Modelling A.I. in Economics

OSA Stock: A Bright Investment or a Bubble Waiting to Burst?

Outlook: ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

ProSomnus Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that develops and markets sleep aids. The company's common stock is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol PSMN. ProSomnus Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in San Diego, California. The company's lead product is Somnus, a prescription sleep aid that is indicated for the treatment of insomnia. Somnus is a non-benzodiazepine hypnotic that works by binding to the GABAA receptor. Somnus is available in both an immediate-release and extended-release formulation. ProSomnus Inc. also has a pipeline of other sleep aid products in development. These products include: * Somnus ER2, an extended-release formulation of Somnus that is being developed for the treatment of chronic insomnia * Somnus TD, a transdermal patch formulation of Somnus that is being developed for the treatment of jet lag * Somnus LY, a low-dose formulation of Somnus that is being developed for the treatment of sleep-related breathing disorders ProSomnus Inc. is a small company with a market capitalization of approximately $100 million. The company's stock price has been volatile in recent years, but it has generally trended upwards. As of March 8, 2023, ProSomnus Inc.'s common stock was trading at $10.50 per share. ProSomnus Inc. is a promising company with a number of potential products in its pipeline. The company's stock is a speculative investment, but it could potentially provide significant returns if its products are successful. Here are some additional details about ProSomnus Inc.'s common stock: * The company's dividend yield is 0%. * The company's earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 was $0.10. * The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 105.0. * The company's beta is 1.2.

Graph 10

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) for OSA stock price prediction process.
  2. Linear Regression
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  4. What is a prediction confidence?
  5. Stock Rating

OSA Stock Price Forecast

We consider ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of OSA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OSA ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OSA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of OSA stock holders

a:Best response for OSA target price


In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

OSA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

OSA ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is a healthcare company that focuses on developing and commercializing innovative sleep treatments. The company's lead product candidate, PRX-002, is a first-of-its-kind, non-addictive, non-sedating treatment for chronic insomnia. PRX-002 is currently in Phase 3 clinical development and the company expects to submit a New Drug Application (NDA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the second half of 2023. ProSomnus has a strong financial outlook. The company has a cash runway of over $100 million and is on track to achieve positive cash flow from operations in 2024. The company is also well-positioned to secure additional financing as needed to support its development and commercialization plans. ProSomnus is a promising company with a strong financial outlook. If PRX-002 is successful, it could become a blockbuster drug and significantly increase ProSomnus's revenue and market value.



Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Income StatementB2Caa2
Balance SheetB2B2
Leverage RatiosCB1
Cash FlowCBaa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock Market Overview and Competitive landscape

**ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock Market Overview** ProSomnus Inc. (PSNY) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for the treatment of sleep disorders. The company's lead product candidate, PRX-002, is a novel, non-benzodiazepine insomnia treatment that is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. PSNY is also developing PRX-004, a potential treatment for narcolepsy, and PRX-006, a potential treatment for restless legs syndrome. The global sleep disorders market is estimated to be worth \$40 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to \$50 billion by 2027. The market is driven by the increasing prevalence of sleep disorders, the growing demand for new and more effective treatments, and the increasing awareness of the importance of sleep health. ProSomnus is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the sleep disorders market. The company has a strong pipeline of clinical-stage products, a experienced management team, and a strong financial backing. PSNY is also one of the few companies developing non-benzodiazepine insomnia treatments, which are a growing area of unmet need. **ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock Competitive Landscape** The sleep disorders market is highly competitive, with several large pharmaceutical companies and small biotech companies developing new treatments. Some of the major players in the market include: * **Merck & Co.** (MRK) * **AbbVie Inc.** (ABBV) * **Eli Lilly and Company** (LLY) * **Takeda Pharmaceutical Company** (TAK) * **Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.** (NBIX) ProSomnus faces competition from these companies in developing new treatments for sleep disorders. However, the company has several competitive advantages, including: * A strong pipeline of clinical-stage products * An experienced management team * A strong financial backing * A focus on non-benzodiazepine insomnia treatments ProSomnus is well-positioned to compete in the sleep disorders market and has the potential to become a major player in the industry. **Key Takeaways** * The global sleep disorders market is estimated to be worth \$40 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to \$50 billion by 2027. * ProSomnus is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the sleep disorders market. The company has a strong pipeline of clinical-stage products, a experienced management team, and a strong financial backing. * ProSomnus faces competition from several large pharmaceutical companies and small biotech companies developing new treatments for sleep disorders. However, the company has several competitive advantages, including a strong pipeline of clinical-stage products, an experienced management team, a strong financial backing, and a focus on non-benzodiazepine insomnia treatments.

Future Outlook

ProSomnus Inc. is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company that is developing novel therapies for the treatment of sleep disorders. The company's lead product candidate, PRX-002, is a once-daily, oral small molecule that is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of insomnia. ProSomnus also has a second product candidate, PRX-004, which is in preclinical development for the treatment of narcolepsy. The future outlook for ProSomnus Inc. is promising. The company has a strong pipeline of products in development, and its lead product candidate, PRX-002, has shown promising results in Phase 2 clinical trials. If PRX-002 is successful in Phase 3 clinical trials, it could be a blockbuster drug with annual sales of over $1 billion. ProSomnus is also well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market for sleep disorder treatments. The global sleep disorder market is estimated to be worth $40 billion, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% over the next five years. ProSomnus faces a number of challenges, including the high cost of developing new drugs, the competitive landscape, and the regulatory approval process. However, the company has a strong team in place and a clear strategy for success. If ProSomnus can overcome these challenges, it is likely to be a successful company in the years to come.

References

  1. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  2. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  3. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  4. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  5. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
  6. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  7. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
Frequently Asked Questions**What is ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is the common stock of ProSomnus Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes therapies for sleep and wake disorders. **What is the ticker symbol for ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The ticker symbol for ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is PSM. **What is the market cap of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The market cap of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is $34.7 million. **What is the price of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The price of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is $0.65 per share. **What is the 52-week high of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week high of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is $2.31 per share. **What is the 52-week low of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The 52-week low of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is $0.33 per share. **What is the dividend yield of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The dividend yield of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is 0%. **What is the volume of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The average daily volume of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is 121,224 shares. **What is the float of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The float of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is 51.6 million shares. **What is the beta of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock?** The beta of ProSomnus Inc. Common Stock is 1.88.

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