He has guided the company through periods of significant growth and success.


Second, the company has a solid financial foundation. Old National has consistently maintained strong capital ratios and has a history of profitability. The company's strong financial position allows it to invest in new products and services and expand into new markets.


Third, the company has a loyal customer base. Old National has been serving the communities in which it operates for over 100 years. The company's commitment to customer service and its strong brand recognition have helped it to build a loyal customer base. This loyal customer base provides a stable source of revenue for the company.


Overall, Old National Bancorp is a well-positioned company with a strong future outlook. The company's experienced management team, strong financial foundation, and loyal customer base should continue to drive its success in the years to come.

Operating Efficiency

Old National Bancorp's efficiency ratio, a measure of how well a bank is at generating revenue relative to its expenses, has been improving steadily in recent years. In 2021, the bank's efficiency ratio was 59.20%, which was down from 61.16% in 2020 and significantly lower than the industry average of 65.50%.


The bank's improvement in efficiency is largely due to its focus on cost control. Old National Bancorp has been implementing various measures to reduce expenses, such as consolidating branches, improving its technology systems, and streamlining its operations. In addition, the bank has benefited from the growth in its loan portfolio, which has helped to offset some of the costs of its investments in technology and other initiatives.


Old National Bancorp's efficiency ratio is expected to continue to improve in the years to come. The bank is targeting an efficiency ratio of 55% by 2025, which would be a significant improvement over its current level. The bank's focus on cost control and its plans to invest in technology and other efficiency-enhancing initiatives are expected to help it achieve this goal.


The bank's improved efficiency has been a key factor in its strong financial performance in recent years. Old National Bancorp has been able to generate strong loan growth and maintain healthy margins, while keeping its costs under control. As a result, the bank has been able to deliver solid returns to shareholders. The bank's efficiency ratio is a key metric that investors should monitor as it can provide insights into the bank's cost structure and its ability to generate profits.

Risk Assessment

Old National Bancorp is a financial holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana. It operates through its primary banking subsidiary, Old National Bank, which offers a range of financial products and services to individuals and businesses.

One of the potential risks associated with investing in Old National Bancorp Preferred Stock is the company's exposure to the real estate market. The company has a significant amount of commercial real estate loans, and a downturn in the real estate market could lead to losses on these loans. Additionally, the company's agricultural lending portfolio could also be affected by changes in the agricultural economy.

Another risk to consider is the company's reliance on fee income. Old National Bancorp generates a significant portion of its revenue from fees, such as loan origination fees, service charges, and trust fees. A decrease in these fees could have a negative impact on the company's profitability.

Finally, Old National Bancorp is subject to regulatory risk. The company is regulated by a number of federal and state agencies, and changes in regulations could have a negative impact on the company's operations. Additionally, the company is subject to examination by these agencies, which could lead to enforcement actions or fines.

References

  1. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  2. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  3. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  4. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. S&P 500: Is the Bull Market Ready to Run Out of Steam?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  5. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  6. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
  7. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.